Multi-model probabilistic analysis of the lifecycle cost of buildings

ABSTRACT

Estimates of the environmental impacts of constructing and operating buildings are critical for improving the sustainability of construction. To identify the best design, a holistic approach is necessary, considering emissions, energy use, direct costs, potential earthquake costs, etc. Accordingly, this paper addresses a multitude of lifecycle impacts associated with the manufacturing, construction, operations, damage, and demolition of buildings. All impacts are translated into a common utility, measured in dollars. A collection of cost models is developed, and detailed building models are created from BIM, i.e., building information modelling. A comprehensive analysis is conducted for a six-story building. Results show that the steel material option results in the lowest construction cost. The wood option results in the lowest cost of emissions, while the concrete option contributes the most to climate change. Earthquake damage accounts for about 3% of the total expected cost, but the worst-case earthquake cost exceeds the building value.

KEYWORDS:

• Cost models
• probabilistic lifecycle analysis
• building information models
• object-oriented programming
• sustainability
• earthquake damage

Acknowledgments

The first author would like to thank the University of British Columbia for funding through the Four Year Doctoral Fellowship (4YF). This work was also supported by the second author’s Discovery Grant from the National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). The authors are also grateful for the ideas and insights obtained from discussions with former MASc students Gurvinder Gill and Seadon Chui.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Stevan Gavrilovic

Stevan Gavrilovic is a PhD Candidate at the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada. He has a BEng in Civil Engineering from the British Columbia Institute of Technology and an MASc degree in Civil Engineering from the University of British Columbia. His research interests include finite element analysis, development of computer programs, building lifecycle analysis, building information modelling, and reliability-based design optimization.

Terje Haukaas

Terje Haukaas is a professor at the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada. He received his MS and PhD degrees from the University of California at Berkeley in 1999 and 2003. Professor Haukaas conducts research on probabilistic modelling of a wide range of hazards, structures, and impacts, with particular emphasis on numerical simulation models. Software development is an integral part of his research. He developed the first version of the Matlab toolbox FERUM and he implemented the first reliability and sensitivity options in OpenSees. He later spearheaded the development of Rt and Rts, computer programs for multi-hazard and multi-model reliability and optimization analysis.