Afghanistan after the Occupation: Examining the Post‐Soviet Withdrawal and the Najibullah Regime It Left Behind, 1989–1992

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Notes

1. Gilles Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending: Afghanistan 1979 to the Present, New York: Taylor & Francis, 2005; Barnett Rubin, The Fragmentation of Afghanistan: State Formation and Collapse in the International System, second ed., New Haven, CT: Taylor & Francis, 2002; Antonio Giustozzi, War, Politics and Society in Afghanistan 1978–1992, Washington, DC: Taylor & Francis, 2000; Peter Tomsen, The Wars of Afghanistan: Messianic Terrorism, Tribal Conflicts, and the Failures of Great Powers, New York: Taylor & Francis, 2011.

2. Diego Cordovez and Selig Harrison, Out of Afghanistan: The Inside Story of the Soviet Withdrawal, New York: Taylor & Francis, 1995; Phillip Corwin, Doomed in Afghanistan, New Brunswick, NJ: Taylor & Francis, 2003. Ambassador Tomsen's previously cited work also contains insights into the diplomatic issues of the day during his tenure as US Special Envoy to Afghanistan from 1989 to 1992.

3. Artemy Kalinovsky, A Long Goodbye: The Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan, Cambridge, MA: Taylor & Francis, 2011; Lester Grau, “Breaking Contact Without Leaving Chaos: The Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan,” Journal of Slavic Military Studies 2, 2007, 235–261; Lester Grau and Thomas Wilhelm, “The Soviet Withdrawal From Afghanistan: Lessons To Frame Success and Avoid Failures,” FMSO Occasional Paper, 11 November 2011; David G. Fivecoat, “Leaving the Graveyard: The Soviet Union's Withdrawal from Afghanistan,” Parameters 2, 2012, 42–55; Sarah Mendelson, “Internal Battle and External Wars: Politics, Learning, and the Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan,” World Politics 3, 1993, 327–360.

4. Mark Katz, “Lessons of the Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan,” Middle East Policy Council Commentary, 9 March 2011, available at: http://www.mepc.org/articles‐commentary/commentary/lessons‐soviet‐withdrawal‐afghanistan, accessed 8 September 2012.

5. Tad Daley, Afghanistan and Gorbachev's Global Foreign Policy, Santa Monica, CA: Taylor & Francis, 1989, 1–2; Grau, “Breaking Contact,” 235; Cordovez and Harrison, Out of Afghanistan, 4–5; William Odom, The Collapse of the Soviet Military, New Haven, CT: Taylor & Francis, 1998, 104.

6. David N. Gibbs, “Afghanistan: The Soviet Invasion in Retrospect,” International Politics 37, June 2000, 233–246: 235–6; David N. Gibbs, “Reassessing Soviet Motives for Invading Afghanistan,” Critical Asian Studies 2, 2006, 239–263: 239, 250, 255–57; Cordovez and Harrison, Out of Afghanistan, 4–5, 13, 44–5.

7. Lester Grau, trans and ed, The Bear Went Over the Mountain: Soviet Combat Tactics in Afghanistan, second ed., Washington, DC: Taylor & Francis, 1996, xviii–xix; Cordovez and Harrison, Out of Afghanistan, 46; Artemy Kalinovsky, “Afghanistan is the New Afghanistan,” Foreign Policy, 4 September 2009, available at: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/09/04/afghanistan_is_the_new_afghanistan?, accessed 24 October 2012; Kalinovsky, A Long Goodbye, 14.

8. Fred Halliday and Zahir Tanin, “The Communist Regime in Afghanistan 1978–1992: Institutions and Conflicts,” Europe‐Asia Studies 8, 1998, 1357–1380: 1374; Cordovez and Harrison, Out of Afghanistan, 187, 245; Paul Robinson, “Soviet Hearts‐And‐Minds Operations in Afghanistan,” The Historian, 2010, 1–22: 14.

