Performance evaluation of CORDEX South Asia models for projections of precipitation over the Kabul basin, Afghanistan

Figures & data

Figure 1. Topographic map of the Kabul basin, Afghanistan, with climate grid used in this study.

Table 1. Data used in this study.

Precipitation gridded dataset
Name of product	Resolution	Domain	Agency/academic institution	Availability	Reference
APHRODITE MA V1101	0.25°×0.25°	Monsoon Asia 60°E–150°E, 15°S–55°N	Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency (MRI/JMA)	1951–2007	http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/precip/english/products.html
CORDEX SA RCM (Regional Climate Models)
ID	RCM (Regional Climate Models)	Driving GCMs	Resolution	Contributing institute/country
RCM-01	CCCma	CanESM2	0.5° ×0.5°	IITM/Canada
RCM-02	CCCma	CanESM2	0.5° ×0.5°	SMHI/Canada
RCM-03	CNRM-CERFACS	CNRM-CM5	0.5° ×0.5°	IITM/France
RCM-04	CNRM-CERFACS	CNRM-CM5	0.5° ×0.5°	SMHI/France
RCM-05	CSIRO-QCCCE	CSIRO-Mk3-6-0	0.5° ×0.5°	IITM/Australia
RCM-06	CSIRO-QCCCE	CSIRO-Mk3-6-0	0.5° ×0.5°	SMHI/Australia
RCM-07	ICHEC	EC-EARTH	0.5° ×0.5°	SMHI/Sweden
RCM-08	IPSL	IPSL-CM5A-LR	0.5° ×0.5°	IITM/France
RCM-09	IPSL	IPSL-CM5A-MR	0.5° ×0.5°	SMHI/France
RCM-10	MIROC	MIROC5	0.5° ×0.5°	SMHI/Japan
RCM-11	MOHC	HadGEM2-ES	0.5° ×0.5°	SMHI/United Kingdom
RCM-12	MPI-M	MPI-ESM-LR	0.5° ×0.5°	MPI/Germany
RCM-13	MPI-M	MPI-ESM-LR	0.5° ×0.5°	SMHI/Germany
RCM-14	MPI-M	MPI-ESM-MR	0.5° ×0.5°	IITM/Germany
RCM-15	NCC	NorESM1-M	0.5° ×0.5°	SMHI/Norway
RCM-16	NOAA-GFDL	GFDL-ESM2M	0.5° ×0.5°	IITM/USA
RCM-17	NOAA-GFDL	GFDL-ESM2M	0.5° ×0.5°	SMHI/USA

Figure 2. Taylor diagram for comparison of monthly precipitation in CORDEX SA (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment South Asia) with APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation – Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation) for the baseline period (1986–2005). IDs refer to Table 1.

Figure 3. Long-term average of monthly precipitation in CORDEX SA (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment South Asia) and APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation – Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation) for the baseline period (1986–2005).IDs refer to Table 1.

Figure 4. Spatial distribution of annual precipitation in CORDEX SA (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment South Asia) and APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation – Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation) for the baseline period (1986–2005).IDs refer to Table 1.

Table 2. Verification statistics of monthly precipitation in CORDEX SA compared with APHRODITE for the baseline period (1986 to 2005).

CORDEX SA RCM (IDs refer to Table 1)	MAE	MB	ME	PE	RMSE	r	s (skill score)
RCM-01	52.68	1.77	15.84	76.72	70.94	−0.05	0.68
RCM-02	32.42	0.81	−11.94	−18.52	44.80	0.19	0.57
RCM-03	49.67	1.86	19.88	86.42	66.35	0.08	0.67
RCM-04	41.40	1.49	12.76	49.06	56.32	0.22	0.69
RCM-05	45.61	1.80	15.89	79.59	59.36	0.15	0.68
RCM-06	36.76	1.24	2.82	24.14	50.45	0.31	0.63
RCM-07	31.87	0.96	−5.36	−3.84	44.54	0.38	0.64
RCM-08	56.82	1.98	23.33	98.36	76.68	−0.08	0.66
RCM-09	35.69	0.94	−7.67	−6.06	48.92	0.03	0.58
RCM-10	39.67	1.40	10.40	40.29	56.68	0.41	0.68
RCM-11	39.64	1.30	5.63	30.06	54.47	0.22	0.63
RCM-12	43.50	1.86	21.20	85.60	59.70	0.26	0.72
RCM-13	35.52	1.15	1.11	15.36	48.36	0.29	0.65
RCM-14	55.73	2.10	26.60	110.23	73.15	0.03	0.63
RCM-15	36.55	1.17	1.85	17.37	51.47	0.26	0.67
RCM-16	56.44	2.07	24.66	106.68	80.66	0.02	0.67
RCM-17	36.48	1.08	−1.98	8.42	51.69	0.11	0.66

Table 3. Monthly changes in future precipitation (%) for the Kabul basin using six selected RCMs under 2 RCP scenarios.

