The determinants of job losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic in small Island developing states

Figures & data

Figure 1. Number of firms reporting a change in employment as a result of COVID-19 by country.

Source: Compete Caribbean (2021).

Table 1. Number of firms using innovation as a response to COVID-19.

Country	Yes	No	Total
Antigua and Barbuda	5	145	150
Barbados	0	170	170
Belize	2	155	157
Dominica	2	135	137
Grenada	5	119	124
Guyana	6	149	155
Jamaica	10	162	172
St Kitts and Nevis	2	128	130
St Lucia	5	147	152
St Vincent	4	129	133
Suriname	14	148	162
The Bahamas	8	149	157
Trinidad and Tobago	8	172	180
Total	71	1908	1979

Source: Compete Caribbean (2021).

Table 2. Changes in employment by skill and gender.

	Female Skilled			Total Skilled			Female Unskilled			Total Unskilled
Country	+	–	=	+	–	=	+	–	=	+	–	=
Antigua & Barbuda	2	11	39	6	15	38	0	11	30	1	19	30
Barbados	1	25	54	1	52	48	0	19	21	1	22	51
Belize	7	30	57	5	41	33	0	13	24	1	18	51
Dominica	3	23	55	9	39	43	0	15	20	0	30	39
Grenada	2	14	45	3	26	40	0	10	26	1	18	36
Guyana	2	15	50	3	19	36	0	3	30	4	25	35
Jamaica	6	5	53	22	9	53	2	9	34	1	12	41
St Kitts & Nevis	4	25	54	5	39	37	1	11	21	2	16	47
St Lucia	3	9	1	7	24	41	1	13	23	3	18	32
St Vincent	7	6	50	25	18	54	3	14	24	7	37	23
Suriname	6	4	53	15	13	50	1	6	31	4	21	34
The Bahamas	5	4	57	25	17	61	2	11	28	2	43	25
Trinidad & Tobago	2	24	66	7	39	51	1	12	31	2	22	53

+ means increase, - means decrease and = means no change.

Source: Compete Caribbean (2021).

Figure 2. Area under ROC Curve.

Table 3. Probit model of job losses in the Caribbean.

Variable	Coefficient Estimate	Marginal Effects
Any obstacle to doing business since COVID	0.015 (0.008)*	0.005 (0.003)*
Practices of competitors in informal sector
Minor obstacle	0.168 (0.106)	0.054 (0.034)
Moderate obstacle	0.298 (0.113)***	0.095 (0.036)***
Very severe obstacle	0.232 (0.153)	0.074 (0.049)
Macroeconomic environment as obstacle to doing busines	−0.171 (0.104)*	−0.055 (0.033)*
Telecommunications as obstacle
Minor obstacle	−0.168 (0.098)*	−0.054 (0.031)*
Moderate obstacle	−0.239 (0.132)*	−0.076 (0.042)*
Access to finance as obstacle
Minor obstacle	−0.271 (0.169)	−0.086 (0.054)
Moderate obstacle	−0.332 (0.135)**	−0.106 (0.043)**
Major obstacle	−0.331 (0.097)***	−0.105 (0.031)***
Access to electricity as obstacle
Major obstacle	−0.339 (0.001)***	−0.108 (0.033)***
Very severe obstacle	−0.546 (0.128)***	−0.174 (0.041)***
Transportation as an obstacle
Major obstacle	−0.196 (0.116)*	−0.062 (0.037)*
Access to land
Major obstacle	−0.358 (0.109)***	−0.114 (0.033)***
Very severe obstacle	−0.383 (0.125)***	−0.122 (0.040)***
Political environment
Minor obstacle	−0.249 (0.100)**	−0.079 (0.032)**
Major obstacle	−0.400 (0.123)***	−0.128 (0.039)***
Very severe obstacle	−0.349 (0.155)**	−0.111 (0.049)**
Tax rates
Very severe obstacle	0.172 (0.104)*	0.055 (0.033)*
Business licensing and permits
Minor obstacle	0.326 (0.105)***	0.104 (0.033)***
Very severe obstacle	0.286 (0.143)**	0.091 (0.046)**
Customs and trade regulations
Moderate obstacle	−0.597 (0.161)***	−0.190 (0.052)***
Major obstacle	−0.405 (0.133)***	−0.129 (0.043)***
Very severe obstacle	−0.423 (0.142)***	−0.135 (0.045)***
Inadequately trained labour force
Major obstacle	−0.183 (0.098)*	−0.058 (0.031)*
Crime, Theft and Disorder
Major obstacle	−0.141 (0.106)	−0.044 (0.034)
Services	−0.137 (0.087)	−0.044 (0.028)
Private shareholding company	0.529 (0.179)***	0.169 (0.057)***
Sole proprietorship	0.337 (0.169)**	0.107 (0.054)**
Partnership	0.408 (0.186)**	0.130 (0.059)**
Limited partnership	0.307 (0.205)	0.098 (0.065)
No overdraft	0.165 (0.109)	0.053 (0.035)
Age	−0.097 (0.070)	−0.031 (0.022)
Innovations reduced energy use
No	0.418 (0.158)***	0.134 (0.050)***
Introduced new good since COVID	−0.591 (0.366)*	−0.188 (0.117)*
Introduce new methods of producing goods
No	0.206 (0.154)	0.066 (0.049)
Since COVID reduced material use
No	−0.289 (0.164)*	−0.092 (0.052)*
Does not have a website	0.165 (0.094)*	0.053 (0.030)*
Does not have a social media presence	0.164 (0.087)*	0.052 (0.028)*
Percentage of sales paid online	0.010 (0.006)*	0.003 (0.002)*
Female top manager	−0.224 (0.106)**	−0.072 (0.034)**
Wages	−0.173 (0.038)***	−0.055 (0.012)***
Direct exports	−0.003 (0.002)	−0.001 (0.001)
Local market share	0.012 (0.006)**	0.004 (0.002)**
Intercept	2.436 (0.668)***	–
observations	1220
LR	306.420***
Pseudo R2	0.207

***, ** and * indicates significance at the 1, 5 and 10 percent level of significance. 

Compete Caribbean. (2021). IFPG dataset- the impact of COVID-19, innovation, firm performance and gender in the Caribbean. IDB.

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