A review of the potential impacts of climate change on the safety and performance of bridges

Figures & data

Table 1. Projected future trends of different climate parameters/phenomena

Climate parameter/phenomenon	Trend of change	Reference(s)
Temperature	- Higher global mean (T↑) - Higher seasonal contrast in some locations (T↔)	IPCC (2013) Imada et al. (2017)
Heatwaves	- Increased intensity and/or frequency (HW↑)	The World Bank (2012)
Solar radiation	- Possible increase in some regions (SR↑)	McKenzie et al. (2011) Ohunakin, Adaramola, Oyewola, Matthew, & Fagbenle (2015)
Precipitation	- Increase in intensity and/or frequency in some regions (P↑) - Decrease in intensity and/or frequency in other regions (P↓) - Increase in contrast between wet and dry regions and seasons (P↔)	IPCC (2013)
Snowfall	- Increase in intensity and/or frequency in some regions (SF↑)	IPCC (2013)
Relative humidity	- Decrease in relative humidity over land for most regions. (RH↓) - Increase in relative humidity over land for some regions under some scenarios (RH↑)	IPCC (2013)
Wind	- Increase in speed in some regions during some seasons (W↑) - A decrease in speed during other seasons (W↓) - Increase in intensity and/or frequency of extreme wind events (W↑)	IPCC (2013) Cradden, Harrison, & Chick (2006) Bloom, Kotroni, & Lagouvardos (2008)
Soil salinity	- Increase in some regions (SS↑)	Dasgupta, Hossain, Huq, &Wheeler (2015)
Storms	- Increase in intensity and/or frequency in some regions (S↑)	IPCC (2013)
Sea level	- Sea level rise (SLR)	IPCC (2013)
Carbon concentrations in the atmosphere and oceans	- An increase in carbon concentrations in the atmosphere and in oceans (CC↑)	IPCC (2013)
Ocean temperature	- A rise in ocean temperature (OT↑)	IPCC (2013)
Run-off	- Higher annual mean run-off in some regions (RO↑)	IPCC (2013)
Near surface permafrost area	- Decrease in near surface permafrost area (PF↓)	IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2013)
Ocean surface pH	- Decrease in global ocean surface pH (PH↓)	IPCC (2013)
Fog	- Increase in the in-cloud liquid water content of marine fogs (F↑)	Kawai, Koshiro, Endo, Arakawa, & Hagihara (2016)
Water level in rivers	- Increased water level fluctuation for some rivers (WL↔)	Úbeda et al. (2013)

Figure 1. Changes in the global average surface temperature relative to 1986–2005 for the different emission scenarios (IPCC, 2013)

Figure 2. Method of risk identification

Table 2. Relevant climate change parameters and the affected risks. ^a.

	Climate-change parameter
	P↑	T↑	W↑	SLR	P↓	RH↓ & RH↑	PF↓	P↔	F↑	CC↑	SR↑	OT↑	PH↓	SF↑	S↑	HW↑	T↔	RO↑	W↓	WL↔	SS↑
Affected risks	D1	D1	G2	D2	D2	D1	G1	S2	A1	D1	D1	D2	D2	I3	E1	S1	I4	G1	O3	I9	D2
	D2	D2	G3	G1	G4	D2	G4	G4	A2	D2	I4	E1	E1	O1	E2	I4	I9
	S1	S1	I1	I7	G7	S2	G5	G7	A3
	G1	S2	I2	E1	E3	I8	G7	G8
	G2	G1	A1	E2	O3
	G3	G2	E3
	G4	G3	O2
	G5	G4
	G6	G5
	G7	G8
	I2	I4
	I5	I8
	I6	I9
	I7	A2
	I9	A3
	A2	A4
	A3	E3
	E1	O3
Σ	18	18	7	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1

a D1: accelerated degradation of superstructure, D2: accelerated degradation of substructure, S1: heat-induced damage to pavements and railways, S2: increased long-term deformations, G1: higher scour rates, G2: bridge slope failure, G3: landslides, G4: foundation settlement, G5: rockfalls; debris flows; and snow avalanches, G6: soil liquefaction, G7: additional loads on piles, G8: clay shrinkage and swelling, I1: higher wave impact, I2: wind-induced loads, I3: additional snow loads on covered bridges, I4: thermally induced stresses, I5: drainage capacity, I6: hydrostatic pressure behind abutments, I7: loads on bridges with control sluice gates, I8: loss of prestressing force, I9: ice-induced loads, A1:water vessel collisions, A2: vehicle-pier collisions, A3: vehicle accidents, A4: train-pier collisions, E1: floods, E2: storms, E3: wildfires, O1: snow removal costs, O2: temporary bridge restrictions, O3: power shortage; P↑, P↓: higher and lower precipitation in some regions, respectively, T↑: higher temperatures, W↑: more frequent/intense extreme winds, SLR: sea level rise, RH↑, RH↓: increase and decrease in relative humidity, respectively, PF↓: permafrost melt, P↔: increase in precipitation contrast, F↑: higher in-cloud liquid water content of marine fogs, CC↑: higher carbon concentrations, SR↑: higher solar radiation, OT↑: higher ocean temperature, PH↓: decrease in global ocean pH, SF↑: higher snowfall, S↑: increase in storms intensity/frequency, HW↑: increase in intensity/frequency of heatwaves, T↔: higher temperature seasonal contrast, RO↑: higher run-off, W↓: decrease in wind speeds, WL↔: increased water fluctuations in rivers, SS↑: higher soil salinity.

Figure 3. Identified climate-change risks on bridges and the climate changes affecting them. Inside to outside: risk group, identified risk, responsible climatic change parameters. Arrows connecting the different risks represent the discussed interdependencies.^b.

^bD1: accelerated degradation of superstructure, D2: accelerated degradation of substructure, S1: heat-induced damage to pavements and railways, S2: increased long-term deformations, G1: higher scour rates, G2: bridge slope failure, G3: landslides, G4: foundation settlement, G5: rockfalls; debris flows; and snow avalanches, G6: soil liquefaction, G7: additional loads on piles, G8: clay shrinkage and swelling, I1: higher wave impact, I2: wind-induced loads, I3: additional snow loads on covered bridges, I4: thermally induced stresses, I5: drainage capacity, I6: hydrostatic pressure behind abutments, I7: loads on bridges with control sluice gates, I8: loss of prestressing force, I9: ice-induced loads, A1:water vessel collisions, A2: vehicle-pier collisions, A3: vehicle accidents, A4: train-pier collisions, E1: floods, E2: storms, E3: wildfires, O1: snow removal costs, O2: temporary bridge restrictions, O3: power shortage; P↑, P↓: higher and lower precipitation in some regions, respectively, T↑: higher temperatures, W↑: more frequent/intense extreme winds, SLR: sea level rise, RH↑, RH↓: increase and decrease in relative humidity, respectively, PF↓: permafrost melt, P↔: increase in precipitation contrast, F↑: higher in-cloud liquid water content of marine fogs, CC↑: higher carbon concentrations, SR↑: higher solar radiation, OT↑: higher ocean temperature, PH↓: decrease in global ocean pH, SF↑: higher snowfall, S↑: increase in storms intensity/frequency, HW↑: increase in intensity/frequency of heatwaves, T↔: higher temperature seasonal contrast, RO↑: higher run-off, W↓: decrease in wind speeds, WL↔: increased water fluctuations in rivers, SS↑: higher soil salinity.

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