Determinants of economic growth in East African countries: A dynamic panel model approach

Figures & data

Table 1. Descriptive statistics

Variable			Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max	Observations
GDP (GDP growth rate)
GDP(%)	overall		4.559862	4.353756	-17.9	16.3	N = 289
	between			2.343526	.5470588	9.176471	n = 17
	within			3.710551	-15.16367	20.3128	T = 17
I (Investment, % of GDP)
I	overall		23.55346	10.51947	6.673	96.254	N = 289
	between			10.4622	6.673	96.254	n = 17
	within			0	23.55346	23.55346	T = 17
S (Saving, % of GDP)
S	overall		13.69648	11.59703	-34.579	41.344	N = 289
	between			11.54998	-34.579	41.344	n = 17
	within			.9838643	6.985906	20.40706	T = 17
CPI (consumer price Index, %Δ)
CPI	overall		8.969197	14.26484	-72.729	156.964	N = 289
	between			9.731709	-34.67	80.725	n = 17
	within			8.686811	-67.2698	85.2082	T = 17
IM (Import volume,%Δ)
IM	overall		8.030463	17.94964	-61.645	161.427	N = 289
	between			18.0016	-61.645	161.427	n = 17
	within			1.900481	-6.625919	22.68685	T = 17
EX(Export Volume,%Δ)
IM	overall		8.030463	17.94964	-61.645	161.427	N = 289
	between			18.0016	-61.645	161.427	n = 17
	within			1.900481	-6.625919	22.68685	T = 17
POP(Population in Billion)
POP	overall		20.64172	21.01506	.082	94.138	N = 289
	between			21.11562	.082	94.138	n = 17
	within			1.169366	14.89722	26.38622	T= 17
GR (Government revenue, % of GDP)
GR	overall		22.25786	8.178329	2.236	49.823	N = 289
	between			8.081485	9.947	49.823	n = 17
	within			1.183799	13.22036	31.29536	T = 17
GE(Government expense, % of GDP)
GE	overall		25.55447	9.187237	4.27	67.009	N = 289
	between			9.05077	4.53278	67.009	n = 17
	within			1.405944	15.89604	35.21291	T = 17
GD(Government debt, % of GDP)
GD	overall		62.02052	36.92703	16.718	202.052	N = 289
	between			37.11001	16.718	202.052	n = 17
	within			3.810362	31.20752	92.83352	T = 17
CAB(Current account Balance,% of GDP)
CAB	overall		-9.38309	10.16783	-91.502	9.674	N = 289
	between			10.2684	-91.502	9.674	n = 17
	within			.4565832	-12.62559	-6.14059	T = 17
FDI(foreign direct investment, % of GDP)
FDI	overall		4.767658	6.584388	-.6100591	57.87725	N = 289
	between			6.635114	-.6100591	57.87725	n = 17
	within			.0930231	3.965737	5.56958	T = 17

NB: Own compilation, 2020.

Table 2. Pool, FE and RE estimation of GDP

	(Pool)	(FE)	(RE)
VARIABLES	GDP	GDP	GDP
I (Investment, % of GDP)	−0.0250	−0.0996**	−0.0559
	(0.0425)	(0.0503)	(0.0453)
S(Saving, % of GDP)	0.128***	0.145***	0.136***
	(0.0342)	(0.0444)	(0.0376)
CPI (consumer price Index, %Δ)	−0.0425***	−0.0457***	−0.0440***
	(0.0148)	(0.0144)	(0.0143)
IM (Import volume,%Δ)	0.0501***	0.0489***	0.0504***
	(0.0124)	(0.0121)	(0.0120)
EX(Export Volume,%Δ)	0.0435***	0.0369***	0.0393***
	(0.0105)	(0.0103)	(0.0102)
POP(Population in Billion)	0.0600***	−0.0256	0.0625***
	(0.0119)	(0.0658)	(0.0176)
GR Government revenue,% of GDP)	−0.0416	0.0376	−0.00415
	(0.0561)	(0.0719)	(0.0619)
GE(Government expense, % of GDP	0.177***	0.155**	0.161***
	(0.0564)	(0.0682)	(0.0609)
GD(Government debt, % of GDP)	−0.0178***	−0.0141*	−0.0148**
	(0.00665)	(0.00812)	(0.00715)
CAB(Current account Balance,% of GDP)	−0.0639*	−0.123***	−0.0816**
	(0.0363)	(0.0460)	(0.0396)
FDI(foreign direct investment, % of GDP)	−0.0364	−0.0612	−0.0487
	(0.0412)	(0.0435)	(0.0418)
Constant	−1.087	0.407	−1.211
	(0.992)	(1.955)	(1.253)
Observations	289	289	289
R-squared	0.386	0.276
Number of id	17	17	17