	RCP 4.5												RCP 8.5
RCMs (Regional Climate Models)	2020–2039												2020–2039
	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
CSIRO-QCCCE-CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_r1i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	14.8	−28.1	−28.0	−11.3	−14.0	39.6	−8.2	30.9	−22.1	−43.7	−24.1	6.0	−2.0	−31.1	−15.5	−0.4	−12.3	30.9	−5.3	−2.5	1.6	−27.8	−41.0	−10.6
ICHEC-EC-EARTH_r12i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	−32.3	5.7	−22.7	4.5	−17.3	4.2	6.8	−36.2	−22.8	0.5	52.3	−5.8	−25.1	15.0	32.0	40.4	−6.1	−8.5	−23.3	−49.6	−25.3	23.6	27.4	−28.2
MIROC-MIROC5_r1i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	−3.3	4.5	−10.6	−12.6	−10.2	35.3	−29.4	1.8	64.1	23.4	4.7	−2.3	−19.1	12.6	−8.6	15.2	−7.3	49.7	−28.7	−20.8	69.9	24.8	18.5	1.7
MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR_r1i1p1_MPI-CSC-REMO2009_v1	−10.0	−10.1	−17.0	9.3	5.3	3.5	9.3	−5.2	−28.0	12.2	−3.3	−2.8	−10.3	−12.3	−17.5	10.7	−11.4	−6.6	5.8	−28.7	−5.7	13.2	−0.3	32.2
MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR_r1i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	−9.2	4.1	−16.1	8.6	12.4	21.4	65.9	10.9	−24.5	−8.3	−1.2	16.2	−7.5	0.5	−6.5	5.6	−7.9	1.9	32.4	7.7	−10.1	−18.5	27.5	42.8
NCC-NorESM1-M_r1i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	−17.7	−22.2	−12.6	−16.6	17.7	0.6	−7.8	−3.1	−17.2	3.8	−10.1	30.1	−3.8	−6.7	−24.5	−13.9	−13.6	21.9	10.9	−12.1	0.4	27.4	2.1	−12.2
RCMs	2040–2059												2040–2059
	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
CSIRO-QCCCE-CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_r1i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	5.7	−19.2	−28.7	−8.0	3.3	17.9	−13.8	13.8	−14.9	−38.3	−27.0	1.3	11.7	10.1	−6.9	−0.5	−14.4	43.8	12.0	−10.3	−26.4	−15.2	−39.8	−3.6
ICHEC-EC-EARTH_r12i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	−14.7	6.8	−9.8	13.5	−15.3	−6.7	−1.6	−21.8	−48.0	5.9	63.5	5.4	−18.1	12.9	2.6	12.1	2.1	−34.8	−15.0	−28.9	−51.7	23.5	53.8	−21.0
MIROC-MIROC5_r1i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	−11.5	13.7	−22.3	−12.4	−17.3	10.6	−24.8	4.3	54.3	9.5	−4.0	25.3	15.5	−2.3	1.2	0.4	−15.8	−17.5	−13.0	8.2	40.3	19.1	−5.7	−10.5
MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR_r1i1p1_MPI-CSC-REMO2009_v1	−26.2	−27.9	−14.2	9.3	−8.7	24.0	−5.2	−5.1	−12.8	−6.9	−0.3	−11.3	0.9	−0.9	−21.5	1.3	−22.6	35.6	11.8	19.7	11.4	0.3	−10.1	7.2
MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR_r1i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	−24.8	−31.6	−17.7	−4.7	11.2	25.2	34.9	3.8	−6.4	10.8	49.6	11.7	12.2	−8.8	−27.9	−24.0	−13.8	3.1	43.9	53.2	27.1	−13.6	−4.0	42.3
NCC-NorESM1-M_r1i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	−16.4	−7.0	−1.2	−13.4	10.0	−4.0	−4.5	−17.8	11.4	−3.5	3.8	3.4	−6.4	14.0	8.7	−20.7	−15.7	−4.0	−9.7	4.0	34.3	−3.4	19.5	−0.6
RCMs	2060–2079												2060–2079
	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
CSIRO-QCCCE-CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_r1i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	3.6	19.8	−24.8	−3.9	−24.1	45.3	−8.1	−17.6	−23.4	−34.8	8.0	−24.8	15.9	13.9	−30.0	0.3	−32.9	35.9	−4.1	−28.0	−18.0	−13.9	26.5	−12.0
