Remittances, natural resource rent and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Figures & data

Figure 1. Trend of FDI, Remittances and ODA inflows in SSA, 1990–2019

Figure 2. Within-Country remittances inflow (Average) in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2017

Figure 3. Within-Country natural resource rent (Average) in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2017

Figure 4. Trend of oil rent and remittance’s inflows in SSA, 1990–2017

Table 1. Summary statistics (1990–2017)

Variables	N	Mean	Std. Dev.	min	Max
GDP per capita growth	1176	1.426	5.003	−47.503	37.536
Oil rent	1155	3.353	9.382	0	56.285
Remittances	1176	2.414	3.255	0	21.81
Inflation	1176	38.813	708.883	−60.496	23,773.132
Forest rent	1155	6.583	6.465	0	40.427
Natural gas rent	1176	.076	.384	0	4.861
FDI	1176	42.632	10.915	15.7	85.2
Financial deepening	1154	3.817	7.657	−8.703	103.337
Labor participation rate	1176	68.179	11.737	41.783	91.102
Capital	1176	20.31	8.319	−2.424	61.469

Note: Obs. represents observations, Std Dev. represents standard deviation, Min. represents minimum, and Max. represents maximum.

Table 2. Bivariate results on the effects of remittances and natural resource rent on economic growth in SSA (Dependent variable: GDP per capita growth)

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Remittances	0.0270**
	(0.0124)
Oil rent		−0.0041**
		(0.0157)
Forest rent			−0.1031***
			(0.0226)
Natural gas rent				0.6527*
				(0.3766)
Constant	1.3609***	1.4737***	2.1336***	1.4143***
	(0.1502)	(0.1544)	(0.2062)	(0.1455)
Observations	1,204	1,183	1,183	1,204
R-squared	0.0039	0.0001	0.0174	0.0025
Adjusted R-Squared	0.00311	0.000790	0.0166	0.00166

Table 3. Pooled OLS results of effect of remittances, oil rent, forest rent and natural gas rent on economic growth (Dependent variable: GDP per capita growth)

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
GDP per capita growth	−0.1397***	−0.1413***	−0.1383***	−0.1394***	−0.1327***
	(0.0290)	(0.0290)	(0.0289)	(0.0290)	(0.0290)
Inflation	−0.0005**	−0.0005**	−0.0005**	−0.0005**	−0.0005**
	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)
FDI	−0.0069	0.0064	0.0037	0.0167	−0.0068
	(0.0209)	(0.0205)	(0.0209)	(0.0208)	(0.0208)
Financial deepening	0.0390***	0.0414***	0.0380**	0.0256	0.0417***
	(0.0147)	(0.0148)	(0.0148)	(0.0158)	(0.0147)
Labour participation rate	0.0103	−0.0007	−0.0006	0.0139	0.0096
	(0.0130)	(0.0127)	(0.0127)	(0.0138)	(0.0130)
Capital	0.0870***	0.0846***	0.0793***	0.0720***	0.0901***
	(0.0190)	(0.0192)	(0.0189)	(0.0191)	(0.0192)
Remittances	0.1503***				0.1260***
	(0.0467)				(0.0479)
Oil rent		−0.0267*			−0.0398**
		(0.0160)			(0.0193)
Forest rent			0.3383
			(0.3918)
Natural gas rent				−0.0670**
				(0.0280)
Remittances*oil rent					0.0297**
					(0.0144)
Net effect	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	0.0598
Threshold	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	1.340
Constant	−3.0261**	−1.9193*	−1.7817	−1.6819	−3.0621**
	(1.2107)	(1.1617)	(1.1689)	(1.1632)	(1.2103)
Observations	1,154	1,154	1,154	1,154	1,154
R-squared	0.0494	0.0431	0.0414	0.0455	0.0539
Adjusted R-Squared	0.0444	0.0381	0.0364	0.0406	0.0473

Standard errors in parentheses; ***, **, *: significance levels at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively.

