Assessing the COVID-19 impacts on the coffee industry in Laos: An input–output modelling approach

Figures & data

Figure 1. Map showing Laos and Southeast Asia. The coffee-producing areas in Laos is in southern Laos especially in Champasak Province source: Toro (2012).

Figure 2. Coffee plantation development in Laos during 1960–2019.

Figure 3. Green coffee export quantity and value in Laos during 1960–2020.

Table 1. Laos’ top five coffee importing countries between 2019 and 2020

	Green coffee value (US$)
	Countries	2019	2020
1	Vietnam	34,702,998	55,486,699
2	Thailand	10,023,990	6,860,126
3	Belgium	5,236,060	5,803,638
4	Cambodia	3,393,000	5,575,100
5	Japan	4,839,356	2,885,371
	Processed coffee value (US$)
1	Thailand	3,922,066	3,882,217
2	China	527,389	349,611
3	Arab Emirates	223,800	305,700
4	Philippines	195,600	98,400
5	Vietnam	63,820	114,010

Table 2. The input-output transaction table

	Industry 1	Industry … j …	Industry n	Households	Government expenditure	Exports	Other final demand	Total gross output
Industry 1	Quadrant I Zij			Quadrant II Yi				Xi
Industry … i …
Industry n
Import	Quadrant III			Quadrant IV
Labour
Other value added
Total gross input	Xj

Table 3. National backward and forward linkages of the Lao economy 2017

	Backward linkage	Power of dispersion	Forward linkage	Sensitivity for dispersion	Value-added multipliers
Crop	1.142	0.816	1.425	1.018	0.766
Mining and quarrying	1.136	0.812	1.287	0.920	0.732
Food, beverages, and tobacco (Food)	1.148	0.820	1.189	0.850	0.796
Textiles, garments, and leather products	1.405	1.004	1.190	0.850	0.610
Wood, pulp, paper, and paper products of wood and cork	1.117	0.798	4.227	3.021	0.057
Chemical, rubber, plastic, petroleum products	1.461	1.044	1.560	1.115	0.225
Other non-metallic minerals	1.454	1.039	1.154	0.825	0.222
Metal products, machinery, equipment & spare parts	1.259	0.900	1.429	1.021	0.694
Other manufacturing	1.812	1.295	1.203	0.860	0.313
Electricity, gas, and water supply	1.434	1.025	1.131	0.808	0.670
Construction	1.665	1.190	1.409	1.007	0.374
Motor vehicles and motorcycles	1.762	1.259	1.104	0.789	0.373
Trade	1.303	0.931	1.262	0.902	0.570
Hotels and restaurants	1.624	1.160	1.661	1.187	0.507
Transportation	1.148	0.820	1.265	0.904	0.900
Post and telecommunications	1.410	1.007	1.264	0.904	0.716
Financial intermediation	1.457	1.041	1.058	0.756	0.662
Real estate & ownership of dwellings	1.457	1.041	1.010	0.722	0.662
Public administration	1.457	1.041	1.000	0.715	0.662
Other services	1.338	0.956	1.158	0.827	0.730

Table 4. Impact on the GDP and quantities of production in all economic sectors in Champasak Province, Laos (change over baseline)

Economic sector	Crop sector		Food industry sector
	US$ Thousand	Percentage change	US$ Thousand	Percentage change
Crops	10,915.1	21.8	−704.2	−1.4
Livestock	45.6	0.0	−2,914.9	−2.4
Forestry	23.4	0.3	−7.2	−0.1
Mining and quarrying	0.2	0.0	−0.1	0.0
Food	14.1	0.0	−5,847.9	−2.9
Textiles, garments, and leather products	9.6	0.2	−23.3	−0.4
Wood and paper products; printing/publishing	23.9	0.2	−7.8	−0.1
Chemical products; petroleum	3.3	3.3	−0.5	−0.5
Non-metallic mineral products	2.6	0.4	−0.5	−0.1
Metal prods, machinery, equipment, spare parts	22.7	0.3	−10.9	−0.1
Other manufactured goods	32.6	0.7	−8.4	−0.2
Electricity and water supply	30.7	0.6	−26.0	−0.5
Construction	11.0	0.0	−26.8	0.0
Transportation	1.2	0.2	−2.4	−0.3
Post and telecommunication	0.6	0.1	−0.4	−0.1
Wholesale and retail trade	282.3	0.5	−395.0	−0.7
Banking, insurance, business services	30.9	0.5	−80.9	−1.3
Real estate and ownership of dwellings	0.6	0.0	−0.2	0.0
Public administration	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Other services	698.4	1.2	−89.8	−0.2
Gross Production	12,148.7	1.8	−10,147.2	−1.5
GDP	6,286.0	1.8	−5,250.3	−1.5

Table 5. Impact on the GDP and quantities of production in all sectors in Laos (change over baseline)

Economic sector	Agriculture sector		Food industry sector
	US$ Thousand	Percentage change	US$ Thousand	Percentage change
Agriculture	22,817	1.0	−5,091	−0.23
Mining and quarrying	7	0.0	−28	0.00
Food, beverages, and tobacco	324	0.0	−12,275	−0.94
Textiles, garments, and leather products	42	0.0	−13	0.00
Wood, pulp, paper, and paper products of wood and cork	26	0.0	−88	−0.03
Chemical, rubber, plastic, petroleum products	120	0.1	−83	−0.05
Other nonmetallic minerals	3	0.0	−11	−0.01
Metal products, machinery, equipment & spare parts	6	0.0	−23	−0.02
Other manufacturing	8	0.0	−14	−0.01
Electricity, gas, and water supply	61	0.0	−197	−0.02
Construction	16	0.0	−19	0.00
Motor vehicles and motorcycles	58	0.0	−180	−0.07
Trade	340	0.0	−1,063	−0.07
Hotels and restaurants	8	0.0	−9	0.00
Transportation	64	0.0	−227	−0.06
Post and telecommunications	15	0.0	−21	−0.01
Financial intermediation	47	0.0	−90	−0.03
Real estate & ownership of dwellings	60	0.0	−167	−0.02
Public administration	0	0.0	0	0.00
Other services	0	0.0	−1	0.00
Gross Production	24,023	0.2	−19,601	−0.13
GDP	14,818	0.2	−12,090	−0.13