Does regionalization promote regionalism? Evidence from East Asia

Figures & data

Figure 1. Number of PTAs since 1948 (Source: WTO)¹²

Figure 2. FTAs under article XXIV of GATT (year of entry in force) (Source: WTO).

Figure 3. FTAs under the enabling clause (year of entry in force) (Source: WTO).

Figure 4. EIAs under article V of GATS (Source: WTO).

Figure 5. Kaplan–Meier survival curves for FTAs under Article XXIV of GATT.

Figure 6. Kaplan–Meier survival curves for FTAs under the enabling clause.

Figure 7. Kaplan–Meier curves for EIAs under Article V of GATS.

Table 1. Top trading partners for East Asian countries.

	1985–1989	1990–1994	1995–1999	2000–2004	2005–2009	2010–2014	2015–2018
Australia	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	China	China	China
Brunei	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan
Cambodia	Japan	Singapore	Thailand	Thailand	China	China	China
China	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan
India	Japan	Japan	Japan	China	China	China	China
Indonesia	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	China	China
Japan	Korea	Korea	China	China	China	China	China
Korea	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	China	China	China
Lao PDR	Thailand	Thailand	Thailand	Thailand	Thailand	Thailand	Thailand
Malaysia	Japan	Japan	Japan	Singapore	Singapore	China	China
Myanmar	Japan	China	Singapore	Thailand	Thailand	China	China
New Zealand	Australia	Australia	Australia	Australia	Australia	Australia	China
Philippines	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	China
Singapore	Japan	Malaysia	Malaysia	Malaysia	Malaysia	Malaysia	China
Thailand	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	China
Vietnam	Japan	Singapore	Japan	Japan	China	China	China

Table 2. Top FDI (stock of inward) partners for East Asian countries.

	1985–1989	1990–1994	1995–1999	2000–2004	2005–2009	2010–2014	2015–2018
Australia	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan
Brunei	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Cambodia	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
China	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan
India	N/A	Japan	Japan	Japan	Singapore	Singapore	Singapore
Indonesia	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Singapore
Japan	N/A	Singapore	Singapore	Singapore	Singapore	Singapore	Singapore
Korea	N/A	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan
Lao PDR	N/A	N/A	N/A	China	Thailand	Vietnam	Vietnam
Malaysia	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan
Myanmar	Thailand	Thailand	Singapore	Singapore	Thailand	China	China
New Zealand	N/A	Australia	Australia	Australia	Australia	Australia	Australia
Philippines	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan
Singapore	N/A	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan
Thailand	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan	Japan
Vietnam	N/A	N/A	Singapore	Singapore	Korea	Japan	Korea

Table 3. Descriptive statistics for the variables.

Variable	Observation	Mean	Standard Deviation	Minimum	Maximum
YEAR	4,200	2002	10.10071	1985	2019
Dependent variables
FTA (GATT 24)	3,664	0.0144651	0.1194141	0	1
FTA (Enabling Clause)	2,725	.027156	.1625676	0	1
EIA	3,552	0.0191441	0.1370508	0	1
Independent variable
lnTRADE	3,913	6.890236	3.358427	−4.60517	13.4407
lnTRADEshare	3,927	−3.715606	2.197268	−19.05859	−0.47601
lnFDI	2,834	5.238647	3.252433	−6.700116	19.26667
Dispute	4,200	.2140476	.4102088	0	1
lnDIST	4,200	8.035014	0.7953646	5.754296	9.454152
JDEMO	3,423	0.1814198	0.3854219	0	1
lnDIFGDP	3,960	26.68882	1.829176	18.99626	30.00945
World PTA	4,200	129.2857	98.76009	18	300
World EIA	4,200	48.54286	57.02525	0	161

Table 4. Statistical results of survival analysis (Cox proportional hazards model).

