Russia and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: a question of the commitment capacity

ABSTRACT

Russia is one of the founding members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and, next to China, one of its leaders. While being an active and engaging member of the organization, Russia’s strategy towards SCO remains puzzling. Initially, it sought a pragmatic cooperation with China on solving numerous security issues that plagued post-Soviet Central Asia. However, Russia gradually developed alternative regional bodies (viz. Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)) where it is a supreme leader, and which became its preferred tools for interacting with other states in the post-Soviet space. This impacted the place and role of the SCO in Russia’s regional and global strategies. Moreover, Russia’s growing power asymmetry vis-à-vis China added an additional dimension to its consideration of SCO. Hence, Moscow promoted several policies, especially the enlargement, which seemed to undercut SCO’s development. This paper relies on a theoretical framework of the so-called theory of cooperative hegemony, especially the application of one of its main analytical variables – the commitment capacity – to examine Russia’s policy towards SCO. Apart from considerable secondary sources, the article draws upon six semi-structured expert interviews, and a number of primary documents including but not limited to foreign policy concepts, declarations, and charters.

KEYWORDS:

• Russia
• Shanghai Cooperation Organization
• cooperation
• hegemony
• Central Asia

Acknowledgments

The author would like to thank all the experts and officials whom he had interviewed during his research. He is also grateful to the two anonymous reviewers and the editorial team of the journal for their helpful feedback and assistance on the manuscript.

Notes

1 President of Russia (2018, June 6). Interview with China Media Group. Retrieved from http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57684.

2 President of Russia (2019, June 14). Speech at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Heads of State Council Meeting in expanded format. Retrieved from http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/60750.

3 ‘The Moscow Declaration of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation,’ 10 November 2020. Retrieved from http://eng.sectsco.org/documents/

4 Ibid.

5 President of Russia (2020, September 9). Meeting with SCO foreign ministers. Retrieved from http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/64016.

6 Among the vast literature on the subject, I would recommend, for instance, Trenin (2007), Cooley (2012), Cooley (2019), Lukin (2018), Sakwa (2017), Gabuev (2019), Facon (2013), Kaczmarski (2015), Aris (2011), Denisov and Safranchuk (2016), Zhao (2011), Allison (2018).

7 Edwards, J. (2015, February 17). Joseph Nye just delivered the most complete, cogent analysis of the Russian 'threat' we've heard this year. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-in-decline-joseph-nye-quote-2015-2?r=US&IR=T.

8 Article 13, Charter of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, 7th June 2002, retrieved from http://eng.sectsco.org/documents/.

9 Article 2, Charter of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

10 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OF THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANISATION UNTIL 2025, July 2017. Retrieved from http://eng.sectsco.org/documents/.

11 Article 5, Charter of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

12 Article 16, Charter of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

13 Article 17, Charter of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

14 Article 17, Russian National Security Strategy, 12 May 2009 No. 537.

15 Article 77, Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation Approved by President of the Russian Federation V. Putin on 12 February 2013. Retrieved from http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents/-/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/2542248.

16 Article 79, Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation (approved by President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin on November 30, 2016. Retrieved from http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents/-/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/2542248.

17 Interview with Dr. Marcin Kaczmarski, Lecturer in Security Studies (Central and East European Studies) at University of Glasgow, 16^th May 2019.

18 Ibid.

19 Ibid.

20 President of Russia (2004, 15 January). President Vladimir Putin sent a message to Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Secretary-General Zhang Deguang following the start of the SCO Secretariat's work. Retrieved from http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/30147.

21 President of Russia (2006, 14 June). SCO – a New Model of Successful International Cooperation. Retrieved from http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/23633.

22 Ibid.

23 President of Russia (2020, September 9). Meeting with SCO foreign ministers. Retrieved from http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/64016.

24 Article 79, Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation (approved by President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin on November 30, 2016).

25 Article 80, Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation, 12 February 2013.

26 Article 21, THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (approved by the President of the Russian Federation, 24 December 2014), 29 June 2015. Retrieved from https://rusemb.org.uk/press/2029.

27 Bishkek Declaration by the Heads of the Member States of the SCO, 16 August 2007. Retrieved from http://eng.sectsco.org/documents/.

28 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OF THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANISATION UNTIL 2025, July 2017.

29 Ibid.

30 The Astana declaration of the Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, 9^th June 2017. Retrieved from http://eng.sectsco.org/documents/.

31 Interview with Dr. Richard Sakwa, Professor of Russian and European Politics at University of Kent, and an Associate Fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, 7th May 2019.

32 DECLARATION on the Fifth Anniversary of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, 15 June 2006. Retrieved from http://eng.sectsco.org/documents/.

