A Neural Network approach for integrating banks’ decision in shipping finance

Figures & data

Figure 1. NNs training process

Figure 2. NN and z coefficient relationship

Table A1. Differences of 88 indices from tanker shipping market

Input data	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	mean	std.deviation
Baltic Dirty Dry Index	−212,67	−163,76	385,80	−928,99	377,81	−108,36	540,36
Baltic Clean Dry Index	−206,40	−138,35	181,48	−671,09	280,69	−110,73	375,00
Weighted Average Earnings All Tankers	−3021,33	−4849,21	12,166,90	−28,618,90	5567,22	−3751,06	15,494,84
Exchange Rates UK	0,02	0,16	−0,14	−0,29	−0,04	−0,06	0,17
Exchange Rates Japan	6,07	1,52	−14,21	−10,06	−2,80	−3,90	8,28
Exchange Rates Euro	0,01	0,11	0,10	−0,08	−0,07	0,02	0,09
LIBOR Interest Rates	14,982,69	−359,62	−21,846,15	−19,280,77	−5869,23	−6474,62	14,987,14
8 Year $10 m Finance based on Libor 1st yr	0,15	0,00	−0,22	−0,19	−0,06	−0,06	0,15
5 Year $10 m Finance based on Libor 1st yr	0,15	0,00	−0,22	−0,19	−0,06	−0,06	0,15
Arab Light Crude Oil Price	11,46	8,71	25,73	−35,42	15,46	5,19	23,60
Brent Crude Oil Price	10,67	7,28	26,38	−37,74	15,80	4,48	24,68
Tankers 10k + DWT Contracting	533,00	−263,00	−331,00	−275,00	138,00	−39,60	370,69
Tankers 10k + DWT Contracting	14,385,715,24	−8,626,885,14	−3,814,567,10	−8,166,177,28	4,396,696,90	−365,043,48	9,763,119,17
Tankers 10k + DWT Contracting	60,972,274,00	−44,222,210,00	8,204,994,00	−39,728,348,00	23,085,442,00	1,662,430,40	44,266,253,72
Total Tanker 10k+ DWT Deliveries	14,00	69,00	97,00	48,00	−122,00	21,20	85,60
Total Tanker 10k+ DWT Deliveries	−4,92	5,75	5,46	11,30	−6,89	2,14	7,74
Total Tanker 10k+ DWT Demolition	2,00	11,00	−10,00	64,00	75,00	28,40	38,45
Total Tanker 10k+ DWT Demolition	−1,11	0,43	0,71	4,36	4,41	1,76	2,49
Total Tanker (10k+ DWT) Fleet Development	257,00	261,00	307,00	358,00	361,00	308,80	50,29
Total Tanker (10k+ DWT) Fleet Development	23,08	19,28	21,80	19,36	29,61	22,63	4,23
Oil Tanker Average Newbuilding Prices	28,03	53,65	61,97	−175,16	−61,05	−18,51	100,25
Oil Tanker Newbuilding Prices	22,91	23,45	−5,81	−75,63	8,86	−5,24	41,14
Oil Tanker Newbuilding Price Index Yr/Yr Change	0,08	−0,01	−0,13	−0,30	0,38	0,00	0,26
Tankers 10k + DWT Orderbook	124,00	616,00	297,00	−156,00	−479,00	80,40	419,67
Tankers 10k + DWT Orderbook	1,494,954,52	15,650,293,83	5,655,662,79	−779,160,48	−10,812,236,09	2,241,902,91	9,637,608,68
Tankers 10k + DWT Orderbook	−278,023,00	63,769,554,00	14,244,465,00	13,986,816,00	−38,282,534,00	10,688,055,60	36,604,469,90
Total Tanker Sales	4,00	44,00	−111,00	−107,00	116,00	−10,80	98,23
Total Tanker Sales	−2,023,428,00	5,594,404,00	−12,288,344,00	−6,214,157,00	13,125,871,00	−361,130,80	9,958,001,49
Total Tanker Sales	1360,69	840,46	−4206,61	−5440,20	3547,39	−779,65	3853,37
Tanker Secondhand Prices Index Average	69,34	65,67	−236,53	−193,30	39,08	−51,15	150,73
Tanker Secondhand Prices Index	20,40	19,32	−69,58	−56,86	11,50	−15,05	44,34
Tanker Secondhand Prices Index % Change	0,02	−0,01	−0,38	−0,04	0,43	0,00	0,29
