Natural disasters, mitigation and household welfare in Indonesia: Evidence from a large-scale longitudinal survey

Figures & data

Table 1. Number of human victims of natural disasters in Indonesia 1969–2015

Natural Disaster	1969–1985					1986–1999					2000–2015
	Death	Injured	Missing	Affected	Evacuated	Death	Injured	Missing	Affected	Evacuated	Death	Injured	Missing	Affected	Evacuated
Earthquake	975	866	1,000	47,547	5,434	3,925	10,838	436	3,66,083	91,750	8,527	57,934	64	1,94,757	26,80,747
Earthquake and Tsunami	571	273	1,940	—	171	2,497	—	1,017	381	—	1,67,780	3,988	6,333	43,26,687	4,62,339
Eruption	415	113	3	—	14,161	69	12	—	5,452	—	427	3,478	4	54,674	3,30,849
Floods	575	2,520	239	32,677	14,780	845	1,910	192	2,28,163	1,600	2,156	1,90,588	668	153,74,281	51,16,347
Floods and Landslide	702	48	5,001	3,000	496	317	103	65	4,432	—	3,737	43,165	520	6,46,379	5,85,777
Drought	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	—	—	28,58,889	—
Forest Fire	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	37	13,485	—	4,43,267	2,739
Strong Wind	7	9	—	—	625	11	13		2,616	2,278	328	2,752	41	2,48,797	25,619
Others	506	—	—	—	—	3,788	—		3,02,573	—	6,464	87,398	2,522	39,395	1,09,713
Total	3,751	3,829	8,183	83,224	35,667	11,452	12,876	1,710	9,09,700	95,628	1,89,458	4,02,788	10,152	241,87,126	93,14,130

Source: Author’s compilation based on the BNPB data (available at http://dibi.bnpb.go.id, accessed per 24 January 2016)

Table 2. Economic damages caused by natural disasters in Indonesia 1990–2015

Damages	Heavily Damaged Houses	Moderately Damaged Houses	Lightly Damaged Houses	Prayer Facilities	Education Facilities	Health Facilities	Roads (km)	Damaged Soil (Ha)
Floods	83,168	6,691	164,012	2,398	6,102	2,063	61,238	1,470,702
Landslides	11,515	1,756	10,727	152	97	20	1,458	68,409
Floods & landslides	12,869	1,344	25,621	269	1,025	262	1,179	291,408
Abrasions	3,457	414	3,859	19	25	6	411	297
Earthquakes	242,125	6,870	356,706	9,109	20,246	1,873	2,037	1,993
Earthquakes & tsunamis	325,157	-	97,403	29	1,262	254	34,904	58,087
Forest fires	106	5	12	1	2	-	-	414
Drought	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1,715,360
Volcanic eruptions	14,888	158	9,585	41	375	26	6	52,682
Waterspouts (strong winds)	34,290	19,083	105,521	412	551	82	134	16,754
Total	727,575	36,321	773,446	12,430	29,685	4,586	101,368	3,676,106

Source: Author’s compilation based on BNPB data (available at http://dibi.bnpb.go.id; accessed 28 July 2016

Table 3. Damage facilities at village level caused by natural disaster

Damage of Facilities	Proportion of Village (%)
	Yes	No
Roads	33.33	66.67
Bridges	11.70	88.3
Ports	1.17	98.83
Railways	0.58	99.42
Schools	16.37	83.63
Health Center Facilities	7.60	92.4
Housing	42.11	57.89
Village Office	13.45	86.55
Worship Place	17.54	82.46
Business Center	8.19	91.81
Other Public Facilities	4.68	95.32
Number of Village	171

Source: Author’s calculation based on IFLS 4

Figure 1. Household experiences of disaster (N = 12,987).Source: Author’s calculation based on IFLS4

Table 4. Cross-tabulation between disaster experience and poverty status in 2007

Poverty Status	All Disaster		Flood		Flood and Others		Landslide		Earthquake		Tsunami		Fire		Others
	No Exp.	Exp.	No Exp.	Exp.	No Exp.	Exp.	No Exp.	Exp.	No Exp.	Exp.	No Exp.	Exp.	No Exp.	Exp.	No Exp.	Exp.
Non Poor	76.0	24.0	93.2	6.8	98.6	1.4	99.4	0.6	87.0	13.0	99.6	0.4	99.2	0.8	99.0	1.0
Poor	72.0	28.0	93.2	6.8	98.6	1.4	99.4	0.6	84.0	16.0	100.0	0.0	98.3	1.7	98.6	1.4