9. Halliday and Tanin, “The Communist Regime,” 1374.

10. Larry Goodson and Thomas H. Johnson, “Parallels with the Past—How the Soviets Lost in Afghanistan, How the Americans are Losing,” Orbis 4, 2011, 577–599: 577; Mendelson, “Internal Battle and External Wars,” 350.

11. Fred Halliday, “Soviet Foreign Policymaking and the Afghanistan War: From ‘Second Mongolia’ to ‘Bleeding Wound’,” Review of International Studies 4, 1999, 675–691: 683; Robinson, “Soviet Hearts‐And‐Minds Operations,” 14; Mendelson, “Internal Battle and External Wars,” 353; Cordovez and Harrison, Out of Afghanistan, 187–188; Artemy Kalinovsky, The Blind Leading the Blind: Soviet Advisors, Counter‐Insurgency and Nation‐Building in Afghanistan, Cold War International History Project Working Paper #60, Washington, DC: Taylor & Francis, January 2010, 23.

12. A.Z. Hilali, “Afghanistan: The Decline of Soviet Military Strategy and Political Status,” The Journal of Slavic Military Studies 1, 1999, 94–123: 115; Mendelson, “Internal Battle and External Wars,” 352, 355–8; Halliday, “Soviet Foreign Policymaking,” 691; Cordovez and Harrison, Out of Afghanistan, 5; Artemy Kalinovsky, “Old Politics, New Diplomacy: The Geneva Accords and the Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan,” Cold War History 3, 2008, 381–404: 387.

13. The Geneva Accords consisted of four items: Bilateral Agreement Between the Republic of Afghanistan and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan on the Principles of Mutual Relations, in particular on Non‐Interference and Non‐Intervention; Declaration on International Guarantees Between the United States and the Soviet Union; Agreement on the Interrelationships for the Settlement of the Situation relating to Afghanistan; and Bilateral Agreement Between the Republic of Afghanistan and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan on the Voluntary Return of Refugees; see Richard Weitz, “Moscow's Endgame in Afghanistan,” Conflict Quarterly 1, 1992, 25–46: 25; Zalmay Khalilzad, “Anarchy in Afghanistan,” Journal of International Affairs 1, 1997, 37–56: 42; Barnett Rubin, “Post‐Cold War State Disintegration: The Failure of International Conflict Resolution in Afghanistan,” Journal of International Affairs 2, 1993, 469–92: 470, 479; Zalmay Khalilzad, “Soviet‐American Cooperation in Afghanistan,” in Mark Katz, ed., Soviet‐American Conflict Resolution in the Third World, Washington, DC: Taylor & Francis, 1991, 67–94: 68.

14. Barnett Rubin, “The Fragmentation of Afghanistan,” Foreign Affairs 5, 1989, 150–168: 152; Halliday, “Soviet Foreign Policymaking,” 687–688; Khalilzad, “Anarchy in Afghanistan,” 42; Grau, “Breaking Contact,” 253–254.

15. KGB: Komitet Gosudarstvennoi Bezopasnosti (Committee for State Security), the name for the Soviet secret police from 1954 to 1991.

16. Thom Shanker, “With U.S. Set To Leave Afghanistan, Echoes of 1989,” The New York Times, 2 January 2013, available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/02/world/asia/us‐war‐in‐afghanistan‐has‐echoes‐of‐soviet‐experience.html?ref=thomshanker&pagewanted=all, accessed 30 January 2013; Cordovez and Harrison, Out of Afghanistan, 9; Kalinovsky, A Long Goodbye, 170–172; Olga Oliker, Building Afghanistan's Security Forces in Wartime: The Soviet Experience, Santa Monica, CA: Taylor & Francis, 2011, 76–77.

17. US Army, “Lessons from the War in Afghanistan,” Washington, DC, May 1989, in The September 11th Sourcebooks, Vol II: Afghanistan: Lessons from the Last War, US Analysis of the Soviet War in Afghanistan: Declassified, ed. John Prados, Taylor & Francis, 2001, available at: http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB57/us11.pdf, accessed 25 October 2012; Cordovez and Harrison, Out of Afghanistan, 384; George Crile, Charlie Wilson's War: The Extraordinary Story of How the Wildest Man in Congress and a Rogue CIA Agent Changed the History of Our Times, New York: Taylor & Francis, 2003, 504; Grau, The Bear Went Over the Mountain, xviii–xix; Odom, The Collapse, 249.