Other Tankers Far East Demolition Prices	−56,83	43,08	54,58	−85,83	110,24	13,05	81,75
Other Tankers Indian Sub Continent Demolition Prices	−11,67	113,75	80,00	−249,17	132,32	13,05	156,70
Bangladesh Demolition Scrap Prices—Tankers (Others)	9,00	114,83	53,58	−246,67	93,75	4,90	146,33
Total Tanker 10k+ DWT Losses	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	−1,00	−0,20	0,45
Total Tanker 10k+ DWT Losses	−0,02	0,00	0,01	0,08	−0,09	−0,01	0,06
AG Crude Exports	−0,77	−0,57	0,63	−2,13	0,61	−0,45	1,14
Refinery Prod. Exports	0,27	0,09	0,03	0,00	0,00	0,08	0,11
E.Med Exports	0,06	0,11	0,10	0,07	0,04	0,07	0,03
Red Sea Exports	0,00	0,00	0,00	0,00	4,46	0,89	2,00
Oil Prod. Imports, Total	0,27	−0,49	−0,27	−0,42	0,51	−0,08	0,44
Oil Prod. Imports, Japan	0,09	−0,06	−0,03	−0,06	0,06	0,00	0,07
Oil Prod. Imports, Eur-4	0,10	−0,26	0,11	0,00	0,10	0,01	0,16
Oil Prod. Imports, USA	0,08	−0,17	−0,34	−0,37	−0,20	−0,20	0,18
Crude Oil Imports, Total	−0,22	−0,59	0,05	−2,42	−1,80	−1,00	1,06
Crude Oil Imports, Japan	−0,04	−0,04	0,02	−1,05	0,07	−0,21	0,47
Crude Oil Imports, Eur-4	−0,18	−0,44	0,30	−0,68	−0,26	−0,25	0,36
Crude Oil Imports, USA	−0,01	−0,09	−0,27	−0,69	−0,84	−0,38	0,37
Oil Prod. Imports, Total	0,27	−0,49	−0,27	−0,42	−0,60	−0,30	0,34
Oil Prod. Imports, Japan	0,09	−0,06	−0,03	−0,06	0,06	0,00	0,07
Oil Prod. Imports, Eur-4	0,10	−0,26	0,11	0,00	9,09	1,81	4,07
Oil Prod. Imports, USA	0,08	−0,17	−0,34	−0,37	9,96	1,83	4,55
Crude Oil Imports, Total	−0,22	−0,59	0,05	−2,42	−2,18	−1,07	1,15
Crude Oil Imports, Japan	−0,04	−0,04	0,02	−1,05	2,19	0,21	1,19
Crude Oil Imports, Eur-4	−0,18	−0,44	0,30	−0,68	1,12	0,02	0,71
Crude Oil Imports, USA	−0,01	−0,09	−0,27	−0,69	−0,02	−0,22	0,28
NGLs/Cond. Oil Prod.	0,56	−0,09	0,06	0,33	1,16	0,40	0,49
OPEC: Crude Oil Prod.	−0,43	0,78	1,01	−2,91	−6,19	−1,55	3,03
Former S.U. Oil Prod.	−1,26	0,22	−0,09	0,02	13,09	2,40	6,00
N. Sea Oil Prod.	−0,44	−0,17	−0,18	−0,23	2,26	0,25	1,13
N. America Oil Prod.	0,14	0,03	−0,17	0,46	20,71	4,23	9,22
Global Oil Prod.	0,29	0,08	0,77	−1,09	11,70	2,35	5,27
Mid-East Oil Production	−0,43	−0,38	0,76	−2,07	0,65	−0,29	1,14
Industrial Production Europe	21,191,67	−1116,67	−37,990,91	−129,792,42	206,183,33	11,695,00	123,052,24
Industrial Production Latin America	9925,00	2433,33	−33,625,00	−78,191,67	189,858,33	18,080,00	102,177,25
Industrial Production OECD	19716,67	−11,191,67	−44,616,67	−118,175,00	224,558,33	14,058,33	128,363,00
Atlantic Region Industrial Production Growth	1,883,216,67	−624,658,33	−4,363,100,00	−11,198,433,33	17,989,825,00	737,370,00	10,831,591,35
Pacific Region Industrial Production Growth	2,664,991,67	−985,066,67	−5,660,791,67	−10,717,400,00	29,556,133,33	2,971,573,33	15,687,523,22
Industrial Production China	12,166,67	7583,33	−33,916,67	−38,666,67	87,500,00	6933,33	50,662,81
Industrial Production USA	11416,67	−22,333,33	−35,083,33	−82,250,00	136,466,67	1643,33	82,514,65
Annual GDP Germany	24,500,00	−6600,00	−12,700,00	−61,500,00	63,000,00	1340,00	46,226,00
Annual GDP UK	6800,00	−2900,00	−20,100,00	−54,700,00	61,200,00	−1940,00	42,359,69
