Distribution shifts in habitat suitability and hotspot refugia of Andean tree species from the last glacial maximum to the Anthropocene

Figures & data

Figure 1. Climatic envelope of 17 species of Polylepis in the central Andes as a function of: a) mean annual precipitation vs. mean annual temperature, b) maximum temperature of warmest month vs. minimum temperature of coldest quarter, and c) precipitation of driest quarter vs. precipitation of wettest quarter in the central Andes used for species distribution models

Table 1. Most explanatory variables for model fit, according to the jackknife test of Maxent for 17 Polylepis species in the central Andes

Species	AUC	Bio1	Bio2	Bio3	Bio4	Bio5	Bio6	Bio7	Bio8	Bio9	Bio10	Bio11	Bio12	Bio13	Bio14	Bio15	Bio16	Bio17	Bio18	Bio19
Polylepis besseri	0.991				47.7	0.8	1.9	0.1		35.9			0.3	2		1.4	7.2	0.4	2.2
Polylepis crista-galli	0.996		0.1	6.9	0.1		74.9		0.4				1.1		14.6	0.1		0.6	1	0.1
Polylepis flavipila	0.993			4.8	5.1	0.2			1.3								2.1			86.5
Polylepis hieronymi	0.996		0.1	1.8	2.9	20.5	41.4		9.3	0.5				4.7	0.3			0.4	18
Polylepis incarum	0.993			0.8	9.9	0.4			71.5	0.9	3.5			0.2	0.1	1.1	10.4		0.9	0.4
Polylepis lanata	0.995		0.1		11.1		75.3			0.9			0.8	0.5	0.7		4.7		5.4	0.5
Polylepis neglecta	0.986			2.5	67.5	14.4	3.2		0.5					10.6		0.5		0.7
Polylepis pauta	0.988			0.1	30.7	0.4	42.8						0.3	3.9	0.5	8.8	1.2	2	0.2	9.1
Polylepis pepei	0.993			10.4	50.1		1.8	1		29.7			0.3	3.8		0.3	0.4	0.4	0.7	0.9
Polylepis racemosa	0.933			5.6	15.5		17.7	2		1.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	17.8	3	7.1	16.7		3.3
Polylepis rugulosa	0.998		0.3	2.7	9.9							78.6				7.7			0.1	0.7
Polylepis subsericans	0.998		0.9		61.3		0.3			10.1				0.5	2.2	0.8			23.3	0.6
Polyelpis subtusalbida	0.995			7.8	21.9		48.2			1.5			2.5	8.3	2.3				7.5
Polylepis tarapacana	0.989	0.3		0.3	16.6	0.3		0.5	65.9	0.5			0.3	4.9		3.5	0.3	5.8	0.6
Polyelpis tomentella	0.986	0.1	0.2	14.4	56	3.1	1.4		0.3	0.7	0.2		0.4	5.6	9.1	6.2	0.6		1.1	0.7
Polylepis triacontandra	0.996			25.2	59	4.2				1.1				0.9		3.4	0.7			5.5
Polylepis webarbeueri	0.993			9.8		2.1		3	23.5		32.6	2.8			4.4		11.2	5.3

Figure 2. Potential distribution maps for 17 species of Polylepis in the central Andes generated with Maxent under the Last glacial Maximum (~22,000 yr BP) on the left, the mid-Holocene (~6,000 yr BP) center, and current conditions (1,970–2,000) on the right. Areas where probability of occurrence was predicted by only one climate scenario are indicated with the lightest color (1), areas predicted by two climate scenarios are indicated with an intermediate color (2), while areas where probability of occurrences were predicted by three climate scenarios are depicted with the darkest color (3)

Figure 2. (Continued)

Figure 2. (Continued)

Table 2. Predicted distribution change (%) under three different climate scenarios for 17 Polylepis species in the Last Glacial Maximum (22,000 yr BP) and the middle Holocene (6,000 yr BP) relative to the present-day distribution area

Species	Last Glacial Maximum				Middle Holocene
	CCSM4	MPI-ESM-P	MIROC-ESM	Consensus	CCSM4	MPI-ESM-P	MIROC-ESM	Consensus
Polylepis besseri	86.16	133.94	432.38	43.08	167.89	205.22	441.25	98.43
Polylepis crista-galli	27.42	40.32	25.00	16.53	78.63	14.52	1.61	1.21
Polylepis flavipila	51.63	14.18	69.89	4.25	18.93	65.47	54.96	13.59
Polylepis hieronymi	120.23	262.99	219.08	221.84	5.06	2.30	0.23	0.23
Polylepis incarum	136.18	72.36	167.34	35.68	1327.14	1753.27	2108.54	1158.29
Polylepis lanata	100.00	89.20	501.70	38.64	442.61	346.59	854.55	245.45
Polylepis neglecta	35.31	70.39	160.31	10.31	19.08	35.75	0.00	17.32
Polylepis pauta	48.12	139.38	53.59	6.75	127.22	81.95	40.05	16.25
Polylepis pepei	101.28	1019.87	268.59	10.26	294.87	1028.21	1026.28	85.90
Polylepis racemosa	100.37	74.21	29.16	30.09	256.07	344.67	236.07	134.77
Polylepis rugulosa	260.44	262.22	327.11	327.11	7.56	0.00	10.67	18.22
Polylepis subsericans	55.12	4.43	9.70	1.94	210.25	119.11	62.33	58.45
Polyelpis subtusalbida	5.34	53.74	146.26	3.91	270.11	352.67	1246.98	5.69
Polylepis tarapacana	232.93	192.02	296.61	165.87	195.81	134.73	128.34	75.65
Polyelpis tomentella	387.33	675.21	269.42	78.51	130.03	97.52	54.55	8.54
Polylepis triacontandra	235.38	246.19	44.96	141.52	408.35	397.05	1295.58	238.08
Polylepis webarbeueri	101.10	17.28	1927.21	11.76	77.57	69.12	58.82	17.65

Figure 3. Centers of current refugia for 17 species of Polylepis in central Andes, based on habitat suitability generated with Maxent. Current refugia are defined as the intersection of areas classified as suitable habitat over the Last Glacial Maximum, mid Holocene and Anthropocene. Highlighted areas show climate refugia for a) central Cordillera of Peru, b) Lake Titicaca basin, c) western Cordillera of Bolivia, and d) semiarid Andes of Chile . Areas where probability of occurrence was predicted by only one climate scenario are indicated with the lightest color (1), areas predicted by two climate scenarios are indicated with an intermediate color (2), while areas where probability of occurrences were predicted by three climate scenarios are depicted with the darkest color (3)