Engaging with the future: framings of adaptation to climate change in conservation

Figures & data

Figure 1. Flow diagram showing the stages of the systematic review process.

Figure 2. Analytical framework for adaptation concepts. The first domain (left) represents individuals’ cognitive capacity to understand temporal characteristics of social-ecological processes and ability to respond to change and influence future events. This domain shapes the social, collective ways of understanding the system (right), its elements, boundaries, and the level of concern towards others. Openness to alternatives (center) or the individual and collective capacity to critically think about current options to deal with change helps to connect these domains. Based on Ahvenharju et al. (2018) and Feola (2015)

Table 1. Summary of concepts used in the analyses, explaining the ontological basis, epistemological approach, and theoretical perspective assigned to grouped themes from the adaptation concepts. Adapted from Moon and Blackman (2014, p. 1169)

	Elements	Definition
Ontology (‘what is’ the nature of reality to be explained)	Realism	One reality exist. Reality can be explained through appropriate methods (naïve realism). Defining reality remains uncertain because the structures affecting reality can change (structural realism). Understanding nature requires critical examination (critical realism).
	Relativism	Multiple realities exist. Reality has a unique construction in people’s mind (relativism), or is constructed and shared by a group, but multiple realities are constructed across groups (bounded relativism).
Epistemology (Knowledge choices used to understand the world)	Objectivism	Knowledge is created by observing and documenting reality
	Subjectivism	Knowledge is influenced by people’s interpretations of reality
	Constructivism	Knowledge is created through people’s interactions with reality
Theoretical perspective (Systems of values guiding action)	Positivism	Knowledge from natural science methods can be applied to predict the social world
	Structuralism	Knowledge comes from understanding formal structures, ideas, and concepts in use, and can be applied to predict all aspects of human culture
	Critical theory	Question and challenge existing truths
	Feminism	Understanding power relations and behaviours to enable change
	Post-structuralism	Deconstruct language and discourses in use to understand a problem and its causes
	Pragmatism	Any method should be used to understand a problem

Table 2. Examples of definitions extracted from the articles containing definitions of adaptation and the emergent themes and clusters extracted from the definition. Clusters follow Full set in Appendix A

Citation	Definition	Emergent themes	Clusters
Groves et al. (2012)	‘Climate change adaptation refers to the adjustment of natural or anthropogenic systems to a changing climate for the purpose of moderating impacts or capitalizing on novel opportunities (IPCC 2007). We argue that integrating adaptation into systematic conservation planning is imperative … ’.; ‘we describe five explicit adaptation approaches that can be incorporated into regional scale conservation plans, trade-offs involved in their application, assumptions implicit in their use and additional data that may be required for their implementation: (1) conserving the geophysical stage, (2) protecting climatic refugia, (3) enhancing regional connectivity, (4) sustaining ecosystem process and function and (5) capitalizing on conservation opportunities emerging in response to climate change (e.g. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation [REDD])’.	Adjustments in natural systems Adjustments in human systems Identify and exploit opportunities Conserve geophysical stage Protect climate refugia Corridors and connectivity Maintain ecosystems processes and functions Mitigation n = 8	Anticipating Learning and understanding Opportunities
			Ecosystems Caring for nature
			Nature by itself
			n = 6
Lukasiewicz et al. (2016)	‘Climate change adaptation refers to the actions that people take in response to projected or actual climate change’ (Parry et al. 2007; p.27). A related but as yet lesser known concept is that of ‘maladaptation’, which refers to actions that seek to avoid or reduce vulnerability to climate change, but end up increasing it in other systems, sectors or social groups (Barnett and O’Neill 2010); ‘Our research drew on an ecosystem-based approach to climate change adaptation which advocates strategies that improve environmental health as a way of ameliorating climate change impacts’ (The World Bank 2009). Such strategies include the use of protected areas (Dudley et al. 2010), protection, maintenance and restoration of resilient, connected ecosystems (Cottingham et al. 2005) and conservation of biodiversity ‘hotspots’ (Catford et al. 2012).”	Human actions in response to climate change Avoid maladaptation Ecosystem-based adaptation Improve environmental health to reduce impacts Protected areas Resilient, connected ecosystems Protect biodiversity hotspots n = 7	Anticipating
			Managing nature Ecosystems Caring for nature
			Resilience
			n = 5

Table 3. Emerging clusters (grouped themes) of adaptation in biodiversity conservation. Each concept was analysed to establish the scholarly tradition, concepts, and theories informing adaptation (ST), ontological basis (OB), epistemological approach (EA), and theoretical perspective (TP); OB, EA, and TP follows Moon and Blackman (2014)