Annual GDP USA	−3800,00	−5300,00	−17,000,00	−28,800,00	57,400,00	500,00	33,370,95
Annual GDP Japan	1100,00	3200,00	−35,500,00	−40,100,00	76,000,00	940,00	46,506,16
Annual GDP Euro Area	12,800,00	−2100,00	−21,200,00	−47,400,00	50,900,00	−1400,00	36,896,68
Annual GDP World	6000,00	1000,00	−21,600,00	−36,200,00	52,000,00	240,00	33,606,96
Annual GDP EU	12700,00	−3400,00	−24,900,00	−46,800,00	51,000,00	−2280,00	37,276,36
Annual GDP China	12,100,00	14,100,00	−34,700,00	−8100,00	17,600,00	200,00	21,934,45
Annual GDP India	6100,00	−4500,00	−29,700,00	−7300,00	37,300,00	380,00	24,410,08
Annual GDP Indonesia	−1900,00	8500,00	−3400,00	−14,600,00	10,500,00	−180,00	10,132,47
Annual GDP Korea	12,200,00	−700,00	−28,100,00	−21,000,00	48,000,00	2080,00	30,258,50
Annual GDP Malaysia	5200,00	3300,00	−15,500,00	−63,500,00	88,200,00	3540,00	54,833,87
Annual GDP Philippines	3900,00	17,400,00	−32,400,00	−29,200,00	27,100,00	−2640,00	27,018,20
Annual GDP Singapore	10,300,00	−4600,00	−68,300,00	−34,100,00	100,200,00	700,00	63,230,81
Annual GDP Taiwan	7400,00	5400,00	−52,500,00	−26,000,00	74,700,00	1800,00	47,644,67
Annual GDP Thailand	5400,00	−2200,00	−24,700,00	−47,400,00	54,800,00	−2820,00	38,256,14
Annual GDP Newly Indust. Asia	9300,00	100,00	−39,900,00	−26,900,00	75,900,00	3700,00	44,984,66

Table A2. Loans granted by 89 shipping banks

Bank	2006–05	2007–06	2008–07	2009–08	2010–09	mean	std.deviation
1	15,556,915,2	24,118,669,2	40,761,996	30,538,269,6	438,297,6	22,282,829,56	15,292,348,56
2	22,886,551,1	−8,491,609,8	47,028,126			20,474,355,9	27,838,360,07
3	24,114,000	19,912,000	14,966,000	27,509,000		21,625,250	5,418,893,699
4	−107,563,825,6	17,962,453,6	66,943,814	−35,917,576,9	12,489,248,5	−9,217,177,24	65,945,758,87
5	7,743,197,9	−36,641,530	48,089,583	43,991,072	19,049,659,9	16,446,396,46	34,135,212,59
6	16,532,256,5	−12,182,086,8	39,153,484	34,518,459,6		19,505,528,4	23,269,261,39
7	7,013,461,8	−19,270,075,3	29,444,520	35,035,552,4	−4,514,317,3	9,541,828,24	22,804,280
8	45,379,674,4	35,180,425,04	19,229,727	13,524,341,2	12,964,805,8	25,255,794,67	14,391,644,49
9	4,536,331,9	7,750,945,6	42,678,177	29,805,034,76		21,192,622,24	18,201,770,78
10	−60,152,980,9	−164,066,755,6	87,656,474	48,705,735,1		−21,964,381,8	113,523,053,8
11	−34,057,464,5	8,368,207,4	19,869,470	−93,408,377	−47,285,724,5	−29,302,777,72	45,531,676,74
12	885,262,2	−390,561,4	27,897,759	25,274,122,8		13,416,645,73	15,253,163,11
13	4,150,582,7	25,994,568,7	8,042,285,3	30,523,880,39		17,177,829,27	13,025,862,63
14	9,180,988	−25,055,703,8	22,194,713	26,780,057,5	4,244,082,5	7,468,827,38	20,377,382,74
15	23,154,243,7	6,120,755,1	11,958,873	−6,436,788,1	−18,554,379,8	3,248,540,76	16,198,220,97
16	9,390,180,5	−18,171,856,9	23,135,456	40,010,984,58	15,105,207,7	13,893,994,27	21,315,909,41
17	−17,309,859,5	36,332,964	32,570,972	19,762,272,21		17,839,087,12	24,482,640,08
18	−8,322,306,4	−4,733,903,3	42,651,805	30,542,095,95		15,034,422,89	25,426,569,16
19	6,951,697,7	−19,711,602,3	14,154,737	77,272,111,89	3,805,107,75	16,494,410,37	36,271,063,51