Dependent variable: GATT 24 FTA	Model 1–1 (t-3)	Model 1–2 (t-4)	Model 1–3 (t-5)	Model 1–4 (t-3)	Model 1–5 (t-4)	Model 1–6 (t-5)
lnTRADE	−0.001	0.000	−0.001
	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)
lnTRADEshare				0.001	0.002	0.001
				(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.003)
lnFDI	0.007***	0.007***	0.009***	0.007***	0.007***	0.009***
	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.003)
DISPUTE	−0.058**	−0.059**	−0.064**	−0.058**	−0.058**	−0.063**
	(0.028)	(0.027)	(0.028)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.027)
JDEMO	−0.015	−0.015	−0.015	−0.015	−0.013	−0.013
	(0.014)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.015)
lnDIST	1.296***	1.273***	1.227***	1.309***	1.293***	1.241***
	(0.263)	(0.269)	(0.275)	(0.271)	(0.278)	(0.283)
lnDIFGDP	0.003	0.003	0.004	0.003	0.004	0.005
	(0.004)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.005)
World PTA	0.000	0.000	0.001	−0.000	0.000	0.002
	-	-	-	-	-	-
Log likelihood	−154.128	−153.699	−152.101	−154.256	−153.668	−152.223
Pseudo-R-squared	0.143	0.143	0.150	0.144	0.145	0.151
N	2072	1978	1882	2080	1986	1890

Note: Cluster-robust standard errors (clustering on dyads) in parentheses. Statistical significance is indicated as follows: * p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01

Table 5. Statistical results of Survival Analysis (Cox proportional hazards model).

Dependent variable: Enabling Clause FTA	Model 2–1 (t-3)	Model 2–2 (t-4)	Model 2–3 (t-5)	Model 2–4 (t-3)	Model 2–5 (t-4)	Model 2–6 (t-5)
lnTRADE	0.004	0.004	0.002
	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.003)
lnTRADEshare				0.005	0.005	0.004
				(0.004)	(0.005)	(0.004)
lnFDI	−0.005*	−0.007**	−0.005**	−0.005*	−0.007**	−0.006**
	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.003)	(0.002)
DISPUTE	−0.063	−0.052	−0.047	−0.061	−0.051	−0.046
	(0.038)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.038)	(0.034)	(0.034)
JDEMO	−0.040*	−0.039*	−0.029*	−0.040*	−0.039*	−0.030*
	(0.020)	(0.021)	(0.017)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.017)
lnDIST	−1.638***	−1.618***	−1.495***	−1.617***	−1.616***	−1.485***
	(0.214)	(0.213)	(0.218)	(0.216)	(0.213)	(0.219)
lnDIFGDP	−0.004	−0.003	−0.005	−0.005	−0.005	−0.005
	(0.006)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.006)	(0.005)	(0.005)
World PTA	0.001	0.012	0.001	−0.002	0.000	0.001
	-	-	-	-	-	-
Log likelihood	−121.244	−118.920	−115.617	−121.633	−119.258	−115.624
Pseudo-R-squared	0.170	0.178	0.165	0.168	0.175	0.165
N	1475	1400	1324	1475	1400	1324

Note: Cluster-robust standard errors (clustering on dyads) in parentheses. Statistical significance is indicated as follows: * p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01

Table 6. Statistical results of survival analysis (Cox proportional hazards model).

Dependent variable: EIA	Model 3–1 (t-3)	Model 3–2 (t-4)	Model 3–3 (t-5)	Model 3–4 (t-3)	Model 3–5 (t-4)	Model 3–6 (t-5)
lnTRADE	0.003	0.003	0.002
	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)
lnTRADEshare				0.004	0.005	0.003
				(0.004)	(0.003)	(0.003)
lnFDI	0.006***	0.007***	0.007***	0.006***	0.007***	0.007***
	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)
DISPUTE	−0.028	−0.030*	−0.031*	−0.029	−0.031*	−0.031*
	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)
JDEMO	−0.010	−0.004	−0.010	−0.010	−0.004	−0.010
	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.015)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)
lnDIST	0.760***	0.700***	0.724***	0.805***	0.752***	0.761***
	(0.257)	(0.258)	(0.251)	(0.254)	(0.254)	(0.248)
lnDIFGDP	0.012**	0.013***	0.013***	0.012**	0.013***	0.012***
	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)	(0.005)
World EIA	0.000	0.005	0.000	−0.000	−0.002	0.000
	-	-	-	-	-	(0.001)
Log likelihood	−199.263	−198.353	−197.295	−199.462	−198.409	−197.515
Pseudo-R-squared	0.115	0.117	0.119	0.116	0.119	0.121
N	1947	1854	1758	1955	1862	1766

Note: Cluster-robust standard errors (clustering on dyads) in parentheses. Statistical significance is indicated as follows: * p < 0.1, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01