Table 4. Fixed-effect and random-effect results on the effect of remittances, oil rent, forest rent and natural gas rent on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (dependent variable is the GDP per Capital Growth)

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)
Lag GDP per capita growth	−0.0614**	−0.1397***	−0.0625**	−0.1413***	−0.0554*	−0.1383***	−0.0505*	−0.1394***	−0.0441*	−0.133***
	(0.0297)	(0.0290)	(0.0297)	(0.0290)	(0.0296)	(0.0289)	(0.0296)	(0.0290)	(0.0296)	(0.0290)
Inflation	−0.0004*	−0.0004**	−0.0004*	−0.0004**	−0.0004*	−0.0004**	−0.0004*	−0.0004**	−0.0004*	−0.0004**
	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)
FDI	0.0086	0.0005	0.0221	0.0114	0.0166	0.0202	0.0266	0.0128	0.0162	−0.0008
	(0.0237)	(0.0220)	(0.0239)	(0.0220)	(0.0232)	(0.0217)	(0.0232)	(0.0215)	(0.0236)	(0.0219)
Financial deepening	0.0547*	0.0457**	0.0606**	0.0466**	0.0710**	0.0360*	0.0408	0.0457**	0.0375	0.0436**
	(0.0293)	(0.0192)	(0.0294)	(0.0194)	(0.0293)	(0.0200)	(0.0294)	(0.0188)	(0.0295)	(0.0187)
Labour participation rate	−0.1626**	0.0027	−0.1708**	−0.0075	−0.1502**	0.0115	−0.1765**	−0.0055	−0.1719**	0.0049
	(0.0722)	(0.0193)	(0.0730)	(0.0192)	(0.0721)	(0.0208)	(0.0719)	(0.0180)	(0.0718)	(0.0183)
Capital	0.0683***	0.0819***	0.0614***	0.0748***	0.0562**	0.0691***	0.0574**	0.0747***	0.0626***	0.0823***
	(0.0234)	(0.0209)	(0.0233)	(0.0209)	(0.0232)	(0.0210)	(0.0231)	(0.0208)	(0.0234)	(0.0209)
Remittances	0.1790**	0.1539***							0.1770**	0.144**
	(0.0723)	(0.0568)							(0.0733)	(0.0568)
Oil rent			0.1486***	−0.0235					0.1381***	−0.0275*
			(0.0367)	(0.0157)					(0.0364)	(0.0159)
Forest rent					−0.1989***	−0.0912**
					(0.0535)	(0.0354)
Natural gas rent							0.1552***	0.0049	0.1618***	−0.00437
							(0.0368)	(0.0210)	(0.0417)	(0.0246)
Remittances*oil rent									−0.0086	0.0203
									(0.0187)	(0.0160)
Constant	8.3472	−2.7354	9.1990*	−1.6073	8.7703	−1.7601	9.9578*	−1.7107	9.2922*	−2.829*
	(5.4017)	(1.6998)	(5.4397)	(1.6776)	(5.3774)	(1.6895)	(5.3728)	(1.5863)	(5.3708)	(1.623)
Net effect	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a
Threshold	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a
Observations	1,154	1,154	1,154	1,154	1,154	1,154	1,154	1,154	1,154	1,154
Countries	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42	42
R-squared	0.0382	-	0.0330	-	0.0449	-	0.0482	-	0.0532	-
Adjusted R-Squared	−0.0026	-	−0.0081	-	0.0043	-	0.0077	-	0.0112	-

Standard errors in parentheses; ***, **, *: significance levels at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively; n.a: not available.

FE (1), … … ., FE (7) are fixed effect models while RE (1), … …, RE (7) are random effect models.