Grouped theme	Description	References	Scholarly tradition, onto-epistemological & theoretical basis
Nature by Itself	Adaptation linked with evolutionary & autonomous adaptation, indicating natural processes that lack conscious or directed actions & responses: species & ecosystems have intrinsic capacity to adapt to change. Conservation thinking before the 1960s was broadly of the ‘nature for itself’ type, which prioritizes wilderness and intact natural habitats, generally without people and has scientific underpinnings from wildlife ecology, natural history and theoretical ecology	Metzger et al. (2006); Mace (2014)	ST: Biological/evolutionary sciences OB: Naïve realism EA: Objectivism TP: Positivist
Caring for Nature	‘Caring is not only an attitude of concern for the well-being of another, but also … a practice that seeks to tend to another’s needs’. Empathy as a driver for conserving nature (feelings of connectedness, grieving loss of ecosystems/species) and ‘the constituting role of (re)productive activities and “sustaining services”’. Nature conservation is mobilized by human agency, where humans are care-givers’ & ‘care-receivers ‘. The practice of care can occur on a ‘non-interference’ vs. ‘manipulating interventions’ gradient.	Jax et al. (2018)	ST: Feminist philosophy OB: Structural realism EA: Subjectivism TP: Feminism & post-structuralism
Ecosystems	‘Ecosystem-based adaptation uses biodiversity and ecosystem services in an overall adaptation strategy. It includes the sustainable management, conservation and restoration of ecosystems to provide services that help people adapt to the adverse effects of climate change’. EbA ‘may require managing ecosystems to provide particular services at the expense of others’.	CDB (2009)	ST: various, mainly ecology OB: Critical realism EA: Constructionism TP: Structuralism
Resilience	‘ … resilience … is a measure of the persistence of systems and of their ability to absorb change and disturbance and still maintain the same relationships between populations or state variables’. ‘Resilient forests are those that not only accommodate gradual changes related to climate but tend to return toward a prior condition after disturbance either naturally or with management assistance’.	Holling (1973); Millar et al. (2007)	ST: Ecological resilience OB: Structural realism EA: Objectivism TP: Positivism
Managing Nature	Conservation biology as a response to environmental crisis ‘shaped the relations between ecological science, natural resource management and environmental politics’. Conservation management actions are interventions undertaken by individuals to reach predetermined conservation goals (e.g. prevent, ameliorate, or accommodate change), for example restoration aims to repair or improve some conditions assumed to be malfunctioning.	Robin (2011); Prober et al. (2019)	ST: various, mainly ecology OB: Critical realism EA: Constructionism TP: Structuralism
Opportunities	‘Factors that make it easier to plan and implement adaptation actions, that expand adaptation options, or that provide ancillary co-benefits’.	Klein et al. (2014)	ST: multiple traditions OB: Relativism EA: Subjectivism TP: Structuralism
Learning and Understanding	‘The processes that are in place to enable learning and how to strengthen them’. ‘Enabling adaptive processes of improving management goals, policies and practices through learning are adopted to help bridge the science-policy gap’. ‘A systematic understanding of climate change adaptation by local natural resource managers is needed, not only to characterize the current status of adaptation, but also to enhance future efforts to track adaptation at scales relevant to state agencies or regional organizations’	Wyborn et al. (2016); Wise et al. (2014); Adger et al. (2009)	ST: multiple traditions OB: Bounded relativism EA: Constructionism TP: Constructivism
Anticipating	‘Adaptation needs arise when the anticipated risks or experienced impacts of climate change require action to ensure the safety of populations and the security of assets, including ecosystems and their services’.; ‘All efforts to “know the future” in the sense of thinking about and using the future are forms of anticipation. Equally the future is incorporated into all phenomena, conscious or unconscious, physical or ideational, as anticipation’.	Noble et al. (2014); Miller et al. (2013)	ST: multiple traditions OB: Relativism EA: Subjectivism/Objectivism TP: Constructivism/Positivism
Institutional Processes	Options to facilitate transitions or transformation of governance arrangements to accommodate change while acknowledging scientific uncertainty, considering social values and the cross-scale and systemic nature of climate impacts (vertical and horizontal integration).	Wyborn et al. (2016); Wise et al. (2014)	ST: multiple traditions OB: Bounded relativism EA: Constructionism TP: Critical theory/pragmatism

Figure 3. Cluster analysis by word similarity of the themes within the clusters and definitions. Clusters in blue represent Indirect mechanisms to create the right conditions; clusters in yellow are Active interventions and in green Passive interventions.

