Presidential elections and stock market outcomes: An event-study on the effect of Turkey's Presidential Elections on Borsa Istanbul

Figures & data

Figure 1. $\mathit{A}{\mathit{R}}_{\mathit{n},\mathit{d}}$ and $\mathit{C}\mathit{A}{\mathit{R}}_{\mathit{n},\mathit{d}}$ for all stocks surrounding round 1 elections.

Figure 2. $\mathit{A}{\mathit{R}}_{\mathit{n},\mathit{d}}$ and $\mathit{C}\mathit{A}{\mathit{R}}_{\mathit{n},\mathit{d}}$ for all stocks surrounding round 2 re-elections.

Table 1. Descriptive statistics of abnormal returns $\mathit{A}{\mathit{R}}_{\mathit{n},\mathit{d}}$ and cumulative abnormal returns $\mathit{C}\mathit{A}{\mathit{R}}_{\mathit{n},\mathit{d}}$ before and after round 1 elections

		AR				CAR
t	Date	Mean	Median	Skewness	Kurtosis	Mean	Median	Skewness	Kurtosis
−10	5/5/23	−0.0017	−0.0017	0.8799	4.3345	−0.0017	−0.0017	0.8799	4.3345
−9	6/5/23	−0.0326	−0.0374	0.8178	2.4399	−0.0344	−0.0394	0.7930	2.2247
−8	7/5/23	−0.0256	−0.0250	−0.0296	−0.1659	−0.0600	−0.0592	−0.0342	−0.4316
−7	8/5/23	0.0070	0.0077	−0.0718	5.1576	−0.0530	−0.0525	0.0607	−0.2229
−6	9/5/23	−0.0126	−0.0125	−1.0225	3.7188	−0.0656	−0.0620	−0.0043	0.8396
−5	10/5/23	0.0143	0.0122	−0.3768	1.9134	−0.0513	−0.0566	−0.4975	1.3289
−4	11/5/23	−0.0116	−0.0155	0.8160	1.7494	−0.0630	−0.0669	−0.2410	0.7397
−3	12/5/23	−0.0121	−0.0119	0.5380	2.1012	−0.0751	−0.0787	0.0089	0.2243
−2	13/5/23	0.0312	0.0326	−0.3301	−0.3895	−0.0439	−0.0490	0.1136	−0.2932
−1	14/5/23	−0.0145	−0.0195	1.2331	2.5665	−0.0584	−0.0636	0.3454	−0.0567
0	15/5/23	−0.0140	−0.0148	0.5510	0.5229	−0.0724	−0.0711	0.0355	−0.0076
+1	16/5/23	0.0210	0.0269	−1.2906	2.5800	−0.0514	−0.0296	−0.4294	−0.4269
+2	17/5/23	0.0181	0.0153	0.6370	0.5052	−0.0332	−0.0373	−0.1551	−0.3837
+3	18/5/23	−0.0221	−0.0213	0.0181	1.4416	−0.0553	−0.0508	−0.1774	−0.2889
+4	19/5/23	−0.0017	−0.0017	0.8799	4.3345	−0.0571	−0.0531	−0.1778	−0.2978
+5	22/5/23	−0.0056	−0.0117	1.4231	2.4253	−0.0627	−0.0638	0.0785	−0.0864
+6	23/5/23	−0.0014	−0.0035	1.0445	3.0261	−0.0640	−0.0643	0.0467	−0.1396
+7	24/5/23	−0.0037	−0.0085	1.8434	4.9527	−0.0677	−0.0696	0.1935	0.363

Table 2. Descriptive statistics of abnormal returns $\mathit{A}{\mathit{R}}_{\mathit{n},\mathit{d}}$ and cumulative abnormal returns $\mathit{C}\mathit{A}{\mathit{R}}_{\mathit{n},\mathit{d}}$ before and after round 2 re-elections