Note: 1 = experience disaster; 0 = no experience disaster

Source: Author’ calculations based on IFLS4

Figure 2. Types of village preparedness for natural disasters (N = 125).Source: Author’s calculation based on IFLS4

Table 5. The impact of disaster on household consumption and poverty in 2007

Variables	Consumption in 2007				Poverty Condition in 2007 (Marginal Effect)
	Model 1a		Model 1b		Model 2a		Model 2b
	Coef.	Robust SE	Coef.	Robust SE	dy/dx	Robust SE	dy/dx	Robust SE
Socio Demographic in 2007
Marital Status (1 = marriage; 0 = others	−0.131***	0.016	−0.047**	0.020	−0.003	0.005	−0.004	0.007
Size of Household Member	−0.139***	0.004	−0.127**	0.004	0.014**	0.001	0.017***	0.001
Educational Attainment (years of schooling)	0.056***	0.000	0.050***	0.002	−0.000**	0.000	−0.0003*	0.000
Age of Household Head	0.0005**	0.001	0.002***	0.001	−0.005***	0.000	−0.006***	0.000
Livestock ownership	−0.050***	0.008	−0.012	0.009	−0.005**	0.002	−0.010***	0.003
Shocks, Disaster and Damage at HH Level
Flood (1 = experience; 0 = others)	0.112***	0.020	0.039	0.026	−0.004	0.005	0.013	0.010
Earthquake (1 = experience; 0 = others)	−0.047**	0.020	−0.087***	0.025	0.013**	0.006	0.019**	0.009
Other Disaster (1 = experience; 0 = others)	−0.188***	0.055	−0.085	0.067	−0.026	0.019	−0.033*	0.028
Log Average Costs of Damage (in IDR)	0.000	0.002	0.000	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.0005***	0.001
Ratio between Costs of Damage and Assistance	0.000	0.000	0.001**	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Village Facilities
Formal Credit Institution (1 = available; 0 = others)			0.056**	0.005			−0.003*	0.002
Medical Facilities (1 = available; 0 = others)			0.083*	0.051			0.006	0.015
Disaster and Damage at Village Level
Drought (1 = experience; 0 = others)			−0.065***	0.023			0.009	0.008
Forest Fire (1 = experience; 0 = others)			−0.140***	0.038			0.030*	0.016
Damages of Connectivity (roads-bridges) (1 = experience; 0 = others)			0.080***	0.018			−0.014***	0.005
Damages of Business Centre (market) (1 = experience; 0 = others)			−0.023	0.041			0.007	0.014
Damages of Other Facilities (1 = experience; 0 = others)			−0.121***	0.030			0.008	0.010
Disaster Preparedness at Village Level
Training and Preparation for Disaster Mitigation (1 = having preparation and training; 0 = others)			0.042***	0.016			−0.013**	0.005
Shelter and others except food storage and volunteer (1 = available; 0 = others)			0.528***	0.100			−0.027	0.019
Food Storage and other preparations (1 = available; 0 = others)			0.133***	0.026			0.004	0.009
Only Early Warning System (1 = available; 0 = others)			−0.011	0.047			0.014	0.017
Constant	13.43***	0.059	12.92***	0.098
Number of Observation	11,902		8,134		11,902		8,134
F-Statistic (Wald Chi-Square)	361.51		113.50		543.76		430.39
R-Squared (Pseudo)	0.264		0.247		0.106		0.103

***p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1

Source: Author’s calculation

Table 6. Marginal effects of the impact of disaster on changing poverty status during 2000–2007 (ordered logit model (model 3))