Figure 4. A conceptual model for adaptation in conservation. Depending on the perception of change (1) and the desired goals (2), the interventions (3) can differ. The options (4) for adaptation represent indirect underlying basis for all adaptation types, which can be an incremental process and separate from transformation, a continuum of resistance, resilience and transformation, or occur via transformation as an integral and necessary part of adaptation.

Ahvenharju S, Minkkinen M, Lalot F. 2018. The five dimensions of Futures Consciousness. Futures. 104:1–13. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2018.06.010

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Feola G. 2015. Societal transformation in response to global environmental change: a review of emerging concepts. Ambio. 44(5):376–390. doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0582-z.

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Moon K, Blackman D. 2014. A guide to understanding social science research for natural scientists. Biol Conserv. 28(5):1167–1177. doi:10.1111/cobi.12326.

 Google Scholar

Groves CR, Game ET, Anderson MG, Cross M, Enquist C, Ferdaña Z, Girvetz E, Gondor A, Hall KR, Higgins J, et al. 2012. Incorporating climate change into systematic conservation planning. Biodivers Conserv. 21(7):1651–1671. doi:10.1007/s10531-012-0269-3.

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

 Google Scholar

Lukasiewicz A, Pittock J, Finlayson CM. 2016. Are we adapting to climate change? A catchment-based adaptation assessment tool for freshwater ecosystems. Clim Change. 138(3–4):641–654. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1755-5.

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Metzger MJ, Rounsevell MDA, Acosta-Michlik L, Leemans R, Schröter D. 2006. The vulnerability of ecosystem services to land use change. Agric Ecosyst Environ. 114(1):69–85. 10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.025.

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Mace GM. 2014. Whose conservation? Science. 345(6204):1558–1560. doi:10.1126/science.1254704.

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Jax K, Calestani M, Chan KM, Eser U, Keune H, Muraca B, O’Brien L, Potthast T, Voget-Kleschin L, Wittmer H. 2018. Caring for nature matters: a relational approach for understanding nature’s contributions to human well-being. Curr Opin Environ Sustain. 35:22–29. doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2018.10.009

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

CDB. 2009. Connecting biodiversity and climate change mitigation and adaptation: report of the second ad hoc technical expert group on biodiversity and climate change. Montreal:Convention on Biological Diversity.

 Google Scholar

Holling CS. 1973. Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annu Rev Ecol Syst. 4(1):1–23. doi:10.1146/annurev.es.04.110173.000245.

 Google Scholar

Millar CI, Stephenson NL, Stephens SL. 2007. Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecol Appl. 17(8):2145–2151. doi:10.1890/06-1715.1.

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Robin L. 2011. The rise of the idea of biodiversity: crises, responses and expertise. Quaderni. 10(4000/quaderni.92):25–37. doi:10.4000/quaderni.92.

 Google Scholar

Prober SM, Doerr VAJ, Broadhurst LM, Williams KJ, Dickson F. 2019. Shifting the conservation paradigm: a synthesis of options for renovating nature under climate change. Ecol Monogr. 89(1):e01333. doi:10.1002/ecm.1333.

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Klein RJT, Midgley GF, Preston BL, Alam M, Berkhout FGH, Dow K, Shaw MR. 2014. Adaptation opportunities, constraints, and limits. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, et al., editors. Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. part a: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge (United Kingdom and New York, NY): Cambridge University Press; p. 899–943.4290.

 Google Scholar

Wyborn C, van Kerkhoff L, Dunlop M, Dudley N, Guevara O. 2016. Future oriented conservation: knowledge governance, uncertainty and learning. Biodivers Conserv. 25(7):1401–1408. doi:10.1007/s10531-016-1130-x.

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Wise RM, Fazey I, Stafford Smith M, Park SE, Eakin HC, Archer Van Garderen ERM, Campbell B. 2014. Reconceptualising adaptation to climate change as part of pathways of change and response. Glob Environ Change. 28:325–336. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.12.002

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Adger WN, Dessai S, Goulden M, Hulme M, Lorenzoni I, Nelson DR, Naess LO, Wolf J, Wreford A. 2009. Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change? Clim Change. 93(3–4):335–354. doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9520-z.

 Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Noble IR, Huq S, Anokhin YA, Carmin J, Goudou D, Lansigan FP, Osman-Elasha B, Villamizar A. 2014. Adaptation needs and options. In: Field CB, Barros VR, Dokken DJ, Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, et al., editors. Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. part a: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge (United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA): Cambridge University Press; p. 833–868.534.

 Google Scholar

Miller R, Poli R, Rossel P. 2013. The discipline of anticipation: exploring key issues. Paris: UNESCO.

 Google Scholar