Impact of rural out-migration on poverty of households in southern Ethiopia

Figures & data

Figure 1. Map of study area, and sample districts in Hadiya and Kembata Tembaro zones.

Table 1. Description, measurement, and expected signs of covariates in the model

Variables	Description	Measurement	Sign
AGE	Age of household head	Continuous	+
EDUC	Years of schooling of household head	Continuous	+
EDUC	Highest education in the household	Continuous	+
FS	Family size	Continuous	+
LS	Land size in hectares	Continuous	-
TLU	Tropical livestock unit	Continuous	-
SEX	Sex of household head	Male = 1 & Female = 0	$\pm$
IRR	Use of irrigation	Users = 1 & non-users = 0	-
AP	Asset per adult equivalent	Continuous	+
S	Saving of household head	Continuous	+
LF	Land fertility	Fertile = 1 & otherwise	-
DR	Drought in the last 5 years	Occurrence = 1 & 0 otherwise	+
CF	Crop failure in the last 5 years	Occurrence = 1 & 0 otherwise	+
LR	Participation in land renting out	Renting = 1 & 0 otherwise	+
EXTN	Frequency of extension visits	Continuous	-
LC	Lack of cash in the last year	Lack of cash = 1 & 0 otherwise	-
SA	Sales of animals in the last year	Sales = 1 & 0 otherwise	$\pm$
PC	Participation in the community	Participation = 1 & 0 otherwise	+
SICK	Sickness of family in the last year	Sickness = 1 & 0 otherwise	+
Angacha	Place dummy for district	Angacha = 1 & 0 otherwise	$\pm$
Religion	The religion of the household head	Protestant = 1 & 0 otherwise	+
MALE	Number of active males in the family	Continuous	+
RETURN	Return migrants in the village	Presence = 1 & 0 otherwise	+

Table 2. Incidences of poverty and poverty lines in the study area

	Poverty indices
	Incidence	Depth	Severity
Food Poverty	34.7	9.47	3.58
Total Poverty	39.76	10.11	3.55
	Ethiopian Birr
Food Poverty line	8997.52
Non-food Poverty line	2249.38
General Poverty line	11,246.9

Table 3. Distribution of rural poverty indices by migration status of households

Poverty indices	Migration status
	Without migrants	Rural-Urban migrants	International migrants	Total
Incidence	46.63	48.24	24.82	39.76
Depth	11.60	14.90	5.10	10.11
Severity	4.00	5.70	1.50	3.55

Source: Author Computation, 2021.

Table 4. Mean difference tests for households with and without migrants

Attributes	Mean			Mean difference	Std. error	t-value
	With migrants		Without migrants
Consumption per Adult Equivalent		14,881.07	13,356.54	1524.52	681.27	2.24
Kilocalorie per Adult Equivalent		2447.58	1723.86	723.72	111.8	6.47
Age of Household Head		52.08	50.53	1.55	.90	1.72
Education of Household Head		4.09	4.88	−.79	.37	−2.14
Dependency Ratio		0.45	0.62	−0.17	0.06	−2.89
Land Size in Hectare		1.05	0.84	0.22	0.06	3.71
Tropical Livestock Unit		4.43	3.16	1.27	0.22	5.82
Asset per Adult Equivalent		3642.22	2113.86	1528.36	356.50	4.29
Extension Visits		5.95	4.03	1.92	0.26	7.30
Adult Equivalent (AE)		7.22	6.24	0.98	0.13	7.64
Family Size		7.93	6.95	0.98	0.13	7.59

Source: Author Computation, 2021.

Table 5. One-way ANOVA test for annual consumption expenditure by migration status

Migration (A)	Migration (B)	Mean difference (A-B)	Std. error	t-value
No Migrants	Rural-Urban	1749.12	867.92	2.02
	International	−3555.61	744.84***	−4.77
Rural-Urban	No Migrants	−1749.12	867.92	−2.02
	International	−5304.74	920.56***	−5.76
International	No Migrants	3555.61	744.84***	4.77
	Rural-Urban	5304.74	920.56***	5.76

Source: Author Computation, 2021.

Note: *** refers to statistical significance at a 1% level.