18. Shane A. Smith, “Lessons Learned or Mistakes Repeated? A Study of Soviet Performance in Afghanistan versus Russian Performance in the Chechen Wars,” The Culture & Conflict Review 2, 2008, available at: http://www.nps.edu/programs/ccs/Journal/Jan08/Smith.html, accessed 24 October 2012.

19. Antonio Giustozzi, Afghanistan: Transition Without End, Crisis States Working Papers Series no. 2, Working Paper 40, London: Taylor & Francis, 2008, 26.

20. “The Soviet Union and Afghanistan, 1978–1989: Documents from the Russian and East German Archives,” comp. and ed. J.G. Hershberg, Cold War International History Project Bulletin 8–9, 1996–7, 133–184: 181–2, available at: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/bulletin‐no‐89‐winter‐1996, accessed 25 October 2012.

21. “Winning by not losing,” The Economist, 2 September 1989, 36.

22. US Central Intelligence Agency, “USSR: Withdrawal From Afghanistan (March 1988),” by Director of Central Intelligence, Special National Intelligence Estimate, serial 11/37–88, Washington, DC, 1988, Declassified, 219–220, available at: https://www.cia.gov/library/center‐for‐the‐study‐of‐intelligence/csi‐publications/books‐and‐monographs/at‐cold‐wars‐end‐us‐intelligence‐on‐the‐soviet‐union‐and‐eastern‐europe‐1989‐1991/16526pdffiles/SNIE11‐37‐88.pdf, accessed 24 October 2012; Jim Mann, “U.S. Sees Fall of Afghan Regime as Soviets Leave: Kabul's Army Called Shaky and Ineffective,” Los Angeles Times, 26 February 1988, available at: http://articles.latimes.com/1988‐02‐26/news/mn‐30319_1_soviet‐union, accessed 1 November 2012; Zalmay Khalilzad, Prospects for the Afghan Interim Government, Santa Monica, CA: Taylor & Francis, 1991, v; Andrew Kuchins, “The Soviet and U.S. Experiences in Military Intervention in Afghanistan and Current U.S.‐Russian Cooperation,” paper presented at Carnegie Council's Program on U.S. Global Engagement: a Two‐Year Retrospective, New York, 1–3 June 2011, available at: http://csis.org/publication/soviet‐and‐us‐experiences‐military‐intervention‐afghanistan‐and‐current‐us‐russian‐coope, accessed 4 September 2012; James Rupert, “Afghanistan's Slide toward Civil War” World Policy Journal 4, 1989, 759–785: 760; M.M. Ali, “Cold War's End has not Halted the Human Tragedy in Afghanistan,” The Washington Report on Middle East Affairs 10, no. 7, 28 February 1992, 41: 41; U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, “Afghanistan: Soviet Withdrawal Scenario,” Defense Intelligence Agency Appraisal, serial 15–88, Washington, DC, 1988, 3, in The September 11th Sourcebooks, Vol II: Afghanistan: Lessons from the Last War, US Analysis of the Soviet War in Afghanistan: Declassified, ed. John Prados, Taylor & Francis, 2001, available at: http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB57/us10.pdf, accessed 25 October 2012.

23. Tomsen, Wars of Afghanistan, 268.

24. Rosanne Klass, “Afghanistan: The Accords,” Foreign Affairs 5, 1988, 922–945: 940.

25. Ibid., 939.

26. Joseph Collins, “Statement before the House Armed Services Committee, Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee,” Hearing on Afghanistan: Historical Lessons, 18 July 2012, 6, available at: http://armedservices.house.gov/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=998d442e‐bc1c‐45a6‐b5c0‐2da8475f7860, accessed 29 January 2014.

