Impact of Urban expansion on income of evicted farmers in the peri-Urban areas of Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia: Endogenous switching regression approach

Figures & data

Table 1. Percentage of Urban population in 2007 and projected percentages, 2017–37

Region	% of urban population
	Census	projection		Rate of urbanization in %
	2007	2017	2037	From 1994 – 2007	Projected 2007 – 2037
Amhara	12.3	17.0	37.1	3.94	6.02
Afar	13.4	19.2	50.5	6.62	7.53
Tigray	19.5	26.1	50.5	4.52	5.17
Oromia	12.4	15.0	31.8	4.13	5.12
SNNP	10.3	14.0	24.6	6.04	4.77
Benishangul	14.6	21.2	43.4	7.69	5.94
Gambela	25.4	32.1	60.4	8.03	4.75
Somali	14.0	14.4	18.6	2.71	2.65
Harari	54.2	55.7	62.4	2.02	2.30
Dire Dawa	67.9	69.3	74.8	2.28	2.20
Addis Ababa	100	100	100	2.10	2.10
National average	16.1	20.4	31.1	3.77	3.86

Sources: CSA, 2007.Population projection of Ethiopia, 2007–2037; and

Summary and Statistical Report of the 2007 population and housing census results, 2007

Table 2. Population trend in large and medium towns of the regional state

Towns	Censuses				Growth rate
	1984	1994	2007	2017	1994 to 2007	projection
						2007 to 2016
Gondar	80,886	112,249	207,044	341,991	6.50	6.518
Bahir Dar	54,800	96,140	155,428	297,794	4.74	9.160
Dessie	68,848	97,314	120,095	198,428	1.80	6.523
Debre Birhan	25,753	38,717	65,231	107,827	5.27	6.530
Debre Mark’os	39,808	49,297	62,497	103,263	2.06	6.523
Kombolcha	15,782	39,466	58,667	96,968	3.74	6.529
Debre Tabor	NA	NA	55,596	91,968	NA	6.542
Woldiya	15,690	24,533	46,139	76,331	6.77	6.544
Mota	NA	NA	26,177	43,322	NA	6.550
Finote Selam	NA	NA	25,913	42,882	NA	6.548
Dangila	NA	NA	24,827	41,067	NA	6.541
Injibara	NA	NA	22,466	45,874	NA	7.41
Burie	NA	NA	25,971	62,049	NA	9.01
Gish Abay	NA	NA	6,772	15,240	NA	8.45

NA- no available data.

Sources: CSA, 2007.Population projection of Ethiopia, 2007–2037; and

Figure 1. Conceptual frame work for impacts of urban expansion.

Figure 2. Map of the study areas.

Table 3. Distribution of sample households by municipalities

City	Peri-urban Kebele	Total No. of HHs in the study area		Sample HHs
		evicted HHs	Non-evicted HHs	evicted HHs	Non-evicted HHs
Burie	Wan gedam	354	492	18	21
	Fereswega	325	452	16	20
	Wundigi	202	341	10	15
	Derequa mewucha	311	450	16	19
Injibara	Besena-basa −01	431	540	22	23
	Bahunk Michael- 02	506	628	26	27
	Charate gebriel-03	345	461	17	20
	Akaita-04	316	432	16	19
	Abo gumbi-05	362	306	18	13
Gish Abay	Abay	175	291	19	12
	Sangib	177	163	18	7
Total		3504	4556	197	196

Source: Each municipality’s documentation, 2022

Table 4. Definition and measurement of independent variables

Variable	Definition	Measurement	Hypothesis
Age	Age of the household head	years	positive
Education	Education status of the household head	Years of schooling	positive
Family size	family size of the household	number	positive
Dependency ratio	The ratio of inactive labor force to the total active labor force in the household	ratio	Negative
Land	Total cultivable land of the household	hectare	Positive
TLU	Total tropical livestock unit of the household	number	positive
Physical asset	Value of all productive assets	birr	positive
Distance from credit	Distance from credit supplier institutions	kilometer	negative
Distance from market	Distance from the market place	kilometer	negative

