A Framework for Reliability Prediction During Product Development Process Incorporating Engineering Judgments

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive framework for reliability prediction during the product development process. Early in the product development process, there is typically little or no quantitative evidence to predict the reliability of the new concept except indirect or qualitative information. The proposed framework addresses the issue of utilizing qualitative information in the reliability analysis. The framework is based on the Bayesian approach. The fuzzy logic theory is used to enhance the capability of the Bayesian approach to deal with qualitative information. This paper proposes to extract the information from various design tools and design review records and incorporate it into the Bayesian framework through a fuzzy inference system. The Weibull distribution is considered as failure/survival time distribution with the assumption of a known value of shape factor. Initial parameters of the Weibull distribution are estimated from warranty data of prior systems to estimate the initial Bayesian parameter ( λ _t ). The applicability of the framework is illustrated via an example.

Keywords:

• Reliability prediction
• Weibull distribution
• Fuzzy logic
• Bayesian framework
• Engineering judgments
• Product development process

Acknowledgments