A new Iberian exceptionalism? Comparing the populist radical right electorate in Portugal and Spain

Figures & data

Figure 1. Probability to vote (PTV) for VOX and Chega in 2019 (authors own online survey, wave 2).

Figure 2. Sociodemographic factors (H1).

Linear regression coefficients (PTV) and odds ratios from logistic regression (vote recall). Full models in Table A1 and A2 in the Appendix. Data: authors own online survey, wave 2.

Figure 3. Political dissatisfaction (H2).

Linear regression coefficients (PTV) and odds ratios from logistic regression (vote recall). All models additionally control for gender, age, education, religion and rural vs. urban. Full models in Table A1 and A2 in the Appendix. Data: authors own online survey, wave 2.

Figure 4. Globalization losers (H3).

Linear regression coefficients (PTV) and odds ratios from logistic regression (vote recall). All models additionally control for gender, age, education, religion and rural vs. urban. Full models in Table A1 and A2 in the Appendix. Data: authors own online survey, wave 2.

Figure 5. Media diet (H4).

Linear regression coefficients (PTV) and odds ratios from logistic regression (vote recall). All models additionally control for gender, age, education, religion and rural vs. urban. Full models in Table A1 and A2 in the Appendix. Data: authors own online survey, wave 2.

Figure 6. Country-specific issues (H5).

Linear regression coefficients (PTV) and odds ratios from logistic regression (vote recall). All models additionally control for gender, age, education, religion and rural vs. urban. Full models in Table A1 and A2 in the Appendix. Data: authors own online survey, wave 2.

Table A1. Explaining the probability to vote for VOX and Chega (full models to figures 2–6, left panel).

DV: PTV	Model 1 VOX	Model 1 Chega	Model 2 VOX	Model 2 Chega	Model 3 VOX	Model 3 Chega	Model 4 VOX	Model 4 Chega	Model 5 VOX	Model 5 Chega
Gender (male)	0.0757***	0.0218	0.0409***	0.0291^+	0.0255*	0.0264	0.0543***	0.0285	0.0604***	0.0256
	(6.88)	(1.26)	(4.41)	(1.65)	(2.13)	(1.41)	(4.89)	(1.64)	(4.73)	(1.27)
Age (young)	0.0650*	0.187***	0.0577*	0.169***	0.0616*	0.174***	0.0994***	0.138**	0.0602^+	0.173***
	(2.28)	(4.53)	(2.37)	(3.92)	(2.02)	(3.73)	(3.39)	(3.21)	(1.76)	(3.56)
Education (low)	0.0925**	0.102*	0.131***	0.0910*	0.0554^+	0.0643	0.0862**	0.0848^+	0.0478	0.121*
	(3.17)	(2.35)	(5.38)	(2.02)	(1.68)	(1.28)	(2.92)	(1.92)	(1.42)	(2.41)
Religious	0.235***	0.126***	0.0505**	0.107***	0.112***	0.119***	0.157***	0.116***	0.249***	0.120***
	(12.82)	(4.34)	(2.98)	(3.46)	(5.55)	(3.58)	(8.20)	(3.93)	(11.82)	(3.56)
Rural area	−0.00473	0.0762***	−0.00410	0.0597*	−0.00743	0.0687**	−0.00346	0.0806***	−0.00109	0.0659*
	(−0.30)	(3.34)	(−0.31)	(2.54)	(−0.45)	(2.77)	(−0.22)	(3.49)	(−0.06)	(2.49)
Ideology (right)			0.444***	0.215***
			(20.35)	(5.93)
Gov. performance bad			0.314***	0.0987*
			(14.46)	(2.12)
Previous gov. perf. bad			−0.110***
			(−4.89)
Dissat. with democracy			0.0565**	0.116**
			(3.16)	(3.23)
Corruption parties			0.0268	0.0160
			(1.07)	(0.45)
Low household income					−0.0496*	−0.0202
					(−2.39)	(−0.54)
No assets					−0.0701**	0.00874
					(−2.72)	(0.22)
Economic sit. got worse					0.234***	0.153**
					(7.79)	(2.80)
Pers. econ. sit. got worse					−0.0262	−0.0152
					(−0.90)	(−0.29)
Anti-globalization					0.0577*	0.109*
					(2.30)	(2.53)
Anti-immigration					0.183***	0.154***
					(8.77)	(4.90)
Anti-feminism					0.238***	0.0303
					(11.41)	(1.09)
Against Catalan autonomy							0.0949***
							(7.16)
More centralized state							0.288***
							(13.89)
Privatize national health								0.116***
								(3.93)
Reduce public services								0.106**
								(3.14)
Political inform.: forums									0.0890***	0.0618
									(3.46)	(1.27)
Political inform.: facebook									0.0393*	0.100***
									(2.00)	(3.66)
Political inform.: twitter									−0.0414*	0.00301
									(−1.97)	(0.07)
Newspaper pref.: tabloid									0.104***	0.0756**
									(3.32)	(3.12)
Constant	−0.0427	−0.0261	−0.289***	−0.207***	−0.193***	−0.182**	−0.233***	−0.0714	−0.0377	−0.0834
	(−1.38)	(−0.59)	(−7.85)	(−3.73)	(−5.21)	(−3.30)	(−7.13)	(−1.57)	(−1.06)	(−1.64)
Observations	2847	1355	2543	1197	1951	1114	2433	1306	2030	994
R^2	0.070	0.041	0.443	0.116	0.305	0.094	0.222	0.062	0.095	0.083

