Transitional probabilities for plastic waste management and implication on sustainability

Figures & data

Figure 1. The two-dimensional cyclical model for plastic waste management (Addor et al., 2022a).

Figure 2. Global annual plastic production, waste generation, recycling, discarded and incineration.

Table 1. Values of parameters and their sources

Parameter	Value	Source
$\psi$	$0.14642$	(Addor et al., 2022a, Addor et al., 2022b)
$\mu$	$0.81474$	(Addor et al., 2022a, Addor et al., 2022b)
$w_i$	$0.20642$	(Addor et al., 2022a, Addor et al., 2022b)
$w_d$	$0.64716$	(Addor et al., 2022a, Addor et al., 2022b)
$w$	$0.85358$	(Addor et al., 2022a, Addor et al., 2022b)

Table 2. A summary of computational technique for $y_s$ and $x_s$

Global Annual Variable (Metric tonnes)	Global Annual Plastic Packaging		Uncensored Values (Metric tonnes)
	Share in Global Annual Plastic Production (%)	Share in Global Annual Plastic Waste Generation (%)	$y_s$	$x_s$
$x$	42 (Geyer et al., 2017)	54 (Geyer et al., 2017)	$0.42\times 0.54\times x$	$0.46\times 0.25\times y$
$y$	46 (Statista, 2021)	25 (Assumed)

Figure 3. A time series representation of the transitional probabilities for plastic waste generation under the: (a) full forces of incineration and discarding, (b) full force of discarding without incineration and (b) full operation of incineration without discarding.

Figure 4. A time series plot of the transitional probabilities for plastic recycling under the: (a) full forces of incineration and discarding, (b) full force of discarding without incineration and (b) full operation of incineration without discarding.

Figure 5. Plastic recycling and waste generation probabilities with total riddance of incineration and discarding.

Figure 6. A time series plot of the transitional probabilities for plastic waste recycling at 64% (10% increase from 54%) and 44% (10% decrease from 54%) of waste generation rate of packaging application (uncensored) plastic wastes ($y_s$).

Figure 7. A time series representation of the transitional probabilities for plastic waste generation at 35% (a), 25% (b), 15% (c) and 55%(d) rate of recycling uncensored (packaging) plastic waste. 35% represents 10% increase from 25%; 15% represents 10% decrease from 25%; and 55% is the European Union’s (EU’s) target set.

Addor, J. A., Wiah, E. N., & Alao, F. I. (2022a). Mathematical models for the cyclical dynamics of plastic waste management: A two-state closed model. Journal of Materials Science Research and Review, 9(2), 15–16. https://journaljmsrr.com/index.php/JMSRR/article/view/30234

 Google Scholar

Addor, J. A., Wiah, E. N., & Alao, F. I. (2022b). An improved two-states cyclical dynamics for plastic waste management. Asian Research Journal of Mathematics, 18(5), 52–68. https://doi.org/10.9734/arjom/2022/v18i530378

 Google Scholar

Geyer, R., Jambeck, J. R., & Law, K. L. (2017). Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made. Sci. Adv, 3(7), e1700782. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1700782

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Statista, Distribution of plastic waste generation worldwide in 2018, by sector, Ian Tieso, 2021. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1166582/global-plastic-waste-generation-by-sector/

 Google Scholar