Table 5. Demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the households

Explanatory variables	Pooled (393)	Evicted (197)	Non-evicted (196)	Sig.
Age(year)	38.87(0.55)	40.4(0.84)	37.32(0.7)	**
Distance from the market(km)	5.82(0.08)	6.02(0.12)	5.62(0.11)
Land size(hectare)	0.59(0.02)	0.16(0.02)	0.92(0.03)	***
Distance to credit institution(km)	5.31(0.04)	5.51(0.06)	5.1(0.05)	***
Education (years of schooling)	3.56(0.18)	2.94(0.24)	4.18(0.26)	***
Family size(number)	3.75(0.08)	3.88(0.1)	3.62(0.11)	*
Dependency ratio(number)	0.93(0.044)	1.1(0.06)	0.76(0.06)	***
Total physical asset (Birr)	82621.22(5026.36)	74292.76(5079.47)	90992.17(8663.27)
Tropical livestock unit (TLU, number)	2.11(0.08)	2.01(0.1)	2.22(0.12)

***, **, * Significant at 1%, 5% and 10%, respectively.

Number in parenthesis are standard deviation.

Source: Own survey computation 2022.

Table 6. Descriptive statistics of mean annual income by eviction status

variable	Evicted (N=197)		Non-evicted(N=196)		t-value	pooled (N=393)
	mean	SD	mean	SD		mean	Std.Err
Total annual income	28367.97	4892.93	34103.84	8580.19	8.145***	31228.61	380.29

***significant at 1%

Source: Own survey computation, 2022.

Table 7. Endogenous switching regression model output of household income

variable	Selection equation (1)(1) $n=\frac{z^2\times p\times q\times N}{e^2\left(N-1\right)+z^2\times p\times q}$(1)	Outcome equation for Evicted (2)	Outcome equation for non-evicted (3)
	Coefficient	coefficient	coefficient
Age of the household head	−0.115** (0.04)	−371.305** (187.404)	1444.95** (482.12)
Age2	0.001*** (0.0005)	−4.093(2.1)	4.5(5.77)
Distance from the market	0.077(0.043)	−89.947(205.44)	−199.62(396.84)
Land size	−0.844*** (0.178)	2597.67** (1263.93)	2955.22** (1507)
Distance from credit institutions	0.28*** (0.08)	159.6(435.75)	140.96(775.56)
Education status of the hh head	−0.05** (0.02)	1209.24** (506.75)	−176.02(194.71)
Family size of the household	−0.03(0.05)	1291.49*** (457.14)	1082.07** (536.34)
Dependency ratio	0.301*** (0.09)	471.73(480.29)	717.6(925.88)
Value of total physical asset	−1.45e-06(7.5e07)	−0.002(0.005)	−0.005(0.005)
Tropical livestock unit	−0.06(0.045)	68.32(227.58)	1213.98** (364.28)
Proximity to urban (Instrumental Variable)	−0.21*** (0.046)
δ1		4719.2*** (246.29)
δ1			8439.22*** (471.25)
ρ1		−0.08(0.312)
ρ2			−0.285*** (0.144)
loglikelihood	−4212.071
Number of observations	393	197	196

Note: ***, **, * significant at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively.

Source: Own computation, 2022.

Table 8. Summary of predicted values for total income for evicted and non-evicted

	Mean outcome		effect
	evicted	Non-evicted
	28368.12(91.058)	34099.32(156.58)
ATT	−9202.36*** (153.93)		−26.73%
ATU		−4666.78*** (139.49)	−11.8%
TH	−4535.58		−14.93%

Results are expressed in Ethiopian birr. Standard errors in the parenthesis.

*** Refers significant at the 1% level.

Source: Own survey data, 2022