27. Steve Coll, Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and Bin Laden, From the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001, New York: Taylor & Francis, 2004, 189.

28. Zalmay Khalilzad, “Afghanistan After the Soviet Military Withdrawal,” Testimony before the Subcommittee on Asian and Pacific Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Relations on 14 June 1989, 2 (also labeled 107 in the record), available at: http://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=pst.000015619495;view=1up;seq=110, accessed 31 January 2014; Khalilzad, Prospects, vii–viii; Khalilzad, “Soviet‐American Cooperation,” 82.

29. Theodore L. Eliot, “Afghanistan in 1989: Stalemate,” Asian Survey 2, 1990, 158–166: 158; Derek Leebaert, The Fifty‐Year Wound: The True Price of America's Cold War Victory, Boston, MA: Taylor & Francis, 2002, 549; Grau, “Breaking Contact,” 252; Tomsen, Wars of Afghanistan, 340; Anton Minkov and Gregory Smolynec, “4‐D Soviet Style: Defense, Development, Diplomacy, and Disengagement in Afghanistan During the Soviet Period. Part III: Economic Development,” Journal of Slavic Military Studies 4, 2010, 597–616: 603 & n33.

30. Rubin, “Fragmentation of Afghanistan,” 162.

31. “Soviet Union and Afghanistan, 1978–1989,” 184.

32. SCUD: NATO designation for various Soviet tactical ballistic missiles of the “R” variation.

33. Peter Tomsen, Testimony before the House of Representatives Select Committee on Hunger on 27 July 1989, 2 (also labeled 110 in the record), available at: http://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=umn.319510030846728;view=1up;seq=47, accessed 31 January 2014; Barnett Rubin, “Situation in Afghanistan,” Testimony before the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, US Congress on 3 May 1990, 12 (also labeled as 21 in the record: both numbers are displayed—first page number represents individuals submitted testimony page numbering, while second number identifies page number of position in master record), available at: http://csce.gov/index.cfm?FuseAction=ContentRecords.ViewDetail&ContentRecord_id=91&Region_id=101&Issue_id=0&ContentType=H&ContentRecordType=H&CFID=6150540&CFTOKEN=7f98863b48178cba‐BBC337AA‐BD9B‐FFCD‐B498525B8B584438, accessed 31 January 14; A. Marshall, Phased Withdrawal, Conflict Resolution and State Reconstruction, Swinden: Taylor & Francis, June 2006, 5–7; Giustozzi, War, 112, 274; Khalilzad, “Soviet‐American Cooperation,” 82–83; Oliker, Building Afghanistan's, 77; Khalilzad, “Afghanistan After,” 5 (also labeled 110 in the record); Katz, “Lessons of the Soviet Withdrawal”; “The Soviet Union and Afghanistan, 1978–1989,” 183.

34. BTR: Bronetransporter or armed personnel carrier.

35. FROG: NATO designation for the short‐range Soviet 9 K52 Luna‐M missile.

36. Mark Webber, “The Third World and the Dissolution of the USSR,” Third World Quarterly 4, 1992, 691–713: 702–3; Rubin, “Fragmentation of Afghanistan,” 162; Coll, Ghost Wars, 194; “The Soviet Union and Afghanistan, 1978–1989,” 183; Sonali Kolhatkar and James Ingalls, Bleeding Afghanistan: Washington, Warlords, and the Propaganda of Silence, New York: Taylor & Francis, 2006, 14–15.

37. Eliot, “Afghanistan in 1989,” 160.

38. Barnett Rubin, “Afghanistan: ‘Back to Feudalism,’” Current History 542, 1989, 421–424, 444–6: 424; 6; Khalilzad, “Soviet‐American Cooperation,” 83; Oliker, Building Afghanistan's, 77; Giustozzi, War, 104; Coll, Ghost Wars, 194; Robinson, “Soviet Hearts‐And‐Minds Operations,” 17; “The Soviet Union and Afghanistan, 1978–1989,” 182.

