Intra-Africa regional trade comovements and shock transmission: A baseline for AfCFTA

Figures & data

Figure 1. Intraregional trade (imports + exports) as a percentage of total trade.

Source: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2021/05/19/why-the-extent-of-intra-african-trade-is-much-higher-than-commonly-believed-and-what-this-means-for-the-afcfta/

Table 1. Descriptive statistics

Panel A: Overall	Eastern Africa	Middle Africa	Southern Africa	Western Africa
Mean	0.5137	1.0055	0.5768	1.0823
Median	0.9530	1.8583	0.8524	0.6991
Maximum	19.3901	35.3375	15.9207	19.5408
Minimum	−18.6804	−24.5399	−13.7078	−18.1144
Std. Dev.	8.3207	9.7164	6.1837	6.4013
Skewness	−0.0474	0.2237	0.2429	0.0176
Kurtosis	2.8132	4.4761	3.0499	3.7092
Jarque-Bera	0.1207	6.5426	0.6561	1.3866
Probability	0.9414	0.0380	0.7203	0.4999
Panel B: Pre- AfCFTA Announcement
Mean	0.6269	1.0709	1.0971	1.4356
Median	1.2853	1.8627	1.264	0.9677
Maximum	18.1132	14.4943	15.9207	19.5408
Minimum	−18.6804	−17.0734	−13.7078	−18.1144
Std. Dev.	8.1529	7.8564	6.4448	6.7464
Skewness	−0.1766	−0.4327	0.1378	−0.0223
Kurtosis	2.9464	2.5132	3.0326	3.6734
Jarque-Bera	0.27118	2.0954	0.1636	0.9679
Probability	0.8732	0.3507	0.9215	0.6164
Panel C: Post AfCFTA Announcement
Mean	0.1288	0.7831	−1.1922	−0.1189
Median	0.6391	1.7947	−1.7669	0.2482
Maximum	19.3901	35.3375	8.5023	8.027
Minimum	−13.5754	−24.5399	−9.5143	−8.4303
Std. Dev.	9.1568	14.7584	4.9853	5.0694
Skewness	0.3085	0.5763	0.3345	−0.2583
Kurtosis	2.5132	3.4014	2.3677	2.2154
Jarque-Bera	0.386	0.9311	0.5296	0.5516
Probability	0.8245	0.6278	0.7673	0.759

Figure 2. Pairwise co-movement among the various trade regions in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Table 2. Sub-Saharan Africa trade regions connectedness (2005–2021)

	Eastern Africa	Middle Africa	Southern Africa	Western Africa	From Others
Eastern Africa	82.9	4.9	5.1	7.1	17.1
Middle Africa	7.6	75.2	11.8	5.3	24.8
Southern Africa	12.6	8.5	76.3	2.5	23.7
Western Africa	13.6	12.1	17.4	56.8	43.2
% of trade shock transmission to others	33.8	25.6	34.4	14.9	108.7
% of trade shock transmission including own	116.7	100.8	110.7	71.8	27.20%

Table 3. Sub-Saharan Africa trade regions connectedness before AfCFTA (2005–2017)

	Eastern Africa	Middle Africa	Southern Africa	Western Africa	From Others
Eastern Africa	76.7	10.6	5.1	7.6	23.3
Middle Africa	5.7	74.5	10.7	9.2	25.5
Southern Africa	9.5	11.6	71.9	7	28.1
Western Africa	16.9	15.3	9.5	58.2	41.8
% of trade shock transmission to others	32.1	37.5	25.4	23.8	118.7
% of trade shock transmission including own	108.8	111.9	97.3	82	29.70%

Table 4. Sub-Saharan Africa trade regions connectedness after AfCFTA (2018–2021)

	Eastern Africa	Middle Africa	Southern Africa	Western Africa	From Others
Eastern Africa	88.3	10.1	0.9	0.7	11.7
Middle Africa	26.9	70.9	0.3	1.9	29.1
Southern Africa	13.3	69.9	7	9.8	93
Western Africa	13	15.8	2.7	68.4	31.6
% of trade shock transmission to others	53.3	95.8	3.9	12.4	165.4
% of trade shock transmission including own	141.6	166.7	10.9	80.8	41.30%

Table

Northern	Eastern Africa	Middle African	Southern	Western Africa
Algeria	British Indian Ocean Territory	Angola	Botswana	Benin
Egypt	Burundi	Cameroon	Eswatini	Burkina Faso
Libya	Comoros	Central African Republic	Lesotho	Cabo Verde
Morocco	Djibouti	Chad	Namibia	Côte d'Ivoire
Sudan	Eritrea	Congo	South Africa	South Africa
Sudan	Ethiopia	Congo, Dem. Rep.		Ghana
Tunisia	Ethiopia	Equatorial Guinea		Guinea
Western	French Southern Territories	Gabon		Guinea-Bissau
	Kenya	Sao Tome and Principe		Liberia
	Madagascar			Mali
	Malawi			Mauritania
	Mauritius			Niger
	Mozambique			Nigeria
	Rwanda			Saint Helena
	Seychelles			Senegal
	Somalia			Sierra Leone
	South Sudan			Togo
	Tanzania
	Uganda
	Zambia
	Zimbabwe

Table

Northern	Eastern Africa	Middle African	Southern	Western Africa
Petroleum and petroleum products	Coffee	Crude oil	Diamonds	Petroleum and petroleum products
Natural gas	Tea	Timber	Platinum	Cocoa
Textiles and clothing	Cut flowers	Minerals (iron ore, cobalt, copper, gold)	Gold	Gold
Fertilizers	Horticultural products	Cocoa	Coal	Timber
Phosphates	Tobacco	Coffee	Copper	Rubber
Wheat	Sesame seeds	Rubber	Agricultural products (maize, wheat, sugarcane, citrus fruits)	Cashew nuts
Olive oil	Cashew nuts	Palm oil	Wine	Cotton
Dates	Maize (corn)	Diamonds	Livestock and meat products	Palm oil
Citrus fruits	Beans	Cassava	Fish and seafood	Shea butter
Fish and seafood	Livestock and meat products	Fish and seafood	Tourism	Fish and seafood