The determinants of non-traditional agricultural exports’ growth in Ghana

Figures & data

Figure 1. Top Ten NTAE products growth in percentage terms in 2019 Relative to 2018 Figures. Source: Authors’ estimation from GEPA (2019) Statistics.

Figure 2. Top Ten NTAE products contributions to overall merchandized exports in 2019. Source: Authors’ estimates from GEPA (2019) Statistics.

Table 1. Explanatory variables and their a prior expectations

Variable	Description	Expected sign
LNNTAE Dependent Variable	Logarithm form of values of non-traditional agricultural exports (vegetables, cashew, banana, and pineapple).
LNRGDP	Logarithm form of real gross domestic product (in constant dollar term of 2010)	+
LNFDI	Logarithm form of net foreign direct investment inflow	+
LNEXCR	Logarithm form of official exchange rate	-
LNINFL	Logarithm form of inflation	-
LNGCF	Logarithm form of gross capital formation	+

Table 2. Trend analysis for NTAE-Least Squares method

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
TREND	0.9768***	0.0731	13.3682	0.0000
TREND^2	−0.0138***	0.0016	−8.5282	0.0000

Dependent Variable: LNNTAE. Method used: Least Squares. Data: 1961–2019 with 59 observations. *** represents significant at 1% level. Source: Authors’ estimations, 2022

Table 3. Unit root test

	ADF TEST		PP TEST		GLS –DF
Variable	Level	1^st Difference	Level	1^st Difference	Level	1^st Difference
LNRGDP	3.1775	−4.9011***	3.1775	−4.9011***	2.1908	−4.9214***
LNNTAE	−1.8525	−6.6368***	−1.9096	−6.5849***	−0.8480	−6.2249***
LNINFL	−2.9145**	−9.8525***	−3.503***	−11.051***	−2.1207**	−7.5969***
LNFDI	−1.0371	−9.2574***	−0.6790	−9.3186***	−1.0936	−2.8554***
LNGCF	−0.8791	−7.0982***	−0.7058	−7.9311***	−0.3461	−6.9518***
LNEXCR	−0.4021	−4.2932***	−0.1279	−4.1909***	0.5443	−3.9674***

**, *** Representing 5% and 1% critical values respectively. Source: Authors’ estimations, 2022

Table 4. ARDL bounds test approach to cointegration

Test Statistic	Value	Significance	I(0)	I(1)
F-statistic	5.6699	10%	2.08	3
K	5	5%	2.39	3.38
		1%	3.06	4.15

Source: Authors’ estimations, 2022

Table 5. Short-run factors that affect the growth of NTAE based on ARDL model

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
D(LNNTAE(−1))	−0.2492	0.1926	−1.2938	0.2121
D(LNRGDP)	3.1567**	1.1423	2.7633	0.0128
D(LNRGDP(−1))	−0.7386	1.9474	−0.3793	0.7089
D(LNRGDP(−2))	−5.7060***	1.7611	−3.2401	0.0045
D(LNINFL)	0.1185	0.0879	1.3479	0.1944
D(LNINFL(−1))	−0.3440**	0.1237	−2.7811	0.0123
D(LNINFL(−2))	−0.2325**	0.0811	−2.8676	0.0102
D(LNINFL(−3))	−0.0701	0.0592	−1.1845	0.2516
D(LNGCF)	−0.1881	0.1500	−1.2540	0.2259
D(LNGCF(−1))	0.4582**	0.1794	2.5535	0.0200
D(LNGCF(−2))	0.4441***	0.1369	3.2446	0.0045
D(LNFDI)	0.0221	0.0502	0.4411	0.6644
D(LNFDI(−1))	0.0311	0.0507	0.6121	0.5481
D(LNFDI(−2))	0.0572	0.0477	1.1990	0.2461
D(LNFDI(−3))	0.0813**	0.0354	2.2942	0.0340
D(LNEXCR)	0.0946	0.1810	0.5226	0.6077
D(LNEXCR(−1))	0.2668	0.1823	1.4639	0.1605

***, ** means significant at 1% and 5% respectively. Source: Authors’ estimations, 2022

Table 6. Results of ARDL error correction model

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	Prob.
Coint. Eq(−1)	−0.4145***	0.0570	0.0000
Diagnostic statistics
R-squared	0.9252	Mean dependent variable	0.0418
Adjusted R-squared	0.8539	S.D. dependent variable	0.0410
S.E. of regression	0.0157	Akaike info criterion	−5.1677
Sum squared residual	0.0054	Schwarz criterion	−4.2756
Log likelihood	135.6900	Hannan-Quinn criteria	−4.8369
F-statistic	12.9669	Durbin-Watson statistic	1.7198
Prob (F-statistic)	0.0000

Source: Authors’ estimation, 2022

Table 7. Factors affecting the growth of NTAE in the long run

Variable	Coefficient	Std. Error	t-Statistic	Prob.
LNRGDP	5.0227**	2.1517	2.3343	0.0314
LNINFL	1.3410**	0.5122	2.6183	0.0174
LNGCF	−1.4847	0.9766	−1.5203	0.1458
LNFDI	0.1007	0.1648	0.6109	0.5489
LNEXCR	−0.2972***	0.0899	−3.3077	0.0039

***, ** representing significance levels at 1% and 5% respectively. Source: Authors’ estimations, 2022

Table 8. Diagnostic test results

Test	Test Method	F-Statistic	P-Value
Normality	Histogram Normality-Jarque-Bera	0.0284	0.9859
Heteroscedasticity	Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey	0.5650	0.9309
Serial Correlation	Breusch-Godfrey	1.3289	0.2961

Figure 3. CUSUM test graph.

Figure 4. Graph of CUSUM squares.

GEPA. (2019). Export performance: Non-Traditional Exports (NTES) sector general performance 2018. Ghana Export Promotion Authority. www.gepaghana.org

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