What determines import demand in Zimbabwe? Evidence from a gravity model

Figures & data

Figure 1. Total Merchandise imports in Zimbabwe (2000 to 2016).

Source: World Bank (2019).

Table 1. Import composition for Zimbabwe

		Share in value in Zimbabwe’s imports, % in:
HS Code	Product label	2002	2008	2013	2018	2004–2018 (average)
‘10	Cereals	2.22	7.62	4.22	4.31	5.79
‘27	Mineral fuels, mineral oils	8.27	11.31	20.99	29.79	20.29
‘30	Pharmaceutical products	1.88	2.14	2.86	3.47	2.46
‘31	Fertilisers	1.05	6.51	13.98	4.71	5.35
‘39	Plastics and articles thereof	5.03	2.15	2.89	4.2	2.96
‘40	Rubber and articles thereof	2.92	1.98	1.29	1.32	1.52
‘72	Iron and steel	3.36	1.34	1.62	2.34	1.75
‘84	Machinery, mechanical appliances	14.18	10.59	8.5	9.34	9.26
‘85	Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof	7.06	5.16	5.55	3.81	5.45
‘87	Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling stock	12.86	15.72	9.31	9.58	10.67

Source: Author’s compilation based on UN COMTRADE data.

Table 2. Zimbabwe’s major importing origins

	Share in value in Zimbabwe’s imports, % in:
Exporters/Origins	2002	2008	2013	2018	2004–2018
South Africa	52.6	62.1	47.5	39.3	45.1
China	1.9	4.9	5.7	5.7	5.3
United Kingdom	4.9	2.4	18.4	3.6	4.6
Japan	2.9	0.7	1.8	3.4	1.5
Zambia	0.9	2.2	3.4	2.8	5.7
India	1.3	1.2	2	2.7	1.9
Mozambique	1.9	2.9	2.6	2	3.5
United Arab Emirates	1.1	0.8	1.3	2	1.3
Botswana	1.9	7.6	2.3	0.8	3.8
United States of America	3.5	4	2.2	0.8	4.2

Source: Author’s compilation based on UNCOMTRADE data.

Table 3. Correlation test

Variables	−1	−2	−3	−4	−5	−6	−7	−8
(1) lngdp_e	1
(2) lngdp_i	0.04	1
(3) lndist	0.08	0	1
(4) lnpop_i	0.06	0.08	0	1
(5) lnpop_e	0.56	0.03	0.38	0.04	1
(6) lnto_e	−0.35	−0.02	−0.12	−0.02	−0.54	1
(7) lnto_i	−0.04	−0.47	0	−0.57	−0.02	0.05	1
(8) lncpi_i	0	0.3	0	0.13	0	−0.02	−0.22	1
(9) lncpi_e	0.12	0.03	0.06	0.05	0.17	−0.29	−0.03	0

Table 4. Stationarity test

	With trend			Without trend
Variable	LLC	IPS	ADF	LLC	IPS	ADF
lnimports	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
lngdp_e	0.01	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.02
lngdp_i	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
lnpop_i	0.00	0.01	0.07	0.01	0.04	0.00
lnpop_e	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
lnto_e	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.00
lnto_i	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00
lncpi_i	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02
lncpi_e	0.01	0.01	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.04

Note: The table shows p-values for the statistics of the respective tests.

Table 5. Main findings

	Traditional Gravity Model		Augmented Gravity Model
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
VARIABLES	Pooled OLS	LSDV	Pooled OLS	LSDV
lngdp_j	0.87***	1.80***	1.01***	1.32**
	(0.07)	(0.41)	(0.09)	(0.57)
lngdp_i	1.56***	1.14***	1.73***	1.91***
	(0.37)	(0.24)	(0.58)	(0.33)
lndist	−1.92***	−3.37***	−1.16***	−1.50*
	(0.14)	(0.46)	(0.29)	(0.79)
lncpi_i			−0.34	−0.35*
			(0.24)	(0.16)
lncpi_ j			−0.03	−0.84
			(0.01)	(0.56)
lnpop_i			−1.46	−1.18
			(2.12)	(1.40)
lnpop_j			−0.10	−4.01***
			(0.07)	(1.41)
language			0.44**	7.69***
			(0.21)	(2.84)
dol			0.78***	0.77***
			(0.25)	(0.14)
cont			2.30***	−1.44
			(0.33)	(1.12)
rta			0.71	6.49**
			(0.61)	(2.67)
lnto_j			1.17***	−0.12
			(0.18)	(0.39)
lnto_i			1.00**	1.22***
			(0.46)	(0.26)
Constant	−26.36***	−30.16***	−23.65	29.94
	(8.48)	(5.86)	(29.34)	(22.91)
Observations	520	520	520	520
R-squared	0.28	0.79	0.48	0.81

Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1.

Table 6. Determinants of imports from countries in Africa and outside Africa

	Africa		Outside Africa
Variables	Pooled OLS	LSDV	Pooled OLS	LSDV
lngdp_j	1.72***	3.90***	0.95***	1.83**
	(0.23)	(1.40)	(0.10)	(0.75)
lngdp_i	1.56*	1.69***	2.00***	2.05***
	(0.93)	(0.56)	(0.64)	(0.39)
lncpi_i	−0.39	0.41*	−0.28	−0.25
	(0.33)	(0.24)	(0.29)	(0.20)
lncpi_j	1.05***	1.10*	−0.03***	−1.85*
	(0.28)	(0.62)	(0.01)	(0.99)
lnpop_i	6.54*	1.48	−1.76	−3.95**
	(3.61)	(3.97)	(2.40)	(1.80)
lnpop_j	−0.99***	−10.66***	0.11	−3.83***
	(0.23)	(2.32)	(0.07)	(1.36)
lndist	−1.68***	−23.13***	−2.66***	11.46
	(0.36)	(5.30)	(0.40)	(8.39)
language	−0.30	−27.40***	0.73***	−0.24
	(0.66)	(6.02)	(0.18)	(0.38)
dol	0.45	0.50*	0.87***	0.87***
	(0.47)	(0.28)	(0.26)	(0.16)
lnto_j	0.49	−0.63	0.97***	0.97
	(0.73)	(0.40)	(0.18)	(0.81)
lnto_i	0.35	0.54	1.32***	1.21***
	(0.87)	(0.45)	(0.48)	(0.34)
cont	2.26***	34.96**	-	-
	(0.52)	(8.90)
rta	1.57***	26.49***	-	-
	(0.57)	(7.78)
Constant	65.52	310.72***	−14.01	−70.62
	(50.12)	(94.36)	(33.94)	(65.07)
Observations	169	169	351	351
R-squared	0.72	0.92	0.38	0.71

Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1.

World Bank. (2019). World development indicators database. https://data.worldbank.org/

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