20	−2,108,075,61	21,185,900,33	24,377,203	21,302,161,49	−651,862,89	12,821,065,25	13,036,897,8
21	17,346,188,21	−13,315,569,9	12,333,624	21,015,692,28	11,224,976,8	9,720,982,182	13,467,413,17
22	5,174,778,78	13,649,655,63	18,266,206	8,871,656,61		11,490,574,31	5,695,577,897
23	2,673,283,87	10,579,605,29	22,346,668	13,430,220,79	2,489,682,05	10,303,891,94	8,278,986,259
24	3,480,879,85	8,630,813,63	19,496,717	10,165,073,79	1,791,876,05	8,713,072,066	6,958,463,613
25	−842,623,2	8,372,417,5	26,620,758			11,383,517,27	13,977,101,32
26	10,746,107,86	2,347,188,19	9,617,483,5	5,007,501,47	4,297,634,54	6,403,183,104	3,606,420,626
27	239,248,69	9,465,744,86	17,686,367	8,674,036,77	2,284,183,07	7,669,916,16	6,869,925,3
28	−7,415,269,2	7,426,112,6	21,935,226			7,315,356,567	14,675,561,21
29	2,184,915,18	5,969,060,84	10,810,705	5,543,804,92	1,406,152,1	5,182,927,554	3,730,691,122
30	2,421,079,91	5,460,655,59	11,469,451	2,151,947,49	−3,160,638,7	3,668,498,974	5,351,630,018
31	2,904,649,09	6,172,359,67	8,972,581,5	4,803,178,02	162,269,6	4,603,007,572	3,324,179,809
32	9,226,130,51	609,644,2	6,626,206,5	2,548,867,77	752,416,27	3,952,653,056	3,819,204,415
33	11,622,964,61	−3,248,494,35	10,977,678	−3,461,316,87	−16,804,819,6	−182,797,538	11,836,078,82
34	−4,752,407,81	5,584,750,82	12,235,034	8,902,687,91	3,018,860,06	4,997,785,006	6,460,514,166
35	1,883,743,57	−2,075,019,72	8,470,912,5	5,182,823,9	6,330,200,51	3,958,532,15	4,128,976,061
36	7,554,185,42	−13,002,877,77	4,291,851,6	27,041,099,33		6,471,064,638	16,414,250,72
37	1,618,184,56	3,893,424,98	5,939,501,3	5,440,999,34	19,728,91	3,382,367,82	2,522,784,07
38	−1,124,826,87	4,266,860,48	6,042,787,4	4,245,353,17	60,038,95	2,698,042,632	3,066,597,127
39	9,641,930,35	−18,981,809,9	15,501,064	12,283,904,94		4,611,272,308	15,910,142,46
40	−2,215,931,38	−10,658,813,12	14,405,922	13,459,651,23	12,997,974,3	5,597,760,66	11,396,119,63
41	1,090,310,61	725,011,08	13,713,679			5,176,333,487	7,395,813,634
42	1,124,194,46	5,043,538,76	3,147,289,2	1,380,807		2,673,957,365	1,817,779,046
43	−141,040,766,4	97,125,301,3	31,567,503	89,275,929,2	10,332,171,4	17,452,027,76	96,016,155,07
44	1,149,345,43	−242,989,66	5,225,487,6	1,667,524,99	2,248,750,78	2,009,623,818	2,020,540,722
45	2,643,024,4	−50,767,99	2,613,767,1	1,175,177,32	762,702,46	1,428,780,662	1,180,637,519
46	136,242,77	−3,110,935,29	4,667,640,4	9,746,810,16	−229,556,6	2,242,040,28	5,034,943,606
47	1,864,793,5	1,202,314,11	3,745,979,2			2,271,028,93	1,319,594,034
48	1,908,657,65	−2,063,397,69	3,904,510,9	3,228,503,86		1,744,568,668	2,670,514,736
49	45,040,96	2,414,523,82	2,005,235,4	1,521,360,93		1,496,540,278	1,034,235,764
50	−7,038,251,66	5,050,105,3	7,044,963,2	5,125,177,67	−6,356,951,68	765,008,568	6,863,383,766
51	1,070,949,37	−2,473,792,87	1,841,889,3	3,192,029,4	2,030,431,32	1,132,301,3	2,154,084,011
52	529,432,37	461,983,23	896,216,2	970,897,73	555,981,58	682,902,222	232,868,6925
53	−598,291,86	545,872,31	1,058,182,6	1,218,723,06	460,018,41	536,900,908	712,613,1656
54	−332,471,06	531,953,7	544,343,08	511,667,79	121,198,09	275,338,32	383,163,831
