Flexibility and real options analysis in power system generation expansion planning under uncertainty

Figures & data

Table 1. Generator setup results from SAA for Case 4.

Year	1	2	3	4	5
Fixed	14 Wind, 1 IGCC	25 Wind	3 Wind	33 Wind	1 IGCC
Threshold	–	0.13 for IGCC	0.84 for Wind	1.00 for Wind	–
Options	–	–	–	–	3 Wind
Year	6	7	8	9	10
Fixed	2 Wind, 1 IGCC	1 IGCC	–	–	–
Threshold	–	–	0.77 for Wind	–	–
Options	11 Wind	1 IGCC	146 Wind	1 Wind	–

Table 2 Summary of results for EVoF and EVPI.

Case	Description	EVoF ($, billions)	EVPI ($, billions)
1	Deterministic	N/A	N/A
2	Benchmark Inflexible	0.0	45.6
3	FlexiblePerfect Information	45.6	0.0
4	Flexible, Conditional-go	0.3	45.3
5	Flexible, Finite Adaptability	1.3	44.3
6	Flexible, No Decision Rule	41.8	3.8