Economic convergence in the West African Economic and Monetary Union: a new analysis

Figures & data

Figure 1. Evolution of GFCF as a percentage of GDP of WAEMU countries.

Source: Authors, with African Development Bank statistics.

Figure 2. Evolution of the standard deviation and the average deviation of GFCF as % of GDP of WAEMU countries.

Source: Authors, with African Development Bank statistics.

Figure 3. Total population of WAEMU countries from 1996 to 2021.

Source: Authors, with African Development Bank statistics.

Figure 4. Standard deviation and the average deviation of the total population of the WAEMU countries.

Source: Authors, with African Development Bank statistics.

Figure 5. GDP per capita of the WAEMU countries.

Source: Authors using Data from the African Development Bank.

Figure 6. Standard deviation and the average deviation of GDP per capita of the WAEMU countries.

Source: Authors using Data from the African Development Bank.

Figure 7. Real GDP per capita growth rate in WAEMU.

Source: Authors, with African Development Bank statistics.

Figure 8. Standard deviation of real GDP per capita growth rate in WAEMU.

Source: Authors, with African Development Bank statistics.

Figure 9. Relationship between real GDP per capita growth rate and GDP per capita9.

Source: Authors using AfDB data.

Table 1. Results of estimates.

		Arellano-Bover/Bundell-Bond
Dependent variable: growth rate of real GDP per capita (annual in %)		1	2	3	4	5	6
The growth rate of real GDP per capita at t-1		0.112	0.078	0.010	−0.011	−0.008	−0.026
		(2.12)**	(1.51)	(0.20)	(0.22)	(0.15)	(0.49)
Ln of GDP per capita at current prices at t-1		0.149	−1.279	−0.003	0.159	−0.087	1.672
		(0.30)	(2.12)**	(0.00)	(0.25)	(0.13)	(1.42)
Population growth rate (annual in %)			−2.451	−2.647	−3.016	−2.872	−2.826
			(3.30)***	(3.73)***	(4.32)***	(4.15)***	(4.16)***
Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)			0.195	0.175	0.145	0.184	0.240
			(3.66)***	(3.41)***	(2.83)***	(3.21)***	(3.75)***
Political stability				2.179	1.744	1.728	1.449
				(4.35)***	(3.49)***	(3.48)***	(2.80)***
Quality of regulation					4.931	5.039	4.979
					(3.48)***	(3.58)***	(3.55)***
Current account balance as % of GDP						0.110*	0.109
						(1.65)	(1.64)
Life expectancy at birth, total (years)							−0.282
							(1.83)*
Constant		0.398	11.329	5.273	8.182	9.346	12.514
		(0.12)	(2.67)***	(1.23)	(1.92)	(2.16)**	(2.73)***
N		200	200	200	200	200	200
Sargan test of overidentifying restrictions	Chi^2(227)	241.8729	248.8692				251.1211
H0: Overidentifying restrictions are valid	Prob > chi^2	0.2375	0.1524				0.1302

Note. *p < 0.1, **p < 0.05; ***p < 0.01, () t de student.

Source: The authors.

Figure A1. Evolution of the Real GDP per capita growth rate of the WAEMU countries.

Source: Authors using data from the African Development Bank.

Figure A2. Evolution of the (Boyle and McCARTHY, 1999).

Source: Authors using AfDB data.

Table A1. Databases for control estimates.

Variables	Data source
GDP at constant prices in 2017	PWT
GDP per capita (2011 constant international PPP $)	World Bank
Population	PWT
Urban population	World Bank
Infant mortality rate under five years (per 1,000)	World Bank
Population growth ()	World Bank
Gross capital formation ()	World Bank
Fixed telephony subscriptions ()	World Bank
Political stability and absence of violence/terrorism	WGI
Effectiveness of government	WGI
Regulatory quality	WGI
Rule of law	WGI
Control of corruption	WGI
Voice and accountability	WGI
Export to WAEMU	Trade map

Source: The authors.

Table A2. Summary statistics of study variables.