Linear regression models, t statistics in parentheses. ⁺ p < 0.10, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001. Data: authors own online survey, wave 2.

Table A2. Explaining the vote choice for VOX and Chega (full models to figures 2–6, right panel).

DV: Vote recall	Model 1 VOX	Model 1 Chega	Model 2 VOX	Model 2 Chega	Model 3 VOX	Model 3 Chega	Model 4 VOX	Model 4 Chega	Model 5 VOX	Model 5 Chega
Gender (male)	1.785***	2.518**	1.743**	2.556*	1.289	3.059**	1.560**	2.597**	1.414*	2.577*
	(4.17)	(2.70)	(3.02)	(2.53)	(1.27)	(2.68)	(2.81)	(2.71)	(2.04)	(2.40)
Age (young)	3.261***	4.130^+	2.972*	3.536	3.802**	4.719	6.280***	3.703^+	2.784*	4.301^+
	(3.39)	(1.90)	(2.36)	(1.54)	(2.65)	(1.59)	(4.33)	(1.65)	(2.33)	(1.74)
Education (low)	6.284***	3.484	7.184***	3.876	4.184*	1.542	6.435***	2.627	4.195**	4.509
	(4.66)	(1.41)	(3.88)	(1.46)	(2.47)	(0.40)	(4.23)	(1.10)	(2.99)	(1.46)
Religious	5.086***	1.552	1.227	1.115	2.079*	1.357	3.770***	1.614	5.503***	1.277
	(7.19)	(0.83)	(0.64)	(0.18)	(2.29)	(0.46)	(4.89)	(0.88)	(6.24)	(0.41)
Rural area	0.873	1.449	0.717	1.159	0.685	1.220	0.760	1.319	0.826	1.315
	(−0.69)	(0.93)	(−1.29)	(0.35)	(−1.41)	(0.41)	(−1.21)	(0.68)	(−0.79)	(0.59)
Ideology (right)			127.8***	7.386**
			(10.47)	(2.90)
Gov. performance bad			48.92***	1.547
			(9.40)	(0.54)
Previous gov. perf. bad			1.320
			(0.69)
Dissat. with democracy			3.694***	4.519*
			(3.75)	(2.29)
Corruption parties			2.497^+	2.376
			(1.76)	(1.18)
Low household income					0.967	0.277
					(−0.10)	(−1.62)
No assets					0.484^+	4.526^+
					(−1.77)	(1.82)
Economic sit. got worse					21.28***	7.111*
					(6.50)	(2.00)
Pers. econ. sit. got worse					0.646	1.410
					(−0.92)	(0.34)
Anti-globalization					3.315**	1.943
					(2.99)	(0.85)
Anti-immigration					11.23***	10.08**
					(5.05)	(2.97)
Anti-feminism					9.954***	0.880
					(6.77)	(−0.24)
Against Catalan autonomy							3.102***
							(4.76)
More centralized state							44.73***
							(10.12)
Privatize national health								1.633
								(0.95)
Reduce public services								3.512*
								(2.03)
Political inform.: forums									1.774^+	1.100
									(1.93)	(0.13)
Political inform.: facebook									1.971**	6.315***
									(2.75)	(3.50)
Political inform.: twitter									0.707	0.428
									(−1.27)	(−1.25)
Newspaper pref.: tabloid									2.431**	0.800
									(3.14)	(−0.51)
Observations	2243	987	2113	900	1627	807	1971	952	1674	731
Pseudo R^2	0.056	0.039	0.429	0.121	0.327	0.153	0.231	0.057	0.082	0.089

Logistic regression models, coefficients are odds ratios; t statistics in parentheses. ⁺ p < 0.10, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001. Data: authors own online survey, wave 2.