Revisiting the effect of the EAC customs union on intra-regional trade performance: does it only matter for exports?

Figures & data

Table 1. Variables, definition, and sources of data.

Variable	Definitions	Expected sign	Source of data
Expr	Value in US$ thousands	N/A	ITC Trademap
Importr	Value in US$ thousands	N/A	ITC Trademap
GDPr	Value in US$ at current price million	+	UNCTADstat
GDPp	Value in US$ at current price million	+	UNCTADstat
POPr	Absolute value in thousands	+	UNCTADstat
POPp	Absolute value in thousands	+	UNCTADstat
Distrp	Distance between the biggest cities of the trading partner (in kilometres)	–	CEPII
CUr	1 from 2005 (from 2007 for Rwanda and Burundi); 0, otherwise	+	Created based on information in the EAC website
lang	1 for countries sharing an official language; 0, otherwise	+	CEPII
border	1 for countries sharing the border; 0, otherwise	+	CEPII
col	1 for country pairs having a common colonizer post 1945	+	CEPII

Source: Authors’ compilation.

Table 2. Summary statistics of the key variables.

S/N	Variable	Obs	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min	Max
1	lexp	398	10.25	1.98	4.28	13.66
2	limport	395	9.52	2.61	.69	13.62
3	ltotrade	399	11.23	1.60	4.19	14.07
4	lgdp_rep	400	9.49	1.33	6.39	11.61
5	lgdp_part	400	9.49	1.33	6.39	11.61
6	lpop_rep	400	10.06	.72	8.80	11.06
7	lpop_part	400	10.06	.72	8.80	11.06
8	ldist	400	6.47	.56	5.19	7.07
9	lang	400	.70	.46	0	1
10	col	400	.40	.49	0	1
11	border	400	.70	.46	0	1
12	eac_cu	400	.78	.41	0	1

Source: Authors’ calculation.

Table 3. Gravity equation results (dependent variable: exports, imports, total trade).

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)
VARIABLES	lexp	lexp	Lexp	limport	limport	limport	ltotrade
lgdp_rep	0.188	0.219	0.219	0.695	0.718	0.718	−0.102
	(0.566)	(0.571)	(0.571)	(0.798)	(0.806)	(0.806)	(0.527)
lgdp_part	0.309	0.339	0.339	0.970	0.992	0.992	0.704
	(0.565)	(0.571)	(0.571)	(0.805)	(0.812)	(0.812)	(0.527)
ldist	1.564	1.436	2.151	0.477	0.383	0.383	1.385
	(1.747)	(1.773)	(1.745)	(2.482)	(2.519)	(2.519)	(1.637)
lang			3.565*			3.735	−1.670
			(2.045)			(2.447)	(1.592)
col			−1.851			0.0640	2.609
			(3.373)			(2.758)	(1.798)
border			1.806			−3.981	−2.824**
			(2.188)			(3.446)	(1.399)
eac_cu		0.135	0.135		0.100	0.100	0.154
		(0.310)	(0.310)		(0.438)	(0.438)	(0.287)
Constant	−4.266	−4.037	−12.22**	−8.691*	−8.523	−8.342	−1.562
	(3.631)	(3.673)	(5.153)	(5.163)	(5.222)	(6.189)	(6.006)
Observations	398	398	398	395	395	395	399
R-squared	0.838	0.838	0.838	0.814	0.814	0.814	0.788

Note: Standard errors in parentheses.

*** p < 0.01.

** p < 0.05.

* p < 0.1.

Source: Authors’ calculation.

Table 4. Country trade effect of EAC customs union [market size measured by GDP].

Dependent variable	Tanzania	Kenya	Rwanda	Uganda	Burundi
Exports	S*	NS	–	-NS	S***
Imports	NS	-S**	–	S***	NS
Total trade	NS	-NS	–	NS	S**

Source: Authors’ calculation.

Note: S, statistical significance; NS, not statistically significant; -NS, negative and statistically insignificant effect; robust standard errors are in parentheses:

*** p < 0.01.

** p < 0.05.

* p < 0.1.

Table 5. Country trade effect of EAC customs union [market size measured by POP].

Dependent variable	Tanzania	Kenya	Rwanda	Uganda	Burundi
Exports	S*	S*	-S*	-NS	-S***
Imports	NS	-S**	S***	S***	NS
Total trade	S*	NS	S**	-NS	-NS

Source: Authors’ calculation.

Note: S, statistical significance; NS, not statistically significant; -NS, negative and statistically insignificant effect; robust standard errors are in parentheses:

*** p < 0.01.

** p < 0.05.

* p < 0.1.

Data availability statement

The data supporting the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.