Decomposition analysis of economic growth in Afar region, Ethiopia

Figures & data

Table 1. Output, population, employment, and productivity, Afar 2010–2018

	2010	2018	% change
Gross value added	8,950,211,277.07	15,939,413,699.05	78.09
Population	1,483,000.00	1,835,000.00	23.74
Working age population	305,323.30	425,603.34	39.39
Employed persons	249,840.22	339,358.19	35.83
Per-capita value added	6,035.21	8,686.33	43.93
output per worker	35,823.74	46,969.29	31.11
employment rate	0.82	0.80	−2.56
Working age population	0.21	0.23	12.65

Table 2. Decomposition of growth in per capita value added, Afar 2010–2018

Decomposition of growth in per capita value added	Ethiopian Birr (ETB)	Percentage of total change in per capita value added
Total Growth in per capita value added (Δy)	2,651.12	100
Growth linked to changes in output per worker (Δϖ)	1,970.46	74.33
Growth linked to changes in employment rate (Δe)	−190.11	−7.17
Growth linked to changes in working age population (Δα)	870.77	32.85

Table 3. Employment by sectors of 15 major economic activities, Afar 2010–2018

Sectors	Employment			Employment per working age population			Employment elasticity
	2010	2018	% change	2010	2018	% change
Agriculture	142,643.05	161,047.29	12.90	0.47	0.38	−19.01	0.34
Mining	740.07	2,217.64	199.65	0.00	0.01	114.97	2.14
Manufacturing	53,596.02	87,186.53	62.67	0.18	0.20	16.70	0.13
Electricity and water	773.50	2,348.84	203.66	0.00	0.01	117.84	2.27
Construction	3,481.29	8,726.33	150.66	0.01	0.02	79.82	1.22
Trade	15,013.90	23,822.87	58.67	0.05	0.06	13.83	0.65
Hotels and restaurants	5,806.88	10,475.18	80.39	0.02	0.02	29.41	0.56
Transport & communications	1,871.29	6,509.22	247.85	0.01	0.02	149.54	1.46
Financial intermediation	112.17	3,267.16	2,812.64	0.00	0.01	1,989.50	4.32
Real estate activities	394.53	−^2	-	0.00	-		-
Public administration	8,197.32	7,076.35	−13.67	0.03	0.02	−338.07	−0.04
Education	8,871.31	10,629.29	19.82	0.03	0.02	−14.04	0.23
Health and social work	4,218.57	5,517.76	30.80	0.01	0.01	−6.17	0.13
Other community services	1,121.49	6,629.81	491.16	0.00	0.02	324.09	2.08
Private households	2,998.83	3,903.92	30.18	0.01	0.01	−6.61	0.15
Total	249,840.22	339,358.19	35.83	0.82	0.80	−2.56	0.46

Table 4. Contribution of employment changes to overall change in employment rate, Afar 2010–2018

Sectors	Change in total employment rate (percentage points)	Contribution of the sector to total employment rate growth (%)
Agriculture, hunting and forestry	−8.88	424.36
Mining and quarrying	0.28	−13.32
Manufacturing	2.93	−140.11
Electricity and water	0.30	−14.27
Construction	0.91	−43.50
Whole sale and retail trade	0.68	−32.50
Hotels and restaurants	0.56	−26.73
Transport and communications	0.92	−43.80
Financial intermediation	0.73	−34.93
Real estate activities	-	-
Public administration and defense	−1.02	48.85
Education	−0.41	19.50
Health and social work	−0.09	4.07
Other community, social and personal services	1.19	−56.90
Private households with employed persons	−0.06	3.10
Total	−2.09	100.00

Table 5. Contribution of sectoral employment changes to overall change in per capita value added

Sectors	Contribution to change in per capita value added In (ETB)	Percent of total change in per capita value added (%)
Agriculture, hunting and forestry	−806.76	−30.43
Mining and quarrying	25.32	0.96
Manufacturing	266.37	10.05
Electricity and water	27.13	1.02
Construction	82.70	3.12
Whole sale and retail trade	61.79	2.33
Hotels and restaurants	50.83	1.92
Transport and communications	83.28	3.14
Financial intermediation	66.41	2.51
Real estate, renting and business activities	-	-
Public administration and defense	−92.87	−3.50
Education	−37.08	−1.40
Health and social work	−7.74	−0.29
Other community, social & personal services	108.17	4.08
Private households with employed persons	−5.90	−0.22
Total	−190.11	−7.17

Table 6. Changes in output per worker by sectors, Afar 2010–2018

	Sectors	2010	2018	Change	Average productivity (ETB)
1	Agriculture, hunting and forestry	43,045.09	52,522.08	22.02	47,783.58
2	Mining and quarrying	579,676.20	373,691.24	−35.53	476,683.72
3	Manufacturing	1,681.59	6,028.67	258.51	3,855.13
4	Electricity and water	58,295.63	36,387.10	−37.58	47,341.37
5	Construction	197,966.62	176,678.22	−10.75	187,322.42
6	Whole sale and retail trade	15,067.03	18,003.32	19.49	16,535.17
7	Hotels and restaurants	26,400.94	35,661.62	35.08	31,031.28
8	Transport and communications	145,320.25	112,832.65	−22.36	129,076.45
9	Financial intermediation	192,813.70	49,674.99	−74.24	121,244.34
10	Real estate, renting and business activities	748,913.21		-	-
11	Public administration and defense	32,293.55	170,043.75	426.56	101,168.65
12	Education	16,688.87	25,964.99	55.58	21,326.93
13	Health and social work	23,065.04	59,408.61	157.57	41,236.83
14	Other community, social & personal services	60,786.80	34,517.34	−43.22	47,652.07
15	Private households with employed persons	3,309.33	7,628.46	130.51	5,468.90
	Total	35,823.74	46,969.29	31.11	41,396.52

Table 7. Contribution to the total output per worker growth

Sectors	The contribution of within sectors to changes in total output per worker (in ETB)	Contribution to change in total output per worker (%)
Agriculture, hunting and forestry	4,954.10	44.45
Mining and quarrying	−978.12	−8.78
Manufacturing	1,024.69	9.19
Electricity and water	−109.73	−0.98
Construction	−422.02	−3.79
Whole sale and retail trade	191.29	1.72
Hotels and restaurants	250.55	2.25
Transport and communications	−433.24	−3.89
Financial intermediation	−721.16	−6.47
Real estate activities	-	-
Public administration and defense	3,696.00	33.16
Education	309.96	2.78
Health and social work	602.29	5.40
Other community services	−315.56	−2.83
Private households	50.76	0.46
Sub-total of within effect	8,099.81	72.67
Between sectors	1,472.93	13.22
Interaction effect	1,572.82	14.11
Total	11,145.55	100.00