39. Rubin, “Fragmentation of Afghanistan,” 170.

40. Rasul Bakhsh Rais, “Afghanistan after the Soviet Withdrawal,” Current History 91, no. 563, 1992, 123–127: 123; Martin Ewans, Afghanistan: A Short History of Its People and Politics, New York: Taylor & Francis, 2002, 223, 238; Khalilzad, “Soviet‐American Cooperation,” 90; Katz, “Lessons of the Soviet Withdrawal”; Coll, Ghost Wars, 194; Eliot, “Afghanistan in 1989,” 158; Khalilzad, Prospects, 35; Mendelson, “Internal Battle and External Wars,” 335; Minkov and Smolynec, “Part III: Economic Development,” 602‐3n34; Austin Long, Stephanie Pezard, Bryce Loidolt, and Todd Helmus, Locals Rule: Historical Lessons for Creating Local Defense Forces for Afghanistan and Beyond, Santa Monica, CA: Taylor & Francis, 2012, 143.

41. Webber, “Third World,” 702; Weitz, “Moscow's Endgame,” 26; Grau, “Breaking Contact,” 258; Tomsen, Wars of Afghanistan, 392; Katz, “Lessons of the Soviet Withdrawal”; Khalilzad, “Soviet‐American Cooperation,” 83; Oliker, Building Afghanistan's Security Forces, xiv, xix, 7, 43, 78; Grau and Wilhelm, “The Soviet Withdrawal,” 3; Shanker, “With U.S. Set To Leave Afghanistan, Echoes of 1989.”

42. Grau and Wilhelm, “Soviet Withdrawal,” 3.

43. “The Soviet Union and Afghanistan, 1978–1989,” 183–184; Kalinovsky, Long Goodbye, 178, 181; Halliday and Tanin, “Communist Regime,” 1375; Rubin, “Situation in Afghanistan,” 10 (also labeled as 19 in the record); Fivecoat, “Leaving the Graveyard,” 47.

44. Ewans, Afghanistan, 229–230; Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 193n25; Grau, “Breaking Contact,” 241. Najibullah married into a royal clan of the Muhammadzai sub‐tribe of the Barakzai within the Durrani confederation, which was possibly of consequence in his allegiance to the Parcham faction.

45. Kalinovsky, Long Goodbye, 99.

46. KhAD: Khadamat‐e Aetla'ate‐e Dawlati.

47. Scott Mcmichael, “The Soviet‐Afghan War,” in Robin Higham and Frederick W. Kagan, eds, The Military History of the Soviet Union, New York: Taylor & Francis, 2002, 259–274: 266; Grau, “Breaking Contact,” 240–241; Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 178, 193–4; Marshall, Phased Withdrawal, 2; Ewans, Afghanistan, 229; Halliday and Tanin, “Communist Regime,” 1367.

48. Kalinovsky, Long Goodbye, 99.

49. Ibid., 250‐1n30; Thomas H. Johnson and M. Chris Mason, “All Counterinsurgency is Local,” The Atlantic, October 2008, available at: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/print/2008/10/all‐counterinsurgency‐is‐local/306965/, accessed 31 August 2012.

50. US Central Intelligence Agency, “Afghanistan: Kabul Searching for Friends, Influence, and Aid,” Near East and South Asia Review, serial September 7, 1990, Washington, DC, 1990, 9, Declassified, available at: http://www.foia.cia.gov/docs/DOC_0000258768/DOC_0000258768.pdf, accessed 25 October 2012); Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 173, 195–7; Mendelson, “Internal Battle,” 352n92; Halliday and Tanin, “Communist Regime,” 1369; Robinson, “Soviet Hearts‐And‐Minds Operations,” 7; Rubin, “Post‐Cold War,” 478; Khalilzad, Prospects, 25–26; Rais, “Afghanistan after the Soviet Withdrawal,” 124; Tomsen, Wars of Afghanistan, 337; Ewans, Afghanistan, 239; John F. Burns, “Afghans: Now They Blame America,” The New York Times, 4 February 1990, available at: http://www.nytimes.com/1990/02/04/magazine/afghans‐now‐they‐blame‐america.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm, accessed 9 September 2013.

