Neoclassical realism and Italy’s military behaviour, 1946–2010: a combined dyad/nation analysis

Figures & data

Figure 1. A neoclassical realist explanation of foreign policy decisions. Source: Ripsman, Taliaferro, and Lobell (2016, 31).

Table 1. Conditional probabilities of Italy’s involvement in MIDs by NcR variables, 1946–2010.

	MID (exp. MID)	Dyad	pr(MID)^+	Z
		Population
	36	9,283	3.88
		Relative power (RP)
High Medium Low	11 (5.6) 20 (26.4) 5 (4.0)	1,501 6,781 1,001	7.33 2.95 5.00	2,15** −1.23 .57
		Elite instability (EI)
High Medium Low	4 (7.0) 15 (20.0) 17 (9.0)	1,773 5,184 2,326	2.26 2.89 7.31	−1.10 −1.14 2,66***
		Regime vulnerability (RV)
High Medium Low	6 (12.0) 9 (11.4) 21 (12.6)	3,096 2,941 3,246	1.94 3.06 6.47	−1.74** −.71 2.38***
		Elite consensus (EC)
High Medium Low	26 (15.1) 3 (7.6) 7 (13.3)	3,885 1,962 3,436	6.69 1.53 2.04	2.82*** −1.67** −1.74**
		Extraction capacity (ExC)^++
High Medium Low	6 (5.5) 16 (16.8) 4 (3.7)	1,127 3,468 771	5.32 4.61 5.19	.23 −.20 .14

*p < .1, **p < .05, ***p < .01(one-tailed test).

⁺To facilitate reading, probabilities have been multiplied by 1,000.

⁺⁺Period: 1981–2010; number of dyads 5,366; number of MIDs 26; pr(Mid) 4.85.

Table 2. Logit model: Italy’s involvement in MIDs, 1946–2010.

	Model I	Model II	Model III
RP	.935** (.540)	1.099* (.737)	.827* .(565)
EI	.320 (.520)	.254 (.555)	.396 (.541)
RV	−1.291*** (.465)	−1.397*** (.576)	−1.138** (.516)
EC	.798* (.494)	.823** (.499)	.713* (.513)
CW	–	.263 (.800)	–
WoT	–	–	.384 (.544)
Costant	−13.107*** (1.489)	−13.298*** (1.591)	−13.185*** (1.495)
Observations Log Likelihood Akaike Inf. Crit. Bayesian Inf. Crit.	9,283 −144.716 301.431 344.247	9,283 −144.661 303.323 353.274	9,283 −144.461 302.922 352.873

*p < .1, **p < .05, ***p < .01 (one-tailed test), standard error in parenthesis.

Table 3. Determinants of Italy’s military behaviour: predicted probability of involvement in MIDs.

Variables	Predicted probabilities	Delta (%)
RP
Low relative power (0)	0.0012
High relative power (1)	0.0032	0.0020 (+60%)
RP (1) & EI
Low elite instability (0)	0.0032
High elite instability (1)	0.0044	0.0011 (+27%)
RP (1) & RV
Low regime vulnerability (0)	0.0115
High regime vulnerability (1)	0.0032	−0.0083 (−259%)
RP (1) & EC
Low elite consensus (0)	0.0014
High elite consensus (1)	0.0032	0.0018 (+56%)

Ripsman, N. M., J. W. Taliaferro, and S. E. Lobell. 2016. Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics. New York: Oxford University Press.

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