3 Europe and Eurasia

Abstract

Key trends

• Notwithstanding continued tensions and fighting, hostilities eased and violence declined in both conflicts compared to the previous year.

Strategic implications

• The conflict is highly detrimental to the economies of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The war in Donbas had a catastrophic impact on Ukraine’s economy, compromising the ability of many Ukrainians to survive.

• The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict continued to have a significant humanitarian impact on civilians.

Prospects

• The likelihood of political dialogues towards peace remains moderate despite some positive steps in 2019 in both conflicts.

• In Nagorno-Karabakh the short- to medium-term risk of major violence is moderate.

• The conflicts receive limited international attention but foreign influence continues to have an impact. Conflict parties will need to factor in, among others, Russia–US and Russia–Turkey relations in their calculations.

Notes

1 Joshua Kucera, ‘US rebukes Armenia over Syria deployment’, Eurasianet, 14 February 2019.

2 C. W. Blandy, ‘Azerbaijan: Is war over Nagorny Karabakh a realistic option?’, Conflict Studies Research Centre Caucasus Series 08/17, Defence Academy of the United Kingdom, May 2008, p. 14.

3 Ron Synovitz, ‘“Open Secret”: Experts Cast Doubt on Yerevan’s Claims over Nagorno-Karabakh’, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 5 April 2016.

4 Numbers of settlers are exaggerated on all sides. Yet even demographically limited settlement poses the problem of either relocating settler communities in the event of an agreement which envisages the return of displaced communities, or long-term reconciliation processes between the two populations.

5 See Conciliation Resources, ‘A Final Status Vote for Nagorny Karabakh: Choosing Politics?’, May 2018.

6 ‘2019 Ends as Most Peaceful Year in 25 Years of Ceasefire’, University of Southern California Dornsife Institute of Armenian Studies, 31 December 2019.

7 ‘Armenian Government Plans Further Rise in Public Spending’, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Armenian Service, 30 September 2019.

8 ‘Armenia government approves defense budget for 2020’, Panarmenian.net, 1 October 2019.

9 Emil Sanamyan, ‘US Allocates $100 million in Security Aid to Azerbaijan in 2018–19’, University of Southern California Dornsife Institute of Armenian Studies, 17 July 2019.

10 Peace Dialogue, ‘Safe Soldiers for a Safe Armenia’.

11 Caucasian Knot, ‘CDSI reports 20 perished Azerbaijani soldiers in 2019’, 23 July 2019.

12 International Committee of the Red Cross, ‘Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: Landmines, a disturbing reminder of war’, 31 May 2019.

13 ‘Two Karabakh refugees killed in Baku communal housing fire’, JAM News, 7 March 2019.

14 ‘Fire in Baku leaves 46 IDP families homeless’, JAM News, 15 November 2019.

15 Berlin Economics, ‘The economic effect of a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on Armenia and Azerbaijan’, June 2018.

1 ‘Over 21,000 people accepted for military service in Ukraine in 2019’, 112UA, 9 August 2019.

2 Illia Ponomarenko, ‘Zelensky appoints new top military commander in Donbas’, KyivPost, 5 August 2019.

3 Nolan Peterson, ‘After 4 Years of a Frozen Conflict, Ukrainians Slowly Retake Ground From Russian Forces’, Daily Signal, 13 May 2019.

4 ‘Around 3–4 thousand Russian volunteers fighting for Donetsk People’s Republic militia’, TASS, 28 August 2014.

5 Richard Arnold, ‘Russian-Backed Luhansk Authorities Enlist Help of Local Cossacks’, Jamestown Foundation, 16 July 2019.

6 Ilya Prizel, ‘Nation-Building and Foreign Policy’, in Sharon L. Wolchik and Volodymyr Zviglyanich (eds.), Ukraine: The Search for a National Identity (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2000), pp. 11–29: 13; Richard Sakwa, Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands (London: I.B. Tauris, 2015), p. 15.

7 See Law of Ukraine, ‘On ensuring the functioning of the Ukrainian language as a state language’, Verkhovna Rada (BBR) Bulletin, 25 April 2019, no. 21, p. 81.

8 Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, ‘Report on the human rights situation in Ukraine 16 August to 15 November 2019’, 12 December 2019.

9 UNIAN Information Agency, ‘Gaining ground: Ukraine Army advances in Donbas “gray zone”’, 11 April 2019.

10 UNIAN Information Agency, ‘Ukrainian troops get close to Donetsk – JFO HQ’, 12 June 2019.

11 UNIAN Information Agency, ‘Donbas war veterans to stay in Zolote in defiance of government’s disengagement plans’, 26 October 2019.

12 UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Ukraine, ‘Registration of Internal Displacement’, 10 January 2020.

13 Ibid.

14 Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, ‘Ukraine: Figure Analysis – Displacement Related to Conflict and Violence’, May 2019.

15 Mila O’Sullivan, ‘“Being strong enough to defend yourself”: Untangling the Women, Peace and Security agenda amidst the Ukrainian conflict’, International Feminist Journal of Politics, vol. 21, no. 5, April 2019; Tetyana Bureychak and Olena Petrenko, ‘Heroic masculinity in post-soviet Ukraine: Cossacks, UPA and “Svoboda”’, East/West: Journal of Ukrainian Studies, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 3–27.

16 Teah Pelechaty, ‘Violence against women remains silent epidemic in Ukraine’, KyivPost, 16 July 2019; Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, ‘Gender Dimensions of SMM Monitoring’, 1 January 2017–1 November 2018’, December 2018.

17 OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, ‘Gender Dimensions of SMM Monitoring’, 1 January 2017–1 November 2018’.

18 State Statistics Service of Ukraine, ‘Structure of total expenditure’, 2019.