Manufactured goods’ export diversification in Saudi Arabia: A spatial panel approach

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive statistics

Variable	EXP	EXR	TREP	GDPK	GDPP	TII
Mean	3.76	2.56	4.29	−0.98	6.54	0.74
Median	4.19	1.87	4.35	−0.80	6.55	0.72
Maximum	9.09	10.02	4.55	1.62	6.72	2.94
Minimum	−3.60	−1.20	2.98	−4.53	6.36	0.01
Std. Dev.	2.63	2.75	0.21	1.64	0.08	0.57
Skewness	−0.51	0.70	−2.42	−0.29	−0.18	0.36
Kurtosis	2.56	2.45	11.47	1.79	2.38	2.04

Table 2. Pesaran cross-section dependence tests

Variables	EXP	EXR	TREP	GDPK	GDPP	TII
CD-test	40.23***	64.83***	75.47***	26.17***	20.53***	14.32***

Table 3. Panel unit root tests

	IPS		CIPS
Variable	Level	First difference	Level	First difference
EXP	−6.5679***	−10.5538***	−3.119	−4.781
	^(0.0000)	^(0.0000)
GDPK	−3.3111***	−5.1301***	−2.242	−2.552
	^(0.0005)	^(0.0000)
GDPP	−2.4973***	−8.5862***	−2.485	−3.887
	^(0.0063)	^(0.0000)
EXR	−2.5137***	−5.2572***	−2.334	−3.174
	^(0.0060)	^(0.0000)
TREP	−6.9976***	−11.8139***	−3.289	−4.527
	^(0.0000)	^(0.0000)
TII	−6.9386***	−13.0013***	−2.323	−4.292
	^(0.0000)	(0.0000)

Notes: Entries in parentheses are the p-values and the asterisks *, ** and *** are the level of significance at 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. The CPIS’s critical values are −2, −2.07 and −2.18 for 10%, 5% and 1% level, respectively.

Table 4. Results of spatial fixed and random effects models

	Spatial Fixed Effect Model	Spatial Random Effect Model
ρ	0.568***	0.608***
	(0.0567)	(0.0451)
GDPP	0.743***	0.672***
	(0.139)	(0.100)
GDPK	0.564***	0.307**
	(0.194)	(0.137)
TREP	0.359*	0.349*
	(0.189)	(0.192)
EXR	0.209**	0.158**
	(0.105)	(0.0694)
TII	0.00815***	0.00786***
	(0.00209)	(0.00214)
sigma2_e	0.696***	0.738***
	(0.0265)	(0.0289)
Theta		0.108***
		(0.0953)
Intercept		−33.11***
		(4.991)
Observations	1,309	1,309
R-squared	0.214	0.236
Number of countries	77	77
Hausmann test	77.66***
	(0.0000)
LM test fixed Vs. random	67.432 (0.0000)

Notes. Standard errors in parentheses. *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1

Table 5. Direct, indirect and total effects

	Direct Effect	Indirect Effect	Total Effect
GDPP	0.694***	1.034***	1.729***
	(0.0959)	(0.124)	(0.158)
GDPK	0.306**	0.473**	0.780**
	(0.130)	(0.232)	(0.355)
TREP	0.347*	0.514*	0.861*
	(0.189)	(0.283)	(0.465)
EXR	0.164**	0.250**	0.414**
	(0.0727)	(0.125)	(0.194)
TII	0.00801***	0.0121***	0.0201***
	(0.00210)	(0.00391)	(0.00574)

Source: Author’s calculations

Table 6. Potential manufactured exports countries for Saudi Arabia (2010–2016)

Country	Potential US$ million	(Predicted/Actual)	Country	Potential US$ million	(Predicted/Actual)	Country	Potential US$ million	(Predicted/Actual)
China	813.69	1.14	Finland	3.42	1.35	Yemen	−47.21	0.89
Viet Nam	801.27	2.27	Cameroon	2.79	1.15	Malta	−55.89	0.45
Poland	527.26	2.73	Sweden	2.76	1.03	France	−83.51	0.66
Algeria	518.63	1.92	Ireland	2.20	1.23	Jordan	−93.94	0.92
Turkey	471.63	1.27	Tanzania	1.75	1.02	Oman	−95.96	0.84
Malaysia	456.97	1.46	Namibia	1.02	1.18	Morocco	−99.03	0.77
Brazil	315.84	2.12	Malawi	0.37	1.19	Spain	−115.37	0.81
Chile	312.40	5.64	Norway	0.04	1.00	South Africa	−126.32	0.72
U.A.E.	309.38	1.06	Rwanda	−0.12	0.76	Australia	−130.89	0.61
Togo	65.62	2.74	Ethiopia	−0.24	1.00	Italy	−130.97	0.82
Portugal	58.03	2.35	Zambia	−0.58	0.65	Indonesia	−132.30	0.65
Bangladesh	37.27	1.10	Uganda	−0.64	0.97	Thailand	−145.06	0.74
Russia	28.02	1.98	Azerbaijan	−0.69	0.85	Japan	−152.61	0.58
Ukraine	26.27	2.02	Denmark	−0.90	0.54	Egypt	−155.86	0.91
Nigeria	23.79	1.12	Mauritius	−1.04	0.44	U.K.	−161.67	0.73
Greece	20.04	1.17	Mauritania	−1.12	0.88	Pakistan	−189.31	0.78
Côte d’Ivoire	17.23	1.37	Romania	−1.91	0.74	Hong Kong	−198.26	0.38
Belgium	10.54	1.01	Cyprus	−2.30	0.72	Bahrain	−200.50	0.83
Senegal	8.13	1.36	Tunisia	−11.11	0.95	Netherlands	−214.48	0.57
Argentina	7.19	1.24	Canada	−12.26	0.65	Qatar	−228.35	0.79
Ghana	6.75	1.10	Switzerland	−24.13	0.33	Korea	−246.10	0.66
Austria	6.03	1.76	Germany	−26.86	0.89	Kuwait	−355.62	0.68
Kazakhstan	5.91	1.56	New Zealand	−28.54	0.80	Singapore	−366.20	0.87
Mexico	5.32	1.21	Sri Lanka	−31.36	0.60	India	−399.13	0.83
Mozambique	4.10	1.12	Philippines	−32.99	0.46	U.S.	−410.92	0.71
Madagascar	3.78	1.65	Lebanon	−45.11	0.86

Source: Author’s calculations