Non-linearity between financial inclusion and economic growth in sub-saharan Africa: What implications for the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)?

Figures & data

Table 1. Expected signs of explanatory variables

Variables	Nature	Symbols	Signs
Real GDP per capita growth rate	Explained variable	Tcpibr
Synthetic index of governance	Control variable	IndSym	+
Investment rate	Control variable	Inv	+
Annual population growth rate	Control variable	Tcpop	+
Trade openness	Control variable	Ouv	+
Foreign direct investment	Control variable	Ride	+
Gross primary school enrolment rate	Control variable	Tbsp	+
Strict banking rate	Variable of interest	TBS	+
Extended banking rate	Variable of interest	TBE	+
Overall demographic penetration rate of financial services	Variable of interest	TGPSFd	-/+
Overall geographical penetration rate of financial services	Variable of interest	TGPSFg	-/+
Nominal interest rate on deposits	Variable of interest	TINd	-/+
Nominal interest rate of loans	Variable of interest	TINc	-/+

Source: Authors based on literature

Figure 1. Percentage change per year in financial inclusion and economic growth indicators.

Table 2. Correlation coefficient matrix

	Tcpibr	TBE	TBE2	TINc	TINc2	TINd	TINd2
Tcpibr	1.00
TBE	−0.114	1.00
TBE2	−0.164	0.975*	1.00
TINc	−0.468*	−0.012	0.113	1.00
TINc2	−0.434*	−0.029	0.094	0.992*	1.00
TINd	−0.201	0.518*	0.522*	0.555*	0.573*	1.00
TINd2	−0.208	0.513*	0.526*	0.582*	0.598*	0.993*	1.00
TGPSFd	0.137	0.414*	0.335*	−0.131	−0.12	0.322*	0.329*
TGPSFd2	0.104	0.373*	0.333*	−0.021	−0.021	0.285	0.298
TGPSFg	0.117	0.66*	0.623*	−0.098	−0.094	0.477*	0.478*
TGPSFg2	0.088	0.478*	0.475*	0.062	0.057	0.389*	0.401*
TBS	−0.021	0.861*	0.786*	−0.23	−0.25	0.399*	0.393*
TBS2	−0.095	0.879*	0.828*	−0.108	−0.125	0.466*	0.47*
Indsym	0.171	0.504*	0.348*	−0.379*	−0.351*	0.422	0.389*
Ouv	0.182	0.622*	0.646*	0.045	0.02	0.181	0.169
Tcpop	−0.091	−0.383*	−0.384*	0.279	0.303	−0.022	−0.012
Tbsp	−0.225	0.866*	0.868*	0.179	0.139	0.438*	0.442*
Ride	0.022	−0.499*	−0.517*	0.164	0.214	0.034	0.066

Source: Authors, based on data presented in Section 1.2.2

*significant at the 1% level

Table 3. PCSE model pre-estimation test results

	Modèl 1		Modèl 3		Modèl 4		Modèl 5
Tests	Stat	Prob	Stat	Prob	Stat	Prob	Stat	Prob
Résiduel _ADF	−3.22	0.0006*	−2.97	0.0015*	−2.23	0.012*	−2.50	0.006*
Hausman	9.55	0.089	11.19	0.082	7.30	0.294	14.16	0.027*
Heteroscedasticity	190.41	0.000*	155.59	0.00*	85.13	0.00*	206.20	0.00*
Contemporary autocorrelation	−0.353	0.723	2.475	0.013*	2.447	0.014*	−0.118	0.905

Source: Authors, based on Stata software

** significant at the 5% level.

Table 4. PCSE model estimation results

	(3)	(4)	FGLS(Bootstrapped) (3)	FGLS(Bootstrapped) (4)
Variables	tcpibr	tcpibr	tcpibr	tcpibr
TBE	−0.244***		−0.244***
	(0.0290)		(0.0789)
TBE^2	0.00190***		0.00190**
	(0.000299)		(0.000846)
IndSym	3.615***	1.909*	3.615***	1.909
	(1.017)	(0.986)	(1.295)	(1.341)
Ouv	0.200***	0.166***	0.200***	0.166**
	(0.0413)	(0.0519)	(0.0648)	(0.0824)
Tcpop	−2.744***	−4.553***	−2.744***	−4.553***
	(0.510)	(0.855)	(0.612)	(1.521)
Tbsp	−0.0210	−0.0406**	−0.0210	−0.0406
	(0.0154)	(0.0207)	(0.0233)	(0.0272)
Ride	0.146*	0.232**	0.146	0.232*
	(0.0798)	(0.107)	(0.0973)	(0.136)
TBS		−0.519**		−0.519
		(0.217)		(0.388)
TBS^2		0.0101		0.0101
		(0.00663)		(0.0112)
Constant	17.19***	23.94***		23.94***
	(2.812)	(4.567)		(8.598)
Observations	40	40
R-squared	0.639	0.543	0.96	0.78
Wald chi2(7)	622.80*	65.00*	52.59*	22.66
Number of id	8	8
Number of bootstrap replications			100	100

Source: Auteurs à partir de stata

Standard errors in parentheses

*** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1

Table

	TGPSFG	TINC	TIND	TXINV	TGPSFD	TCPOP	TCPIBR	TBSP	TBS	TBE	RIDE	PIB	OUV	INDSYM
Mean	144.1921	7.228824	4.886765	25.17446	36.78412	2.923588	5.906118	96.80551	17.77059	42.25147	1.583176	8894.394	32.91826	−0.523281
Median	101.3050	7.200000	4.645000	24.34065	34.99500	2.843000	5.927000	89.51260	19.30500	39.49500	1.816000	7276.841	31.56450	−0.576005
Maximum	644.9300	11.28000	7.350000	38.71197	115.4800	3.977000	8.843000	132.4669	26.78000	85.40000	8.911000	23,899.90	48.73000	−0.071868
Minimum	15.83000	4.530000	3.020000	17.30998	4.180000	2.476000	2.096000	69.57597	4.450000	14.08000	−6.724000	2259.047	24.68500	−0.901308
Std. Dev.	134.8790	1.706964	1.223127	5.431071	21.74475	0.415735	1.490385	20.99073	6.332780	20.13800	2.922278	5765.398	5.440418	0.256633
Skewness	1.645969	0.209089	0.219554	0.775308	1.328372	1.615221	−0.151710	0.547370	−0.675491	0.366026	−0.857022	1.238400	1.373585	0.399650
Kurtosis	6.553477	2.254233	1.889136	2.987105	6.124436	4.789675	2.960795	1.767363	2.626003	1.933519	5.875502	3.709477	4.562773	1.976224
Jarque-Bera	33.24074	1.035641	2.021352	3.406480	23.82889	19.32149	0.132600	3.850286	2.783787	2.370483	15.87582	9.403681	14.15138	2.389912
Probability	0.000000	0.595818	0.363973	0.182093	0.000007	0.000064	0.935850	0.145855	0.248604	0.305672	0.000357	0.009079	0.000845	0.302717
Sum	4902.530	245.7800	166.1500	855.9317	1250.660	99.40200	200.8080	3291.387	604.2000	1436.550	53.82800	302,409.4	1119.221	−17.79157
Sum Sq. Dev.	600,347.8	96.15295	49.36934	973.3856	15,603.53	5.703584	73.30114	14,540.16	1323.435	13,382.78	281.8104	1.10E+09	976.7389	2.173390
Observations	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40