55	−665,166,45	−843,911,32	5,284,872,7			1,258,598,32	3,488,001,097
56	107,771,78	−369,275,8	774,274,93	1,179,869,75		423,160,165	688,794,9783
57	206,311,22	184,287,7	162,940,57	133,924,4	−193,328,02	98,827,174	165,494,2007
58	−2,552,502,62	−8,084,881,67	11,500,486	4,768,342	2,419,376,87	1,610,164,09	7,412,305,383
59	−268,104,52	−294,918,24	809,976,73	535,485,83	12,940,92	159,076,144	493,787,7957
60	34,637	14,809	1982	40,144	15,373	21,389	15,679,44,382
61	−19,892,1	−433,683,43	328,705,75	84,257,72	42,851,28	447,844	276,341,7612
62	−453,895,51	−193,002,87	384,018,81	392,027,44	−19,050,43	22,019,488	368,227,454
63	−34,787,083,8	−201,781,765,6	185,201,708	198,342,038,2	48,940,795,7	39,183,138,56	166,045,075,8
64	−662,307,39	−1,168,787,92	754,125,65			−358,989,8867	996,694,6776
65	−4,571,398,94	−2,121,439,03	2,314,291,1			−1,459,515,64	3,490,241,91
66	−7,599,467,17	−4,442,594,82	2,990,711,2	8,073,351,63		−244,499,7975	7,103,351,069
67	−36,637,000	−48,680,000	113,415,000	128,131,000	67,111,000	44,668,000	82,946,161,39
68	−50,083,532,9	59,756,291,5	95,812,280	2,674,525,6	−24,986,053,4	16,634,702,22	60,222,622,53
69	852,144,84	−35,376,857,82	15,540,425	22,036,031,4		762,935,7375	25,671,069,39
70	−30,015,203,6	50,893,650,5	163,701,175	−7,405,332,2	−50,704,114,1	25,294,035,18	86,191,583,05
71	−29,539,372,2	38,019,798,8	150,263,363	−4,788,795,1	−33,767,148,7	24,037,569,22	76,110,589,24
72	−37,807,911,1	57,886,050,2	198,252,513	101,059,028,8		79,847,420,25	97,970,705,01
73	43,283,406,8	−66,528,133,3	47,146,517	69,088,385,1	806,547,8	18,759,344,64	53,704,120,63
74	−11,152,989,7	56,424,609,2	62,356,789	90,352,552,9		49,495,240,35	43,054,087,62
75	8,687,854,7	43,854,647,6	122,680,001	18,134,691,6	−21,762,814,7	34,318,875,98	54,686,955,5
76	−33,027,000	40,649,000	201,706,000	131,728,000	52,535,000	78,718,200	90,218,971,84
77	−32,264,719	−9,680,404,3	99,100,676	71,498,172	12,729,121,7	28,276,569,3	55,298,877,94
78	31,774,338,1	44,206,921,7	81,611,726	108,273,651,3	−13,979,952,9	50,377,336,88	47,046,723,14
79	−2,932,608,4	81,966,468,1	54,028,922			44,354,260,53	43,268,494,34
80	37,903,916,4	8,740,182	78,378,465	59,491,713,4		46,128,569,1	29,911,902,8
81	23,207,406,5	32,319,093,7	4,776,159	115,988,193	34,297,113,7	42,117,593,18	42,912,742,5
82	168,612,045,4	107,264,363,9	89,218,322	55,322,530,6	21,581,850,2	88,399,822,5	55,563,680,2
83	289,769,826,5	32,815,974,9	137,480,569	162,434,938,6		155,625,327,3	105,597,485,4
84	110,992,529,7	−20,899,019,4	39,162,225	202,933,595,9	−22,288,668,3	61,980,132,54	95,865,707,43
85	148,329,165	103,175,667,4	77,725,072	61,249,468,9	34,191,137,4	84,934,102,16	43,415,058,26
86	808,587,1	−11,392,189,1	40,125,556	58,178,421,4	−6,577,956,5	16,228,483,86	31,030,935,57
87	235,895,648,9	89,601,625,3	77,715,643	32,700,608,3	16,215,543,8	90,425,813,92	86,837,584,27
88	39,867,681,4	37,960,245,1	22,221,139	38,091,618,4	−17,918,840,8	24,044,368,64	24,523,403,02
89	9,867,219,6	−1,823,526,2	58,514,465	36,195,380,8	18,352,047,2	24,221,117,22	23,654,917,46