ICHEC-EC-EARTH_r12i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	−20.4	−7.4	−10.2	7.0	4.6	−2.1	−18.0	−46.2	−23.6	47.8	72.0	17.2	−32.8	−6.6	−1.9	4.8	−9.9	26.1	−15.0	−10.9	−18.0	31.2	23.2	16.1
MIROC-MIROC5_r1i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	−24.3	22.9	−5.9	−18.9	7.6	−3.6	−20.8	−1.2	48.4	−1.4	−40.3	−21.8	−15.1	−9.6	−14.6	−27.2	−3.5	−22.9	11.9	5.6	−6.7	35.8	−38.4	−11.0
MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR_r1i1p1_MPI-CSC-REMO2009_v1	−0.4	−34.4	−24.4	−14.9	−15.4	54.3	5.2	−18.8	24.1	18.3	2.8	12.1	−16.4	−14.2	−24.9	−20.6	−22.5	−10.5	19.8	−24.8	−5.5	43.2	4.1	1.4
MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR_r1i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	10.3	−45.9	−24.5	−10.4	11.1	11.4	51.8	48.2	32.4	−25.4	14.6	25.8	−1.8	−5.5	−13.8	−37.8	−4.8	17.3	49.5	6.0	33.3	15.3	9.4	36.9
NCC-NorESM1-M_r1i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	0.0	18.1	−0.8	−15.8	−3.4	3.2	−35.8	−18.8	−12.8	26.2	−8.3	−24.9	−3.0	−28.1	−7.0	−23.1	−2.5	20.5	18.3	−19.0	6.8	−3.0	−13.4	3.4
RCMs	2080–2099												2080–2099
	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
CSIRO-QCCCE-CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_r1i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	30.9	15.9	0.7	−18.0	1.1	17.4	−9.8	−19.3	−27.7	−49.5	−13.9	−8.0	−0.2	8.7	−9.4	0.9	−17.7	24.5	−31.9	−27.5	−18.3	−36.5	−16.2	10.3
ICHEC-EC-EARTH_r12i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	−5.0	−12.1	0.2	19.7	−11.0	−15.6	3.6	−34.1	−7.3	16.2	133.7	12.7	−10.1	10.1	−13.6	10.0	−21.0	30.5	9.9	−9.7	−35.9	54.4	74.7	27.1
MIROC-MIROC5_r1i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	−11.3	−0.6	−10.9	−15.8	−19.3	−5.8	−13.3	53.8	53.2	−12.0	−23.6	−16.2	−6.3	0.3	−31.5	−28.8	−10.8	−12.1	53.3	21.1	78.1	30.0	−33.2	−28.5
MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR_r1i1p1_MPI-CSC-REMO2009_v1	−12.3	−8.8	−23.4	−7.3	−20.8	17.2	13.4	−8.6	−10.1	−3.8	0.2	−14.4	−23.9	−23.3	−30.3	−18.3	−23.5	25.9	−3.4	−1.0	−9.8	−0.2	−7.2	−32.9
MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR_r1i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	−5.2	−11.8	−29.9	−11.0	1.4	−15.9	42.1	44.4	15.2	7.7	48.9	−11.3	−14.0	−22.1	−23.6	−13.8	−27.9	63.5	91.0	25.3	19.4	−2.4	42.7	−12.6
NCC-NorESM1-M_r1i1p1_SMHI-RCA4_v2	1.7	−8.7	−5.7	5.8	7.3	5.0	−1.7	−18.7	−37.9	3.8	−2.1	−28.0	−26.4	−22.1	−9.2	−27.0	−2.4	32.6	20.6	73.5	2.1	−17.5	−42.1	−12.6

Figure 5. Future precipitation projections of Kabul basin.

Figure 6. Average seasonal changes of precipitation from six selected RCMs (Regional Climate Models) over the baseline period (1986–2005).

Figure 7. Spatial distribution of future projected precipitation changes over the baseline period (1986–2005) in the Kabul basin.

Data availability statement

In this study, two different types of data were used: (a) the APHRODITE global precipitation dataset available in the public domain at http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/precip/english/products.html; and (b) regional circulation model (RCM) datasets from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) program (see Jones et al., 2011) https://cordex.org/data-access/.