Notes: NB: Standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1

Table 3. Dynamic OLS and FE estimation of GDP

	(OLS)	(FE)
VARIABLES	GDP	GDP
L.GDP (lag 1)	0.297***	0.170***
	(0.0579)	(0.0581)
L2.GDP (Lag 2)	0.0414	−0.000840
	(0.0486)	(0.0474)
L.I(Lag 1)	0.0149	−0.0328
	(0.0520)	(0.0543)
L2.I(lag 2)	0.0732*	0.0545
	(0.0419)	(0.0418)
S(current)	0.0252	−0.0418
	(0.0396)	(0.0456)
L.S(lag 1)	−0.0176	0.0494
	(0.0425)	(0.0455)
CPI (current)	−0.0273**	−0.0312**
	(0.0133)	(0.0136)
L.CPI(lag 1)	0.0397***	0.0259*
	(0.0139)	(0.0148)
IM(current)	0.0341***	0.0385***
	(0.0111)	(0.0108)
L.IM(lag1)	0.0209**	0.0258**
	(0.0105)	(0.0101)
EX(current)	0.0385***	0.0349***
	(0.00868)	(0.00824)
L.EX(lag 1)	0.0142	0.0178**
	(0.00861)	(0.00830)
POP(current)	0.131	−0.122
	(0.303)	(0.298)
L.POP(lag 1)	−0.0996	0.0194
	(0.308)	(0.299)
GR(current)	0.138**	0.145**
	(0.0648)	(0.0666)
L.GR(lag1)	−0.116*	−0.114*
	(0.0619)	(0.0654)
GE(current)	0.120*	0.144*
	(0.0721)	(0.0742)
L.GE(Lag 1)	−0.0705	−0.0408
	(0.0677)	(0.0693)
GD (current)	−0.0546***	−0.0503***
	(0.0158)	(0.0155)
L.GD(Lag 1)	0.0461***	0.0469***
	(0.0140)	(0.0135)
CAB(current)	0.0217	0.0752*
	(0.0418)	(0.0428)
L.CAB(lag 1)	−0.0179	−0.124**
	(0.0490)	(0.0546)
FDI(current)	−0.0346	−0.0608
	(0.0372)	(0.0370)
L.FDI(lag 1)	−0.0302	−0.0449
	(0.0390)	(0.0384)
Constant	−1.573*	1.623
	(0.948)	(1.939)
Observations	255	255
R-squared	0.608	0.527
Number of id		17

Notes: NB: Standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.01, ** p  <  0.05, * p  <   0.1

Table 4. Dynamic AB and BB estimation of GDP

	(AB)	(BB)
VARIABLES	GDP	GDP
Lag1.GDP(%)	0.171***	0.190***
	(0.0495)	(0.0437)
Lag2. GDP(%)	−0.0243	−0.00927
	(0.0359)	(0.0346)
Lag1.I	−0.0130	0.0117
	(0.0387)	(0.0431)
Lag2. I	0.0739**	0.0716**
	(0.0306)	(0.0292)
S	0.00788	−0.0311
	(0.0293)	(0.0345)
Lag1.S	0.0362	0.0294
	(0.0331)	(0.0387)
CPI	−0.0284***	−0.0298***
	(0.00964)	(0.00931)
Lag1.CPI	0.0292***	0.0253**
	(0.0105)	(0.0102)
IM	0.0375***	0.0415***
	(0.00790)	(0.00774)
Lag1.IM	0.0274***	0.0256***
	(0.00756)	(0.00711)
EX	0.0406***	0.0367***
	(0.00608)	(0.00584)
Lag1. EX	0.0178***	0.0183***
	(0.00605)	(0.00581)
POP	−0.0585	0.114
	(0.224)	(0.200)
Lag1. POP	0.105	−0.0704
	(0.228)	(0.203)
GR	0.135***	0.155***
	(0.0480)	(0.0462)
Lag1. GR	−0.116**	−0.114***
	(0.0456)	(0.0427)
GE	0.135**	0.119**
	(0.0537)	(0.0503)
Lag1. GE	−0.0594	−0.0668
	(0.0496)	(0.0485)
GD	−0.0610***	−0.0592***
	(0.0119)	(0.0114)
Lag1.GD	0.0524***	0.0496***
	(0.0104)	(0.0100)
CAB	0.0415	0.0697**
	(0.0308)	(0.0346)
Lag1.CAB	−0.0641*	−0.0896**
	(0.0378)	(0.0441)
FDI	−0.0522**	−0.0480*
	(0.0263)	(0.0252)
Lag1.FDI	−0.0227	−0.0443*
	(0.0276)	(0.0266)
Constant	−1.549**	−1.288*
	(0.781)	(0.779)
Observations	255	255
Number of id	17	17

Notes: NB: Standard errors in parentheses *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1