Variables		Average	Typical deviation	Min	Max	Comments
The growth rate of real GDP per capita (annual %)	Total	1.67369	4.134808	−18.48	32.3	N = 208
	Inter		1.218958	0.1240841	4.063302	n = 8
	Intra		3.973692	−16.93039	29.91039	T = 26
The growth rate of GDP per capita (%)	Total	1.045098	0.1123742	0.6584022	1.490093	N = 208
	Inter		0.0121575	1.025045	1.058482	n = 8
	Intra		0.1117945	0.6591136	1.478718	T = 26
GDP per capita (current value in US$)	Total	735.6683	454.513	151	2599	N = 208
	Inter		335.5197	364.3269	1398.596	n = 8
	Intra		328.0312	1.072115	1936.072	T = 26
Population growth rate (annual %)	Total	2.298077	0.4915677	1	3	N = 208
	Inter		0.360215	1.865385	3	n = 8
	Intra		0.3571482	1.432692	3.182692	T = 26
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (% of GDP)	Total	19.81678	6.802342	1.89	39.95	N = 208
	Inter		4.613806	11.2558	24.90692	n = 8
	Intra		5.24934	5.622637	34.85987	T = 26
Population. total	Total	1.20E + 07	6388286	1110833	2.71E + 07	N = 208
	Inter		6056790	1503032	2.03E + 07	n = 8
	Intra		2925067	5535581	2.08E + 07	T = 26
Political stability	Total	−0.5187697	0.710633	−2.264047	1.04893	N = 208
	Inter		0.4497626	−1.222313	0.3399849	n = 8
	Intra		0.5719646	−2.104736	0.7383824	T = 26
Quality of regulation	Total	−0.54544	0.3184202	−1.263349	−0.047789	N = 208
	Inter		0.2981541	−1.133669	−0.1866812	n = 8
	Intra		0.1524198	−0.9356445	−0.1676055	T = 26
Intra-WAEMU export	Total	298672.5	360373.7	6.529	1564958	N = 208
	Inter		322062.4	422.9042	969156.4	n = 8
	Intra		196652.2	−198546	948784.8	T = 26
Current account balance (% GDP)	Total	−5.907211	4.89117	−24.48	10.373	N = 208
	Inter		3.449134	−11.39225	0.1958869	n = 8
	Intra		3.669304	−18.99496	5.502703	T = 26
Life expectancy at birth. total (years)	Total	55.83894	4.849849	46	68	N = 208
	Inter		3.208204	52.51923	62.34615	n = 8
	Intra		3.804146	47.49279	63.49279	T = 26
Inflows Investment direct foreign (at current prices in millions)	Total	230.2919	272.5875	−183.3876	1480.501	N = 208
	Inter		146.0653	15.62251	429.5148	n = 8
	Intra		235.681	−145.6759	1329.351	T = 26

Source: Authors using data from the African Development Bank.

Table A3. Results of estimates.

	Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data estimation
Dependent variable: growth rate of real GDP per capita (annual in %)	1	2	3	4	5
The growth rate of real GDP per capita at t-1	0.117	0.073	−0.030	−0.032	−0.034
	(1.66)	(1.04)	(0.43)	(0.45)	(0.48)
Ln of GDP per capita at current prices at t-1	0.104	−1.265	0.905	1.372	1.197
	(0.15)	(1.54)	(0.99)	(0.69)	(0.61)
Population growth rate (annual in %)		−1.605	−2.776	−2.788	−2.739
		(1.83)	(3.32)**	(3.23)**	(3.13)**
Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)		0.186	0.110	0.112	0.119
		(2.74)**	(1.66)	(1.60)	(1.66)
Political stability			2.366	2.399	2.399
			(3.69)**	(3.37)**	(3.32)**
Quality of regulation			3.321	3.448	3.702
			(1.68)	(1.77)	(1.87)
Intra-WAEMU export				−0.000	−0.000
				(0.33)	(0.16)
Life expectancy at birth, total (years)				−0.030	0.013
				(0.13)	(0.05)
Inflows Foreign direct investment					−0.001
					(0.62)
Constant	0.678	9.481	3.041	1.994	0.754
	(0.15)	(1.79)	(0.56)	(0.31)	(0.12)
N	192	192	192	192	192
Sargan test of overidentifying restrictions
H0: Overidentifying restrictions are valid
Chi^2(180)	166.2474	180.0102	183.5559	181.8926	183.0464
Prob > chi^2	0.7608	0.4858	0.4124	0.4465	0.4228

Note.  **p < 0.01, () t de student.

Source: The authors.

Boyle, G. E., &McCARTHY, T. G. (1999). Simple measures of convergence in per capita GDP: a note on some further international evidence. Applied Economics Letters, 6(6), 343–347. 10.1080/135048599353041

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Data availability statement

The data supporting the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.