33 DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OF THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANISATION UNTIL 2025, July 2017.

34 ‘Press release on the Meeting of the Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of SCO Member States,’ 11 September 2020. Retrieved from https://eng.sco-russia2020.ru/news/20200911/756931/Press-release-on-the-Meeting-of-the-Council-of-Ministers-of-Foreign-Affairs-of-SCO-Member-States.html.

35 ‘Article of the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov ‘The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation: Peace and prosperity through security and stability’ published in Rossiyskaya Gazeta of September 10, 2014,’ The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, 10 September 2014. Retrieved from http://www.mid.ru/en/web/guest/maps/uz/-/asset_publisher/n9psHApVxR46/content/id/671483

36 DECLARATION BY THE HEADS OF THE MEMBER STATES OF THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANISATION, June 2002. Retrieved from < http://eng.sectsco.org/documents/>.

37 DECLARATION by the Heads of the Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (Astana, July 5, 2005). Retrieved from http://eng.sectsco.org/documents/.

38 The Astana declaration of the Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, 9^th June 2017. Retrieved from http://eng.sectsco.org/documents/.

39 Interview with Dr. Marcin Kaczmarski, 16^th May 2019.

40 Quoted in Piekos, W. & and Economy, E.C. (2015, July 7), The Risks and Rewards of SCO Expansion. Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/risks-and-rewards-sco-expansion.

41 Interview with Dr. Gilbert Rozman, Emeritus Musgrave Professor of Sociology at Princeton University and the editor-in-chief of The Asan Forum, 14 May 2019.

42 Ibid.

43 Ibid.

44 Yurou (2017, November 30). Commentary: Enlarged SCO to better benefit regional stability, development. Xinhua Net, http://www.xinhuanet.com//english/2017-11/30/c_136790161.htm.

45 Ibid.

46 ‘Press release on the SCO Council of Foreign Ministers meeting,’ 24 April 2018, Secretariat of the SCO.

47 ‘Press release on the Meeting of the Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of SCO Member States,’ 11 September 2020. Retrieved from https://eng.sco-russia2020.ru/news/20200911/756931/Press-release-on-the-Meeting-of-the-Council-of-Ministers-of-Foreign-Affairs-of-SCO-Member-States.html.

48 ‘SCO – a New Model of Successful International Cooperation,’ President of Russia, 14 June 2006. Retrieved from http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/23633.

49 Interview with anonymous Russian expert, April 17, 2019, Fudan University (Shanghai).

50 DECLARATION ON THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANISATION, 15 June 2001. Retrieved from http://eng.sectsco.org/documents/.

51 DUSHANBE DECLARATION, 28^th August 2008. Retrieved from http://eng.sectsco.org/documents/.

52 DUSHANBE DECLARATION by the Heads of the Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, 12^th September 2014. Retrieved from http://eng.sectsco.org/documents/.

53 Interview with Mr. Alexander Gabuev, Senior Fellow and the Chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, 7th June 2019.

54 The memorandum of understanding between the Secretariat of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation and the Secretariat of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation of October 5, 2007. Retrieved from http://cis-legislation.com/document.fwx?rgn=46847.

55 Ibid.

56 Shih, G. (2019, February 18). In Central Asia’s forbidding highlands, a quiet newcomer: Chinese troops. The Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/in-central-asias-forbidding-highlands-a-quiet-newcomer-chinese-troops/2019/02/18/78d4a8d0-1e62-11e9-a759-2b8541bbbe20_story.html?utm_term=.2efb2af51d60.

57 Interview with Mr. Alexander Gabuev, 7th June 2019.

58 Interview with Dr. Gilbert Rozman, 14^th May 2019.

59 President of Russia (2020, 10 November). SCO Heads of State Council meeting. Retrieved from http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/64385

60 ‘Russian Defence Minister chairs joint meeting of SCO, CIS and CSTO defence ministers in the Moscow Region,’ SCO Russia 2019-2020, 7 September 2020. Retrieved from https://eng.sco-russia2020.ru/news/20200907/710791/Russian-Defence-Minister-chairs-joint-meeting-of-SCO-CIS-and-CSTO-defence-ministers-in-the-Moscow.html

61 Interview with Mr. Alexander Gabuev, 7th June 2019.

62 GDP (current US$) - Russian Federation, China (2019 figures), The World Bank, accessed April 2021. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=RU-CN.

63 Interview with Dr. Fraser Cameron, Director of the EU-Asia Centre, a Senior Advisor at the European Policy Centre (EPC), an adjunct professor at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, and former British diplomat and EU official, 9^th September 2019.

64 Interview with Mr. Alexander Gabuev, 7th June 2019.

65 Article 16, Charter of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, 7 June 2002.