		AR				CAR
t	Date	Mean	Median	Skewness	Kurtosis	Mean	Median	Skewness	Kurtosis
−10	15/5/23	−0.0134	−0.0145	0.5576	0.5524	−0.0134	−0.0145	0.5576	0.5524
−9	16/5/23	0.0207	0.0266	−1.2796	2.5577	0.0073	0.0121	−0.4097	1.1599
−8	17/5/23	0.0179	0.0148	0.6454	0.5214	0.0253	0.0310	−0.2007	1.8185
−7	18/5/23	−0.0218	−0.0212	0.0073	1.4599	0.0035	0.0099	−0.6069	1.8810
−6	19/5/23	−0.0018	−0.0018	0.5565	1.1402	0.0017	0.0075	−0.5990	1.8705
−5	22/5/23	−0.0056	−0.0116	1.4314	2.4549	−0.0039	−0.0042	−0.0973	1.7373
−4	23/5/23	−0.0014	−0.0032	1.0420	3.0237	−0.0053	−0.0065	−0.2535	1.5437
−3	24/5/23	−0.0036	−0.0083	1.8409	4.9487	−0.0090	−0.0032	0.0097	1.9073
−2	25/5/23	0.0046	−0.0005	1.6488	4.4983	−0.0043	−0.0038	0.2366	1.5905
−1	26/5/23	0.0166	0.0154	0.8246	1.5193	0.0122	0.0150	0.2218	1.5375
0	29/5/23	0.0289	0.0232	0.4228	0.4113	0.0412	0.0493	0.0444	1.3945
+1	30/5/23	0.0223	0.0178	0.3820	0.1561	0.0635	0.0683	0.0663	1.2996
+2	31/5/23	0.0008	−0.0042	0.9499	1.2027	0.0643	0.0680	0.1948	1.1907
+3	1/6/23	0.0106	0.0089	0.4861	1.0778	0.0749	0.0769	0.1403	1.2033
+4	2/6/23	0.0068	0.0036	1.1379	2.3289	0.0817	0.0791	0.2147	1.7053
+5	5/6/23	0.0155	0.0119	0.8400	1.5977	0.0973	0.0897	0.1502	1.2331
+6	6/6/23	−0.0046	−0.0078	1.4609	4.7191	0.0926	0.0804	0.4552	2.6676
+7	7/6/23	0.0093	0.0063	0.0168	3.1212	0.1019	0.1035	0.1370	1.3788

Table 3. Mean and median equality tests for$\mathit{C}\mathit{A}{\mathit{R}}_{\mathit{n},\mathit{d}}$ – round 1 elections

Market Model
Event Window	Mean	t-test	Median	W/M
[−1,1]	−0.0075	−0.9676	−0.0104	−1.3770
[−2,2]	0.0419	4.7043***	0.0370	4.4475***
[−3,3]	0.0076	0.9650	−0.0002	−0.5381
[−4,4]	−0.0057	−0.7925	−0.0134	−1.2154
[−5,5]	0.0030	0.3235	−0.0070	−0.1289
[−6,6]	−0.0110	−1.3479	−0.0238	−1.8481**
[−7,7]	−0.0677	−7.6193***	−0.0696	−6.3386***

Note. The test suggests a standard test for equality of the Satterthwaite–Welch; *, **, and *** suggest statistical significance at 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectively. W/M means Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney signed-rank test.

Table 4. Mean and median equality tests for $\mathit{C}\mathit{A}{\mathit{R}}_{\mathit{n},\mathit{d}}$ – round 2 re-elections

Market Model
Event Window	Mean	t-test	Median	W/M
[−1,1]	0.0678	13.6515***	0.0638	8.2399***
[−2,2]	0.0733	11.9659***	0.0700	8.1093***
[−3,3]	0.0802	11.7503***	0.0749	8.0955***
[−4,4]	0.0856	12.0277***	0.0846	7.9993***
[−5,5]	0.0956	12.2356***	0.0900	8.0336***
[−6,6]	0.0892	11.0037***	0.0822	7.8858***
[−7,7]	0.1019	7.8062***	0.1035	6.4830***

Note. The test suggests a standard test for equality of the Satterthwaite–Welch; *, **, and *** suggest statistical significance at 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectively. W/M means the Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney signed-rank test.

Table 5. Sectors analysis

	Round 1 elections		Round 2 re-elections
	Coff.	D0	Coff.	D0
Industrials	0.0039***	−0.0547***	0.0036***	0.0455***
	(0.0004)	(0.0081)	(0.0004)	(0.0081)
Utilities	0.0032***	−0.0407***	0.0030***	0.0459***
	(0.0007)	(0.0123)	(0.0007)	(0.0123)
Financials	0.0039***	−0.0751***	0.0036***	0.0229**
	(0.0006)	(0.0106)	(0.0006)	(0.0107)
Materials	0.0032***	−0.0114	0.0030***	0.0625***
	(0.0005)	(0.0087)	(0.0005)	(0.0087)
Real Estate	0.0006	0.0230	0.0006	0.0306**
	(0.0009)	(0.0154)	(0.0009)	(0.0154)
Consumer Discretionary	0.0029***	−0.0453***	0.0026***	0.0501***
	(0.0005)	(0.0084)	(0.0005)	(0.0084)
Information Technology	0.0081***	−0.0258	0.0080***	0.0189
	(0.0028)	(0.0507)	(0.0028)	(0.0508)
Consumer Staples	0.0036***	−0.0792***	0.0033***	0.0187**
	(0.0006)	(0.0103)	(0.0006)	(0.0105)
Health Care	0.0033***	−0.0131	0.0032***	0.0489**
	(0.0011)	(0.0199)	(0.0011)	(0.0198)
Energy	0.0027**	−0.0545**	0.0024*	0.0317
	(0.0013)	(0.0226)	(0.0013)	(0.0227)
Communication Services	−0.0746*	0.0023***	0.0019	0.0383
	(0.0232)	(0.0013)	(0.0013)	(0.0233)

Note. *, **, and *** suggest statistical significance at 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectively.