Does pre-employment card program improve Indonesian youth labor market performance in pandemic era?

Figures & data

Figure 1. Labor market equilibrium between skilled and unskilled workers.

Source: Adapted from Ehrenberg and Smith (2012)

Figure 2. Impact of training on income.

Source: Adapted from Todaro and Smith (2011)

Figure 3. Learning curve theory.

Source: Adapted from Anzanello and Fogliatto (2011)

Figure 4. Conceptual framework between pre-employment card and labor outcome.

Table 1. Summary of statistics by employment status of youth, 2020

	Self-employment		Unpaid Family Workers		Informal-paid Employment		Formal-paid Employment		Unemployment
	Mean	Std. dev.	Mean	Std. dev.	Mean	Std. dev.	Mean	Std. dev.	Mean	Std. dev.
Use of Pre-Employment Card	0.005	0.067	0.001	0.034	0.003	0.057	0.003	0.055	0.002	0.039
Lives in Urban Areas	0.375	0.484	0.259	0.438	0.485	0.500	0.659	0.474	0.473	0.499
Males	0.630	0.483	0.567	0.495	0.633	0.482	0.652	0.476	0.459	0.498
University Graduate	0.054	0.225	0.027	0.162	0.092	0.289	0.149	0.356	0.028	0.165
High school graduate	0.325	0.468	0.283	0.451	0.305	0.461	0.291	0.454	0.264	0.441
Married	0.345	0.475	0.109	0.312	0.147	0.354	0.176	0.381	0.103	0.303
Migrant Residents	0.053	0.225	0.032	0.177	0.062	0.241	0.085	0.280	0.037	0.189
Java Island	0.259	0.438	0.192	0.394	0.289	0.453	0.653	0.476	0.307	0.461
Sumatra island	0.285	0.452	0.320	0.467	0.346	0.476	0.144	0.351	0.294	0.456
Kalimantan island	0.093	0.291	0.079	0.270	0.114	0.318	0.105	0.306	0.098	0.297
Experience	0.292	0.455	0.142	0.349	0.292	0.455	0.325	0.468	0.108	0.311
Number of Observations	9,488		25,206		24,038		6,907		104,779

Table 2. Multinomial logit regression results, males

Variables	Self-Employment		Unpaid Family Workers		Informal Paid-Employment		Formal Paid Employment
	Coef	Odds Ratio	Coef	Odds Ratio	Coef	Odds Ratio	Coef	Odds Ratio
Pre-Employment Card	0.603**	1.827	0.027	1.027	0.075*	1.078	−0.195	0.823
Living in Urban Areas	−0.506***	0.603	−1.061***	0.346	−0.191***	0.826	0.105***	1.111
University Graduate	0.867***	2.379	0.245***	1.277	0.781***	2.183	1.602***	4.963
High school graduate	0.375***	1.455	0.210***	1.234	0.210***	1.234	0.488***	1.629
Married	0.092	1.096	0.036	1.037	0.300***	1.350	0.671***	1.956
Migrant Residents	2.923***	18.593	0.583***	1.791	2.032***	7.630	2.461***	11.717
Java Island	−0.405***	0.667	−0.623***	0.536	−0.171***	0.843	1.561***	4.764
Sumatra island	−0.134***	0.875	−0.150***	0.861	0.320***	1.377	0.476***	1.610
Kalimantan island	−0.293***	0.746	−0.464***	0.629	0.237***	1.267	1.256***	3.510
Experience	1.149***	3.156	0.561***	1.752	1.323***	3.755	1.179***	3.251
Constant	−2.330***	0.097	−0.731***	0.481	−1.602***	0.202	−4.052***	0.017
Observations	88,118

Standard errors in parentheses

*** p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1

(Relative to unemployment category)

Table 3. Multinomial logit regression results, females

Variables	Self-employment			Unpaid Family Workers				Informal Paid Employment		Formal Paid Employment
	Coef	Odds Ratio		Coef		Odds Ratio		Coef	Odds Ratio	Coef	Odds Ratio
Pre-Employment Card	0.996***	2.708		−0.509		0.601		−0.101	0.904	0.124	1.132
Living in Urban Areas	−0.067*	0.935		−0.629***		0.533		0.713***	2.041	0.237***	1.267
University graduate	1.184***	3.266		0.125**		1.133		2.515***	12.367	1.993***	7.335
High-school graduate	0.503***	1.653		0.078***		1.082		0.572***	1.772	0.601***	1.823
Married	−0.146*	0.865		−0.165***		0.848		0.279***	1.321	0.150***	1.162
Migrant Residents	1.131***	3.098		0.066**		1.068		−0.259***	0.772	−0.300***	0.740
Java Island	−0.031	0.969		−0.472***		0.624		2.190***	8.933	0.421***	1.523
Sumatra island	−0.050	0.951		−0.198***		0.820		0.260***	1.297	0.351***	1.420
Kalimantan island	−0.025	0.975		−0.454***		0.635		1.001***	2.721	0.479***	1.615
Experience	0.729***	2.073		0.233***		1.262		0.966***	2.627	0.926***	2.524
Constant	−3.423***	0.033		−1.261***		0.283		−5.545***	0.004	−2.778***	0.062
Observations	82,300
Standard errors in parentheses*** p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1 (Relative to unemployment category)

Table 4. Income regression results, males

	Lee’s selection			OLS
Variables	Self-Employment	Formal Paid Workers	Informal-Paid Workers	Self-Employment	Formal-paid Workers	Informal-paid Workers
Pre-Employment Card	.044	−.005	−.090	.144	−.026	−.072
Living in Urban Areas	.161***	.054***	.160***	.102***	.059***	.164***
University Graduate	.121	.233***	.043	.145*	.279***	.129***
High school graduate	.033	.059***	.094***	.052*	.088***	.162***
Migrant Residents	.204***	.077***	.048*	.241***	.095***	.117***
Java Island	.159***	−.363***	.042**	.035	−.323***	−.024
Sumatra island	.116***	−.099***	.061***	.022	−.094***	.072***
Kalimantan island	.164***	−.074***	.198***	.057	−.043**	.204***
Experience	−.046	−.033***	.013	−.003	−.029***	.030**
Constant	14.345***	15.189***	14.266***	13.755***	15.014***	13.666***
Observations	3,499	4,096	13,780	3,499	4,096	13,780
Pseudo R squared	.030	.189	.049	.010	.188	.040

Standard errors in parentheses

*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

Table 5. Income regression results, female

Variables	Lee’s selection			OLS
	Self-Employment	Informal-paid Workers	Formal-paid Workers	Self-Employment	Formal-paid Workers	Informal-paid Workers
Pre-Employment Card	−0.200	0.221	0.040	−0.129	−0.028	0.064
Living in Urban Areas	0.191***	−0.200***	0.220***	0.179***	0.096***	0.284***
University Graduate	0.263***	−1.315***	−0.347**	0.269***	0.178***	0.230***
High school graduate	−0.022	−0.892***	−0.076	−0.005	0.024	0.263***
Migrant Residents	0.001	−0.062*	0.101***	0.006	0.032	0.151***
Java Island	−0.107*	−1.160***	0.076***	−0.125**	−0.239***	0.114***
Sumatra island	0.085	−0.022	−0.013	0.068	−0.017	0.032
Kalimantan island	0.051	−0.412***	0.151***	0.044	−0.041	0.237***
Experience	0.062	−0.017	0.024	0.074	−0.018	0.021
Constant	13.560***	18.963***	14.547***	13.233***	14.934***	13.261***
Observations	2,091	2,173	7,966	2,772	2,570	8,204
Pseudo R squared	0.023	0.151	0.078	0.022	0.145	0.077
Standard errors in parentheses*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

Ehrenberg, R. G., & Smith, R. S. (2012). Modern labor Economics: Theory and public (Policy.11th ed.). Pearson Education Inc.

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Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2011). Economic development (11th ed ed.). Pearson Education Limited.

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Anzanello, M. J., & Fogliatto, F. S. (2011). Learning curve models and applications: Literature review and research directions. International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics, 41(5), 573–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ergon.2011.05.001

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