Research on performance forecasting bias in start-up companies

Figures & data

Table 1. Number of lender companies and average loan balance per company

	JFC	Total of credit unions (271 unions)	Total of banks (144 banks)
Number of lender companies (unit: 1 million)	0.98	1.16	2.08
Average loan balance per company (unit: 1 million yen)	6.51	35.6	82.8

Source: Japan Finance Corporation (2012).

Table 2. Descriptive statistics for each variable

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
VARIABLES	N	mean	sd	min	max
performance forecast bias	3,831	0.392	1.676	−0.947	21
lag in forecast ratio of performance	3,831	0.616	3.268	−0.600	149
lag in profitability	3,831	0.692	0.462	0	1
lag in cash flow	3,831	0.167	0.373	0	1
lag in sales	3,831	358.8	859.8	1	18,000

Unit of sales is tens of thousands yen.

Source: Author own calculation using Stata/SE 16 software.

Figure 1. Histogram of performance forecast bias.

Figure 2. Histogram of lag in forecast ratio of performance.

Figure 3. Histogram lag in profitability.

Figure 4. Histogram of lag in cash flow.

Figure 5. Histogram of lag in sales.

Table 3. Results of fixed effects model in panel regression model

variable
Lag in forecast ratio of performance	0.653 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.0415)
Lag in profitability	0.189 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.0588)
Lag in cash flow	0.0387
	(0.0898)
Lag in sales	0.00181 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.000247)
Constant	−0.710 ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$
	(0.0919)
Observations	3831
$R^2$ (within)	0.5493

Standard errors in parentheses

${ }^{\ast }$ $p<0.10$, ${ }^{\ast \ast }$ $p<0.05$, ${ }^{\ast \ast \ast }$ $p<0.01$

Source: Author own calculation using Stata/SE 16 software.

Japan Finance Corporation. (2012). . Japan Finance Corporation Disclosure, in Japanese.

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