Table 5. Dynamic system GMM results on the effects of remittances, oil rent, forest rent and natural gas rent on economic growth in SSA (Dependent variable: GDP per capita growth)

Variables	(1)	(3)	(2)	(4)	(5)
Economic growth (−1)	0.1477***	0.1391***	0.1459***	0.1487***	−0.2177***
	(0.0107)	(0.0083)	(0.0107)	(0.0109)	(0.0304)
Inflation	−0.0004***	−0.0004***	−0.0004***	−0.0004***	−0.0025
	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0027)
FDI	0.0078	0.0138**	0.0035	0.0063	0.1671
	(0.0074)	(0.0066)	(0.0072)	(0.0069)	(0.1203)
Financial Deepening	0.0333***	0.0303***	0.0399***	0.0375***	0.3822
	(0.0063)	(0.0062)	(0.0054)	(0.0054)	(0.3442)
Labour Participation rate	−0.0037	0.0070	−0.0002	−0.0027	3.2180***
	(0.0062)	(0.0072)	(0.0062)	(0.0061)	(0.8567)
Investment	0.0678***	0.0608***	0.0629***	0.0720***	1.8280***
	(0.0083)	(0.0087)	(0.0080)	(0.0077)	(0.2164)
Remittances	0.0145***				0.0017
	(0.0049)				(0.2157)
Forest rent		−0.0461***			0.8967**
		(0.0133)			(0.3848)
Natural gas rent			0.1217		−24.0676***
			(0.0893)		(6.9179)
Oil rent				−0.0226***	−0.3168*
				(0.0035)	(0.1598)
Remittances*Oil rent					0.4794***
					(0.0966)
Constant	−1.3445**	−1.4947***	−1.6858***	−1.5340***	−273.5065***
	(0.5703)	(0.5144)	(0.5466)	(0.5271)	(64.0810)
Net effect	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	1.129
Threshold	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	0.6608
Hansen P-Value	0.276	0.255	0.262	0.277	0.196
Sargan P-Value	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
AR (1)	0.000394	0.000466	0.000434	0.000385	0.00158
AR (2)	0.940	0.866	0.930	0.944	0.0287
Countries	43	43	43	43	43
No. of Instruments	42	42	42	42	39
Observations	1,182	1,182	1,182	1,182	1,182

Standard errors in parentheses; ***, **, *: significance levels at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively. Test the significance are the bolden values are in two ways. (1) The significance of estimated coefficients and the Wald test. (2) Failing to reject the null hypotheses of: (a) no autocorrelation in the AR (1) and (AR (2) tests and; (b) the validity of the selected instruments lies in the Sargan and Hansen tests. na: not available because at least one estimated coefficient is needed for the calculation of net effects or thresholds.

Table 6. Dynamic system GMM results on the effects of remittances and natural resource rent on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (Dependent variable: GDP growth)

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
Lagged GDP growth	0.1860***	0.1820***	0.1875***	0.1866***	0.1794***
	(0.0116)	(0.0113)	(0.0116)	(0.0115)	(0.0118)
Inflation	−0.0003***	−0.0003***	−0.0003***	−0.0003***	−0.0003***
	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0000)	(0.0001)
FDI	0.0148***	0.0225***	0.0117*	0.0142***	0.0235
	(0.0054)	(0.0050)	(0.0059)	(0.0050)	(0.0235)
Financial deepening	0.0111**	0.0044	0.0123***	0.0134***	−0.0077
	(0.0041)	(0.0044)	(0.0039)	(0.0042)	(0.0545)
Labour participation rate	0.0095	0.0171**	0.0086	0.0098	0.0050
	(0.0066)	(0.0082)	(0.0064)	(0.0066)	(0.0687)
Capital	0.0718***	0.0675***	0.0699***	0.0726***	0.0613*
	(0.0067)	(0.0060)	(0.0061)	(0.0061)	(0.0352)
Remittances	0.0080*				0.0086*
	(0.0046)				(0.0055)
Forest rent		−0.0416***			−0.0445**
		(0.0126)			(0.0203)
Natural gas rent			0.2712***		0.6059
			(0.0969)		(0.6230)
Oil rent				−0.0060	−0.0232***
				(0.0037)	(0.0066)
Remittances*oil rent					0.0233***
					(0.0141)
Constant	0.6215	0.7524	0.6966	0.5417	2.2090
	(0.5166)	(0.4660)	(0.4844)	(0.5080)	(7.8098)
Net effects	n.a	n.a	n.a	n.a	0.0867
Thresholds	n.a	a.a	n.a	n.a	1.005
Observations	1,182	1,182	1,182	1,182	1,182
Countries	43	43	43	43	43
Number of Instruments	42	42	42	42	39
Hansen P-Value	0.288	0.307	0.299	0.288	0.339
AR (1)	0.00019	0.0002	0.0002	0.0002	0.0002
AR (2)	0.8350	0.8720	0.8250	0.8310	0.8530

Standard errors in parentheses; ***, **, *: significance levels at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively. Test the significance are the bolden values are in two ways. (1) The significance of estimated coefficients and the Wald test. (2) Failing to reject the null hypotheses of: (a) no autocorrelation in the AR (1) and (AR (2) tests and; (b) the validity of the selected instruments lies in the Sargan and Hansen tests. na: not available because at least one estimated coefficient is needed for the calculation of net effects or thresholds.

Table A1. Description of Variables

Variables	Description of variables and sources	Expected sign
GDP	Computed as lagged GDP at constant 2010 US$. Source: World Positive Development Indicators, World Bank.	Positive
Economic Growth	Growth as real GDP per capita growth in annual Percentages of US$. Source: World Development Indicators.	Positive
Inflation	Annual percentage of GDP deflator Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank.	Negative
Oil rent	Annual percentage difference between the values of crude oil and total cost of production. Source: World Development Indicators	Positive
Capital	Gross fixed capital formation as a percentage of GDP. Source: World Development Indicators	Positive
Financial deepening	Domestic credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP. Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank	Positive
Remittances	The Ratio of personal transfer and compensation of Employees and GDP at current US$. Source: World Bank	Positive
Foreign Direct Investment	Net inflows of investments as a percentage of GDP. Source: International Monetary Fund International Financial Service and Balance of Payment Statistics	Positive
Forest rent	Forest rents are round wood harvest times the product of average prices and a region-specific rental rate. Source: World Bank	Positive
Natural gas rent	The total revenue that can be generated from the extraction of the natural gas, less the cost of extracting the gas. Source: World Bank	Positive

Table B1. Pairwise correlations matrix (1990–2017)

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)
GDP per capita growth	1.000
Oil rent	−0.005	1.000
Remittances	0.091	−0.159	1.000
Inflation	−0.085	−0.011	−0.016	1.000
Forest rent	−0.130	−0.191	−0.061	0.087	1.000
Natural gas rent	0.052	0.134	−0.051	−0.009	−0.037	1.000
FDI	0.076	0.053	0.182	−0.021	0.025	0.242	1.000
Financial deepening	0.138	0.149	0.068	−0.063	−0.412	0.162	0.300	1.000
Capital	0.168	0.212	−0.042	−0.054	−0.249	0.078	0.284	0.337	1.000
Population growth	−0.028	−0.082	−0.222	0.012	0.445	0.064	0.010	−0.163	−0.102	1.000

^{Where Y: Economic growth; OILRENT: oil rent; REM: Remittances; INFL: Inflation; F. RENT: Forest Rent; NATG.RENT: Natural gas rent; FDI: Foreign Direct Investment; FINDEP: Financial Deepening; L: labor participation rate; K: Investment.}

Table C1. Summary of literature on the impact of remittances on economic growth and Channels with remittances influence economic growth

Author(s) and Year	Data	Objective	Time	Methodology	Result
Giuliano and Ruiz-Arranz (2009)	Panel data of 100 developing countries	Importance of remittances in promoting economic growth through the financial sector.	1975–2002	Dynamic Panel data analysis	Positive joint effect
Sobiech (2019)	Panel data of 203 countries	Remittances and financial institutions on economic growth	1960–2011	SGMM	Positive joint effect
Meyer and Shera (2017)	Balanced panel data with six developing countries in Europe	Determine whether remittances have a negative or positive effect on growth.	1999–2013	OLS, Fixed-effects and Random effects	Positive
Feeny et al. (2014)	209 countries including 25 SIDs	Impact of remittances on economic growth in SIDs	1971–2010	OLS and GMM estimates	Positive
Peprah et al. (2019)	Macro data in Ghana	Determine the joint effect of financial development and remittances on economic growth.	1984–2015	Dynamic heterogeneous ARDL model	Negative
Adams and Klobodu (2016)	33 SSA countries	The Joint effect of remittances and governance on economic growth	1970–2012	SGMM	No impact
Chowdhury (2016)	33 remittance receiving countries	The Joint effect of remittances and financial development on growth	1979–2011	SGMM	Positive joint effect
Eggoh et al. (2019)	49 developing countries	Remittances and growth	2001–2013	Panel Smooth Transition and SGMM	Positive
Chami et al. (2005)	Panel aggregate data that includes up to 113 countries over 29 years	Examine whether remittances can be a source of capital for economic development	1970–1998	Panel estimation	Negative
Ahmed (2010)	Time-series data of Bangladesh	Worker’s remittances have growth impact on Bangladesh economy	1995–2006	A Modified version of the model developed by Chami et al., 2003	Negative
Karagoz (2009)	Time-series data in Turkey	Whether workers remittances have a growth impact on Turkish economy	1970–2005	A Modified version of the model developed by Chami et al., 2003	Negative
Koyame-Marsh (2012)	Time-series data of each 10 members of ECOWAS	Impact of workers’ remittances on real GDP growth	1976–2007	Time series and panel analysis	Negative
Nyeadi and Atiga (2014)	Time-series data of Ghana	The Linkage between remittances and economic growth in Ghana	1980–2012	Granger-causality and cointegration tests under VAR framework	Unidirectional link
Fund (2005)	101 developing countries	The Impact of remittances on economic growth	1970–2003	Panel analysis	No impact
Adams & Klobodu (2016)	33 SSA countries	Relationship between Remittances and growth	1970–2012	Using SGMM	No relationship
Ahamada and Coulibaly (2013)	20 SSA countries	Relationship between remittances and growth	1980–2007	Panel Granger Causality	No impact

Table D1. Summary of Literature on Natural resources Rent, Transmission Channels and Economic Growth

Authors and year	Data	Objective	Time	Methodology	Result
Tiba (2019)	12 oil exporting countries	Impact of oil rent on economic growth	1990–2015	Smooth Transition model	Negative
Arezki and Van der Ploeg (2010)	Cross country data of Sachs and Wachs	Natural resource curse, institutional quality and growth	1965–2000	OLS and Instrumental variables	Joint positive effect
Ogbonna and Ebimobowei (2012)	Nigeria	Link between petroleum income and economic growth	2000–2009	Simple Regression Model	Positive
Abdulahi et al. (2019)	13 rich resource country in SSA	Resource rent and growth nexus	1998–2016	SGMM	Positive till a certain threshold
Epo and Faha (2020)	44 African countries	Institutions, natural resources and economic growth	1996–2016	Dynamic panel-data instrumental/smooth transition regression	Positive joint effect
Cavalcanti et al. (2011)	53 oil exporting and importing countries	Effect of oil abundance on economic growth	1980–2006	Common Correlated Effects and OLS	Positive
Hao et al. ()	30 provinces in China	Relationship between forest resources and economic growth in China based on environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis	2002–2015	SGMM	Positive
Joshi and Beck (2016)	OECD and non-OECD countries	Relationship between resources and growth	1974–2013	GMM model	U-shaped in Africa and N-shaped in OECD income countries
Olayungbo (2019)	Cross-section data of Nigeria	Impact of oil export revenue on economic growth	1970–2015	Bayesian time-varying parameter model	Positive
Asekunowo and Olaiya (2012)	Nigeria	relationship between natural resource and economic growth	1974–2008	Multivariate vector and auto regression model	Positive
Sachs and Warner (1995)	Botswana, Oman and Saudi	relationship between natural resource and economic growth	1970–1989	Cross-country growth regressions	Negative
De et al. (2019)	Gulf Cooperation Council Countries	Oil prices andRemittanceoutflow	1971–2017	OLS, FE and RE	Positive relationship
Zahran (2019)	Egypt	Relationship between Oil prices and remittances	1960–2016	Vector Autoregressive	Positive relationship
Makhlouf and Kasmaoui (2017)	Morocco	The impact of remittances on oil prices	2004–2010	Static and Dynamic Regression	Positive relationship

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