Table 6. Regression results of determinants of rural out-migration in southern Ethiopia

Multinomial Logistic Regression Log Pseudolikelihood = −127.849	Number of observations (415), Pseudo R square = 0.7057 Wald chi2 (48) = 1122.53, Prob>chi2 = 0.000
Covariates	Rural-urban migration		International migration
	Coefficient	Std. Error	Coefficient	Std. Error
Age of Household Head	0.064(1.066) **	0.033	0.044(1.045)	0.038
Sex of Household Head	−1.739(0.176) **	0.919	−1.920(0.147) *	1.060
Education of Household Head	0.166 (1.180) **	0.077	0.046(1.047)	0.100
Highest Education	0.001(1.000)	0.113	−0.317(0.728) ***	0.100
Land Size	−0.446(0.640)	0.553	−0.390(0.677)	0.567
Irrigation	−3.034(0.048) **	1.207	−3.158(0.043) **	1.306
Drought Occurrence	12.38(0.0002) ***	0.807	−1.224(0.294)	1.182
Consumption per AE	−0.001(1.000)	0.001	0.00052(1.00) ***	0.00001
Land Fertility	−0.058 (0.994)	0.526	−1.005(0.366) *	0.574
Family Size	0.520(1.681) *	0.298	1.494(4.454) ***	0.294
Tropical Livestock Units	0.203(1.225)	0.158	0.543(1.720) ***	0.163
Frequency of Extension Visits	−0.0001(1.000)	0.148	0.469(1.598) ***	0.153
Saving of Households	1.164(3.202) *	0.657	1.4154.116) **	0.703
Angacha, dummy for District	−2.585(0.075) **	1.008	1.006(2.735)	0.918
Asset per Capita	−0.0028(1.000) **	0.001	0.00029(1.00) ***	0.0001
Crop Failure	0.830(2.293)	1.093	2.844(17.190) **	1.184
Lack of Cash	−0.127(0.880)	0.608	−1.915(0.147) **	0.837
Land Renting Out	1.052(2.862)	0.692	1.794(6.015) ***	0.574
Number of Active Males	0.099(1.104)	0.201	0.595(1.813) **	0.254
Return Migrant	7.265(1428.7) ***	1.147	5.591(268.1) ***	1.209
Sales of Animals	−0.945(0.389)	0.604	−0.549(0.577)	0.357
Participation in Community	−1.936(0.144) *	1.052	−2.753(0.064) **	1.170
Sickness	1.531(4.625) **	0.747	0.261(1.298)	0.847
Religion	−1.647(0.193)	1.415	−1.490(0.225) *	0.786
Constant	−18.12(0.001) ***	3.618	−15.49(0.000) ***	4.075

Note: ***, ** and * denote significance level at 1, 5, and 10%, respectively, and values in the parenthesis show odds ratio.

Table 7. Impact of rural out-migration on vulnerability, poverty, and kilocalories per AE

Outcomes	Choices	Rural labor out-migration
		Participation	Non-participation		Change (%)
		Actual	Counterfactual	ATT
Consumption	Rural–urban	11,607.4	12,275.7	−668.30 (700.05)	−5.4
	International	16,912.16	13,029.19	3882.9(725.1) ***	29.8
Kilocalories	Rural–urban	1588.74	1228.47	360.28(59.1) *	29.33
	International	2980.49	1945.91	1034.6(93.8) ***	53.16
Heterogeneity Effects		$\mathbf{B}{\mathbf{H}}_{\mathbf{1}}$	$\mathbf{B}{\mathbf{H}}_{\mathbf{0}}$	$\mathbf{T}\mathbf{H}$
Consumption	Rural–urban	−492.59 (491.9)	−1080.83(687.52)	588.25 (383.47)
	International	−1309.9(564.3) **	−327.34 (639.42)	−982.57 (363.48) ***
Kilocalories	Rural–urban	−80.70 (68.10)	−495.4 (62.3) ***	414.67(61.2) ***
	International	1624.7(102) ***	222.1 (71.6) ***	1390.6 (78.3) ***
Wald Test:	$F\left(3,390\right)$	$=71.60$	$Prob>F=0.000$
LR Test:	$LRChi2)$	$=216.26$	$Prob>Chi2=0.00$

Note: ***, ** and * denote the significance level at 1, 5, and 10%, and value in the parenthesis shows standard error.

Source: Author Computation, 2021.

Data availability statement

The authors will provide any data related to this study on request.