Youth unemployment and political instability: evidence from IGAD member countries

Figures & data

Figure 1. Trend on Youth Unemployment in IGAD Countries.

Table

Sequence	Component	Points (max.)
A	Government Stability	12
B	Religious Tensions	6
C	Corruption	6
D	Ethnic Tensions	6

Source: International Country Risk Guide Annual²

Table 1. Descriptive statistics

Variable	Observations	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max
Political Instability	135	6.27	2.24	0	11
Youth unemp’t rate	135	16.85	11.17	1.78	32.69
Government Stability	135	7.22	2.10	0.66	11.58
Religious Tensions	135	3.21	1.32	0	5
Corruption	135	1.59	.67	.5	3.45
Ethnic Tensions	135	2.34	1.04	0	4.58
GDP Per Head	135	2.68	4.85	−11.89	22.32
Annual Inflation Rate	135	13.83	22.23	−27.78	132.82

Table 2. Youth unemployment and political instability, OLS fixed effects

Political Instability	Coef.	St.Err.	t –value	p-value	[95% Conf Interval]		Sig
Youth Unemployment	−.168	.069	−2.43	.016	−.305	−.031	**
Gov’t stability	.271	.059	4.62	0	.155	.387	***
Religious tension	−.186	.168	−1.11	.271	−.517	.146
corruption	.362	.194	1.87	.064	−.022	.746	*
ethnic tension	−1.617	.196	8.25	0	1.229	2.006	***
GDP per capital	−.008	.018	−0.44	.664	−.044	.028
Inflation	−.012	.005	−2.27	.025	−.022	−.002	**
Constant	3.548	1.272	2.79	.006	1.031	6.065	***
Mean dependent var		6.273		SD dependent var		2.244
R-squared		0.644		Number of obs		135.000
F-test		31.741		Prob > F		0.000
Akaike crit. (AIC)		378.030		Bayesian crit. (BIC)		401.272

Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses.*** p<.01, ** p<.05, * p<.1

Source: author’s computation in stata

Table 3. Youth Unemployment and Political Instability, IV Fixed Effects

Political Instability	Coef.	St.Err.	t-value	p-value	[95% Conf Interval]		Sig
Youth Unemployment	−.143	.07	−2.05	.041	−.28	−.006	**
Gov’t stability	.195	.064	3.03	.002	.069	.321	***
Religious tension	−.071	.176	−0.40	.686	−.416	.273
corruption	.385	.201	1.91	.056	−.009	.779	*
ethnic tension	−1.355	.232	5.84	0	.9	1.81	***
GDP per capita	−.028	.022	−1.28	.202	−.07	.015
Inflation	−.017	.006	−2.82	.005	−.028	−.005	***
Constant	4.045	1.287	3.14	.002	1.524	6.567	***
Mean dependent var		6.407		SD dependent var		2.121
Overall r-squared		0.467		Number of obs		135.000
Chi-square		6007.009		Prob > chi2		0.000
R-squared within		6007.009		R-squared between		0.532

Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses. *** p < .01, ** p < .05, * p < .1

Source: Author’s computation in stata

Table 4. Robustness check using one step system GMM regression

Political Instability	Coef.	St.Err.	p-value	[95% Conf Interval]		Sig
L. Political Instability	0.51	3.11	0.002	.191	.843	***
Youth Unemployment	-0.04	3.74	0.000	-.069	-.021	***
Gov’t stability	0.25	4.28	0.000	.138	.371	***
Religious tension	-0.23	1.06	0.290	-.659	.197
Corruption	-0.22	1.07	0.285	-.629	.184
Ethnic tension	-0.82	2.06	0.039	.040	1.60	**
GDP per capita	-0.01	0.69	0.493	-.057	.027
Inflation	-0.00	0.88	0.378	-.016	.006
Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences				0.101
Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences				0.268
Hansen OID test				1.000
Sargan test				0.105
Number of obs				108

Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses.*** p < .01, ** p < .05, * p < .1

Source: Author’s computation in stata