Variables	Chronic Poverty P00 = 1 & P07 = 1		Transient Poverty (-) P00 = 0 & P07 = 1		Transient Poverty (+) P00 = 1 & P07 = 0		Never Poor P00 = 0 & P07 = 0
	dy/dx	Robust SE	dy/dx	Robust SE	dy/dx	Robust SE	dy/dx	Robust SE
Socio Demographic in 2000
Marital Status (1 = marriage; 0 = others	−0.007**	0.003	−0.005**	0.002	−0.035**	0.014	0.048**	0.019
Change in Marital Status 2000–2007 (1 = divorce; 0 = others)	0.007**	0.003	0.004**	0.002	0.031**	0.015	−0.042**	0.020
Size of Household Member	0.009***	0.001	0.006***	0.001	0.045***	0.003	−0.060***	0.003
Change in Size of Household Member (1 = increase; 0 = others)	0.013***	0.003	0.008***	0.002	0.061***	0.011	−0.083***	0.015
Educational Attainment (years of schooling)	−0.004***	0.000	−0.003***	0.000	−0.022***	0.001	0.029***	0.002
Change in Educational Attainment (1 = increase; 0 = others)	−0.011***	0.002	−0.007***	0.001	−0.054***	0.009	0.071***	0.012
Age of Household Head	−0.0002***	0.000	−0.0001***	0.000	−0.001***	0.000	0.002***	0.000
Livestock ownership	−0.006	0.004	−0.004	0.003	−0.032	0.022	0.042	0.028
Shocks, Disaster and Damage at HH Level
Shock of Death Family Member (1 = experience; 0 = others)	0.003	0.004	0.002	0.002	0.014	0.018	−0.019	0.024
Shock of Being Unemployed (1 = experience; 0 = others)	0.005	0.005	0.003	0.003	0.024	0.022	−0.032	0.030
Flood (1 = experience; 0 = others)	0.003	0.004	0.002	0.002	0.015	0.018	−0.021	0.024
Earthquake (1 = experience; 0 = others)	0.008**	0.004	0.005**	0.003	0.037**	0.017	−0.050**	0.024
Other Disaster (1 = experience; 0 = others)	0.019***	0.006	0.013***	0.005	0.119**	0.049	−0.152**	0.060
Log Average Costs of Damage (in IDR)	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.002	0.000	0.002
Ratio between Costs of Damage and Assistance	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.000	0.001
Village Facilities
Formal Credit Institution (1 = available; 0 = others)	−0.003*	0.002	−0.002*	0.001	−0.016*	0.009	0.021*	0.012
Medical Facilities (1 = available; 0 = others)	−0.021	0.030	−0.013	0.018	−0.086	0.096	0.120	0.143
Disaster and Damage at Village Level
Drought (1 = experience; 0 = others)	0.011***	0.004	0.007***	0.002	0.049***	0.015	−0.066***	0.020
Forest Fire (1 = experience; 0 = others)	0.009	0.006	0.006	0.004	0.039	0.025	−0.053	0.034
Damages of Connectivity (roads-bridges) (1 = experience; 0 = others)	−0.012***	0.002	−0.008***	0.001	−0.063***	0.011	0.083***	0.014
Damages of Business Centre (market) (1 = experience; 0 = others)	0.014*	0.007	0.009**	0.005	0.061**	0.028	−0.084**	0.040
Damages of Other Facilities (1 = experience; 0 = others)	−0.001	0.004	−0.001	0.003	−0.006	0.020	0.008	0.027
Disaster Preparedness at Village Level
Training and Preparation for Disaster Mitigation (1 = having preparation and training; 0 = others)	−0.004*	0.002	−0.003*	0.001	−0.020*	0.010	0.026*	0.014
Shelter and others except food storage and volunteer (1 = available; 0 = others)	−0.001	0.011	−0.001	0.007	−0.008	0.057	0.010	0.076
Food Storage and other preparations (1 = available; 0 = others)	0.004	0.004	0.003	0.003	0.019	0.019	−0.025	0.026
Only Early Warning System (1 = available; 0 = others)	−0.005	0.005	−0.003	0.003	−0.024	0.028	0.032	0.037
Number of Observation	6,285
Wald Chi-Square	656.57
R-Squared (Pseudo)	0.070

*** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1

Note:1. dy/dx is for discrete change of dummy variable from 0 to 1.

2. P00 = 1 refers to poor condition in 2000, while P00 = 0 refers to non-poor condition in 2000.

3. P07 = 1 refers to poor condition in 2007, while P07 = 0 refers to non-poor condition in 2007. Source: Author’s calculation