Immigration and crime: a time-trend analysis of self-reported crime in Sweden, 1999–2017

Figures & data

Table 1. Proportion (per cent) of youths reporting that they have engaged in different types of offences over the past 12 months, by immigrant status (1999–2017).

	1999	2001	2003	2005	2008	2011	2015	2017
By immigrant status
Swedish parents
Total	63.1	59.8	58.6	56.3	58.4	50.5	42.7	42.4
Theft	57.8	53.4	53.5	50.8	52.9	45.5	39.1	39.3
Criminal damage	35.9	34.2	31.2	29.3	30.9	24.3	16.6	16.9
Violence	17.3	15.6	16.1	13.9	12.9	9.9	9.7	10.1
One immigrant parent
Total	66.5	65.3	66.8	61.8	64.6	54.7	49.7	49.4
Theft	60.3	60.1	62.4	56.1	59.1	50.2	46.2	45.1
Criminal damage	42.2	39.5	39.2	35.1	38.7	27.0	22.8	24.1
Violence	22.6	21.9	23.7	19.0	19.4	13.0	12.4	13.7
Two immigrant parents
Total	65.0	66.2	64.7	59.0	62.5	44.8	42.9	39.1
Theft	61.0	58.5	55.5	53.1	53.8	37.5	36.8	35.0
Criminal damage	37.6	40.5	40.6	37.9	37.3	26.8	23.4	20.4
Violence	26.4	31.5	28.1	20.6	23.5	16.8	15.9	14.1
Born abroad
Total	62.3	60.1	58.6	59.1	61.9	43.6	32.5	33.5
Theft	54.8	53.2	49.7	50.2	55.4	35.6	26.7	28.0
Criminal damage	35.5	37.7	36.1	32.3	30.9	26.6	14.7	15.8
Violence	24.0	27.5	26.5	22.1	21.9	12.6	11.8	10.3

Table 2. Proportion (per cent) of youths reporting that they have engaged in different types of offences over the past 12 months, by region of origin (1999–2011).

		1999	2001	2003	2005	2008	2011
By region of origin
Sweden
Total		63.6	60.8	60.0	57.0	59.4	50.6
Theft		58.2	54.4	54.6	51.6	53.6	45.4
Criminal damage		36.8	35.2	32.7	30.4	32.2	25.0
Violence		18.5	17.2	17.8	14.9	14.6	10.9
Western countries
Total		67.6	61.3	56.8	60.7	73.0	53.8
Theft		64.3	56.1	56.5	50.8	66.7	50.8
Criminal damage		31.3	39.1	37.1	30.6	44.0	27.5
Violence		18.1	25.3	28.9	30.6	26.0	11.1
Other European countries
Total		64.9	62.9	53.6	60.5	63.2	42.9
Theft		54.9	53.8	42.8	52.9	61.8	35.9
Criminal damage		32.8	36.9	34.8	29.8	33.3	24.6
Violence		27.6	28.6	25.0	19.4	23.3	4.7
Non-European countries
Total		62.9	59.4	61.2	59.1	57.9	44.5
Theft		57.0	52.8	54.1	51.1	50.9	36.8
Criminal damage		39.0	35.4	35.0	32.3	28.1	22.8
Violence		25.2	24.7	23.4	21.2	17.4	13.9

Table 3. Average percentage change in self-reported offending, as estimated by negative binomial regression, for each 2.5 year increase in time, by immigrant status (1999–2017), and region of origin (1999–2011).

	Total		Boys		Girls
	% Change	95% CI	% Change	95% CI	% Change	95% CI
Analysis 1. Time trends
Immigrant status, 1999-2017
Swedish parents	−9.6***	(−10.2, −9.1)	−11.1***	(−11.8, −10.3)	−7.4***	(−8.2, −6.5)
One immigrant parent	−9.1***	(−10.6, −.7.6)	−11.0***	(−13.0, −.9.9)	−7.3***	(−9.5, −5.0)
Two immigrant parents	−11.0***	(−12.8, −15.1)	−10.6***	(−13.1,-10.1)	−10.9***	(−13.5,-8.2)
Born abroad	−15.1***	(−16.8, −13.5)	−19.6***	(−21.7, −17.3)	−10.2***	(−12.9, −7.5)
Region of origin, 1999-2011
Born in Sweden	−7.0***	(−7.7, −6.3)	−8.5***	(−9.4, −7.5)	−4.3***	(−5.3, −3.2)
Western countries	−6.2*	(−11.7, −0.3.)	−8.0	(−15.9, 0.6)	−0.2	(−8.4, 8.7)
Other European countries	−9.2***	(−14.2, −3.9)	−13.9***	(−20.5, −6.6)	−4.5	(−12.0. 3.5)
Non-European countries	−10.0***	(−13.1, −6.9)	−9.6***	(−13.8, −5.2)	−9.7***	(−14.2, −4.9)
Analysis 2. Time by immigrant status (reference group: native Swedes)
One immigrant parent	0.6	(−1.2, 2.4)	0.1	(−2.3, 2.6)	0.1	(−2.5, 2.1)
Two immigrant parents	−1.5	(−3.6, 6.0)	0.5	(−2.3, 3.5)	−3.8*	(−6.7,-0.8)
Born abroad	−6.1***	(−8.0, −4.1)	−9.5***	(−12.9, −6.1)	−3.1	(−6.1, 0.0)
Analysis 3. Time by Region of origin (reference group: youth born in Sweden)
Western countries	0.8	(−5.2, 7.3)	0.5	(−8.2, 9.9)	4.2	(−4.4, 13.6)
Other European countries	−2.3	(−7.7, 3.4)	−5.9	(−13.2, 2.1)	−0.3	(−8.1, 9.2)
Non-European countries	−3.3	(−6.6, 0.2)	−1.2	(−5.9, 3.7)	−5.6*	(−10.5, −0.5)

The first section presents an analysis of linear trends, here presented as the average percentage change in self-reported offending for each 2.5 year increase in time, for each and every immigrant category, and separately for boys and girls. The second section presents percentual differences in the rate of change by immigrant staus. The third section presents percentual differences in the rate of change by region of origin.

*P ≤ .05; **P ≤ .01; ***P ≤ .001.