Are the current accounts of Asian-5 economies mean-reverting? New evidence from Fourier panel stationarity tests

Figures & data

Table 1. Summary statistics for the current account to GDP ratio

Country	Mean	SD	Skewness	Kurtosis	J-B
1981 – 1997
Indonesia	−2.922	1.832	−1.314	4.238	0.050
Korea	−1.178	3.901	0.184	3.106	0.949
Malaysia	−4.270	5.673	0.488	2.809	0.705
Philippines	−3.237	2.630	0.369	3.007	0.825
Thailand	−4.880	2.752	0.370	2.089	0.614
1998 – 2006
Indonesia	3.189	1.698	−1.033	2.495	0.428
Korea	2.718	3.238	1.672	4.739	0.070
Malaysia	11.935	3.297	−0.211	1.729	0.714
Philippines	0.317	2.807	0.329	2.308	0.843
Thailand	4.350	4.962	0.096	2.453	0.939
2007 – 2021
Indonesia	−0.991	1.862	0.421	1.926	0.559
Korea	3.958	2.033	−0.388	2.306	0.713
Malaysia	6.908	5.349	0.913	2.178	0.285
Philippines	1.707	2.489	−0.293	1.726	0.541
Thailand	4.079	4.069	−0.143	1.935	0.684
1981 – 2021
Indonesia	−0.874	2.939	0.265	2.732	0.740
Korea	1.556	3.908	−0.365	3.276	0.595
Malaysia	3.377	8.430	−0.144	2.073	0.447
Philippines	−0.648	3.413	−0.037	2.177	0.558
Thailand	0.424	5.847	0.222	2.012	0.367

Note: JB is the p. value for the Jarque-Bera test.⁵

Table 2. Results of CSD tests

Test	Statistic	p-value.
Bias-corrected Scaled LM	28.75***	0.00
CDP	11.44***	0.00
CDNT	10.19***	0.00

Notes: *** 1% significance. The Bias-corrected scaled LM, CSD test, and the CD_P are Baltagi et al. (2012), Pesaran (2004), and Pesaran (2015) CSD tests, respectively.

Table 3. Panel stationarity test results

	Test	Constant	p-value
2nd-generation no-break tests
Hadri and Kurozumi (2011)	Wca	−0.798	0.788
Nazlioglu et al. (2021)	Pca	6.013	0.814
	Pm,ca	−0.892	0.814
	Zca	0.444	0.671
2nd-generation structural break tests
Carrion-I-Silvestre et al. (2005)	W(λ)	0.525	0.752
Nazlioglu and Karul (2017)	W(k=1)	1.432	0.076
	W(k=2)	1.115	0.124
	W(k=3)	0.273	0.392
Nazlioglu et al. (2021)	P(k=1)	16.18	0.095
	P(k =2)	14.72	0.143
	P(k =3)	10.80	0.373
	Pm(k=1)	1.382	0.083
	Pm (k=2)	1.050	0.146
	Pm (k=3)	0.179	0.429
	Z(k=1)	−1.726	0.042
	Z(k=2)	−1.539	0.062
	Z(k=3)	−0.873	0.191

Notes: The W, P_m, and Z tests have p-values that are derived from the Z distribution while the P test uses the chi-square distribution.

Table 4. Results for individual countries based on Hadri and Kurozumi (2011), Carrion-I-Silvestre et al. (2005), and Nazlioglu and Karul (2017)

Country	Hadri and Kurozumi (2011)	Carrion-I-Silvestre et al. (2005)				Nazlioglu and Karul (2017)
	Wca	W(λ)	TB1	TB2	TB3	k=1	k=2	k=3
Indonesia	0.14 (0.427)	0.14	1997	2003	2011	0.07 (0.300)	0.21 (0.219)	0.20 (0.258)
Korea	0.08 (0.694)	0.11	1997	-	-	0.17 (0.052)	0.12 (0.426)	0.17 (0.337)
Malaysia	0.17 (0.333)	0.05	1997	2011	-	0.11 (0.136)	0.27 (0.137)	0.21 (0.243)
Philippines	0.07 (0.739)	0.06	2001	-	-	0.06 (0.391)	0.29 (0.119)	0.12 (0.501)
Thailand	0.08 (0.676)	0.03	1997	-	-	0.06 (0.367)	0.13 (0.415)	0.14 (0.420)

Notes: See Table 3 footnote. P-values are in parentheses. TB is the time of the break based on Bai and Perron (2003).

Figure 1a. The fitted nonlinearities (smooth line), Bai and Perron (2003) intercepts, and current account balance as a percentage of GDP.

Figure 1a. (Continued).

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