Korean Peninsula Nuclear Issue: Challenges and Prospects

Figures & data

Table 1. Potential DPRK motivations for acquiring nuclear weapons

Security	The most likely adversary being a nuclear-weapon state; complex relations with/between allies; rejection of alliances; need for deterrence against neighboring states
Status and prestige	Being seen as “a nuclear power in the East”
Domestic factors (policy, ideology)	Justification for economic problems; making nuclear-weapon status part of the Constitution
Technological progress	Mastering the technologies required for militarization of the nuclear program
Foreign-policy factors	Aspiration to neutrality; political independence; need for an instrument of deterrence vs. major powers; pursuit of foreign-policy goals
Economic considerations	Emphasis on nuclear weapons as the most economically sensible instrument of deterrence

Table 2. Denuclearization as seen by the DPRK (KCNA 2016a; Song 2018)

US Actions	DPRK Actions
Firstly, all the nuclear weapons should be opened to public, first of all, which the United States has neither acknowledged nor denied after bringing them to the ROK.	The DPRK will also take steps in response to it, and a decisive breakthrough will be made in realizing the denuclearization on the Korean peninsula.
Secondly, all the nukes and their bases should be dismantled and verified in the eyes of the world public.
Thirdly, the United States should ensure that it would never bring again the nuclear strike means to the ROK, which the United States has frequently deployed on the Korean peninsula and in its vicinity.
Fourthly, it should commit itself to neither intimidating the DPRK with nukes or through an act of nuclear war nor using nukes against the DPRK in any case.
Fifthly, the withdrawal of the US troops holding the right to use nukes from the ROK should be declared.

Table 3. Conditional, reciprocal, incremental denuclearization

DPRK Actions	US Actions
- Ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and elimination of all nuclear weapons test facilities;	Conditional, reciprocal, and synchronized US steps including phased sanctions relief, a declaration of intent to end the Korean War, and a permanent peace treaty.
- A halt to the production of nuclear weapons;- Disablement and then destruction of all production facilities;
- An end to all nuclear design and research activity in this area, with a particular focus on the North’s ICBM program;
- The end of production of weapons-grade fissile materials, closure and eventual dismantlement of certain facilities; and limitation and reduction of nuclear charges.

Table 4. DPRK government statements and speeches touching on economic topics

Criteria	Mentions
	2016 (KCNA 2016)	2019 (KCNA 2019)	2020 (KCNA 2020)	2021 (KCNA 2021)
Economic development	Economy – 142Prosperity – 24	Economy – 42Prosperity – 8	Economy, economic – 58Prosperity – 6	Economy, economic – 92Prosperity – 6
Independence	Independence – 130Juche – 110Sovereignty – 22Self-reliance – 14	Independence – 18Self-reliance – 10Juche – 10Sovereignty – 4	Self-reliance – 18Sovereignty – 6Juche – 4	Independence – 16Juche – 8Self-reliance – 8Sovereignty – 4
Security issues	Security – 22Peace, peaceful – 36War – 30Hostile, hostility – 15	Peace – 17Hostile, hostility – 15Threat – 3Security – 3	Hostile, hostility – 13Security – 8Threat – 6Peace – 2	Security – 4Peace, peaceful – 10War – 7Hostile, hostility – 14Threat – 11
Military might	Power, powerful – 170Military – 68Defense – 33Nuclear – 30Strength – 28	Defense – 8Military – 6Powerful – 6Strength – 6Nuclear – 3	Power, powerful – 16Forces – 14Strength – 15Nuclear – 11Weapon – 8	Power, powerful – 50Military – 19Defense – 26Nuclear – 35Strength – 31Forces – 42Weapon – 19

KCNA. 2016a. “DPRK Government Denounces U.S., S. Korea’s Sophism about “Denuclearization of North”, KCNA Watch, Accessed 6 July 2016. https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1546383733-821103229/dprk-government-denounces-u-s-s-koreas-sophism-about-denuclearization-of-north/

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KCNA. 2016b. “Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un’s Report to the Seventh Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea on the Work of the Central Committee (Full Text),” KCNA, Accessed 20 June 2016.

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KCNA. 2019. “Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un’s Policy Speech,” KCNA, Accessed 14 April 2019.

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KCNA. 2021. “Great Programme for Struggle Leading Korean-style Socialist Construction to Fresh Victory. On Report Made by Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un at Eighth Congress of WPK,” KCNA, Accessed 9 January 2021.

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