The geopolitical environment impact of Arctic Passage on Eurasia: An analysis based on multi-factor geometric potential models

Figures & data

Figure 1. Sketch map of the Arctic Passage (the boundary was obtained from natural earth (http://www.naturalearthdata.com/), figure quoted from (C. Wang et al., 2022)).

Figure 2. The quantitative assessment and spatial pattern analysis of the Arctic Passage’s geo-setting.

Table 1. The geo-potential evaluation index system

Evaluative items	Weight	First-class index	Weight	Second-class index	Weight
Hard power	0.631	Geo-economics	0.182	GDP	0.091
				GDP growth rate	0.042
		Geostrategy	0.075	Military expenditure of GDP	0.027
		Geo-technology	0.252	Number of patent applications	0.114
				R&D researchers (per million people)	0.025
		Channel operating capacity	0.230	Container terminal throughput	0.116
				Port infrastructure quality	0.008
				Number of icebreakers	0.160
		Channel using capacity	0.261	Average annual usage count of channel	0.112
				Cargo volume carried by channel	0.119
Soft power	0.118	Geo-culture	0.298	Total public education expenditure of GDP	0.017
				Enrollment rate of higher education institution	0.019
		Geopolitics	0.393	Government effectiveness	0.027
				Political stability and no violence	0.010
				Voice and accountability	0.019
		Laws and regulations	0.309	Legal rights index	0.019
				Degree of legal perfection	0.020
Interdependence	0.251	Interdependence rate		Import dependence	0.028
				Export dependence	0.028

Table 2. Each state’s geo-potential score

Arctic states	Hard power	Soft power	Inter-dependence	Score	Geo-potential	Non-Arctic states	Hard power	Soft power	Inter-dependence	Score	Geo-potential
Russia	0.241	0.037	0.032	0.165	3570.110	China	0.232	0.031	0.023	0.156	29.915
Norway	0.038	0.067	0.047	0.044	46.239	South Korea	0.039	0.060	0.050	0.044	3.813
The U.S.	0.145	0.069	0.017	0.104	16.491	Japan	0.038	0.048	0.024	0.036	1.254
Sweden	0.020	0.073	0.059	0.036	2.706	Germany	0.032	0.060	0.058	0.042	0.490
Finland	0.053	0.066	0.052	0.054	2.257	Poland	0.010	0.046	0.070	0.029	0.098
Denmark	0.021	0.070	0.069	0.039	0.443	The Netherlands	0.018	0.055	0.101	0.043	0.093
Canada	0.044	0.068	0.043	0.047	0.167	The United Kingdom	0.016	0.062	0.042	0.028	0.088
Iceland	0.007	0.062	0.056	0.026	0.069	France	0.013	0.056	0.042	0.025	0.040
						Vietnam	0.017	0.033	0.138	0.050	0.031
						Thailand	0.014	0.038	0.072	0.031	0.021

Figure 3. The comprehensive power score of European states.

Figure 4. The comprehensive power score of Asian states.

Table 3. The result of clustering based on the geo-potential index score

Classification Basis	Classification results
Geo-potential	Category 1	Russia
	Category 2	The United States, Norway
	Category 3	Other states
The comprehensive score of hard power, soft power and interdependence (rule out distance)	Category 1	The United States
	Category 2	Russia, China
	Category 3	Other states
Hard power	Category 1	The United States
	Category 2	Russia, China
	Category 3	Other states
Soft power	Category 1	Russia, China, Thailand, Vietnam
	Category 2	Poland
	Category 3	Japan
	Category 4	The Netherlands, the United States, Switzerland, Canada, France, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Finland
Interdependence	Category 1	Russia, the United States, Japan, China
	Category 2	The Netherlands, Vietnam
	Category 3	Thailand, Poland, Denmark, Sweden, Iceland, Germany, Norway, South Korea, Finland, Canada, the United Kingdom, France

Table 4. The results of similarity analysis

Geo-potential (Russia)			Geo-potential (USA)
Similarity Rank	Country	SSVD	Similarity Rank	Country	SSVD
1	Norway	27.169	1	China	6.135
2	China	34.510	2	Finland	6.311
3	Finland	34.838	3	Norway	6.672
4	Sweden	35.191	4	Sweden	6.888
5	South Korea	35.340	5	South Korea	7.007
6	Japan	35.497	6	Japan	7.712
7	Canada	35.693	7	Denmark	8.256
8	Denmark	35.698	8	Germany	8.266
9	Germany	35.708	9	Canada	8.296
10	Poland	35.722	10	Poland	8.367
11	Netherlands	35.724	11	Netherlands	8.371
12	United Kingdom	35.726	12	United Kingdom	8.377
13	Iceland	35.734	13	Iceland	8.396
14	France	35.746	14	France	8.426
15	Vietnam	35.750	15	Vietnam	8.435
16	Thailand	35.758	16	Thailand	8.454

Note: SSVD (Sum Squared Value Differences).

Wang, C., Liu, D., Wang, J., Zhao, Y., Shan, H., & Xue, B. (2022). Spatial match analysis of multiple factors in the geopolitical environment of the arctic passage. PloS ONE, 17(7), e0270262. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0270262

 PubMed Web of Science ®Google Scholar

Data availability statement

The authors confirm that the data supporting the findings of this study are available within the article and its supplementary materials.