51. US Central Intelligence Agency, “Afghanistan: Kabul,” 9–10; Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 196–197; Coll, Ghost Wars, 190; Ewans, Afghanistan, 239; Rubin, “Post‐Cold War,” 481; Khalilzad, Prospects, 25; Nikolas Gvosdev, “The Soviet Victory that Never Was,” ForeignAffairs.com, 10 December 2009, available at: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65713/nikolas‐k‐gvosdev/the‐soviet‐victory‐that‐never‐was, accessed 24 October 2012; Rais, “Afghanistan after the Soviet Withdrawal,” 124.

52. US Central Intelligence Agency, “Afghanistan: Kabul,” 10; Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 196–197; Rubin, “Post‐Cold War,” 481; Ewans, Afghanistan, 243.

53. Gowher Rizwi, “Endgame in Afghanistan,” The World Today 2, February 1991, 25–9: 26; Rubin, “Post‐Cold War,” 479–480.

54. Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 196.

55. Barnett Rubin, “Political Elites in Afghanistan: Rentier State Building, Rentier State Wrecking,” International Journal of Middle East Studies 1, February 1992, 77–99: 95–6; Rubin, “Post‐Cold War,” 479–481; Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 203; Halliday and Tanin, “Communist Regime,” 1368–1369; Khalilzad, Prospects, 25; Giustozzi, War, 162; Rais, “Afghanistan after the Soviet Withdrawal,” 123–124; Rubin, Fragmentation of Afghanistan, 148, 153; Weitz, “Moscow's Endgame,” 27; Rizwi, “Endgame in Afghanistan,” 26; Anton Minkov and Gregory Smolynec, “4‐D Soviet Style: Defense, Development, Diplomacy, and Disengagement in Afghanistan During the Soviet Period. Part I: State Building,” Journal of Slavic Military Studies 2, 2010, 306–327: 320.

56. US Central Intelligence Agency, “Afghanistan: The War in Perspective,” by Director of Central Intelligence, Special National Intelligence Estimate, serial 37–89 (Washington, DC, 1989), 258, Declassified, in ed. John Prados, ed., The September 11th Sourcebooks, Vol II: Afghanistan: Lessons from the Last War, US Analysis of the Soviet War in Afghanistan: Declassified, Taylor & Francis, 2001, available at: http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB57/us12.pdf, accessed 25 October 2012; Rais, “Afghanistan after the Soviet Withdrawal,” 124; Minkov and Smolynec, “Part III: Economic Development,” 604, n41; Khalilzad, “Soviet‐American Cooperation,” 81; Rubin, “Back to Feudalism,” 421, 444, 446; Rupert, “Afghanistan's Slide,” 771; Halliday and Tanin, “Communist Regime,” 1369; Khalilzad, Prospects, 25–26; “Winning by not losing,” 36; Giustozzi, War, 179; Weitz, “Moscow's Endgame,” 27; “Peace Plans,” Economic and Political Weekly 7–8, 17–24 February 1990, 357: 357.

57. Halliday and Tanin, “Communist Regime,” 1369; Giustozzi, War, 179–10; Khalilzad, “Soviet‐American Cooperation,” 81.

58. Ibid.

59. Eliot, “Afghanistan in 1989,” 159.

60. Rais, “Afghanistan,” 124.

61. Kenneth Katzman, Afghanistan: Post‐Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy, Washington, DC: Taylor & Francis, 3 May 2012, 4; Grau and Wilhelm, “Soviet Withdrawal,” 4; Marshall, Phased Withdrawal, 6–7; Halliday and Tanin, “Communist Regime,” 1365; Kalinovsky, Long Goodbye, 182–183; Giustozzi, War, 185; Ewans, Afghanistan, 241; Gvosdev, “Soviet Victory that Never Was”; Rupert, “Afghanistan's Slide,” 769; Eliot, “Afghanistan in 1989,” 159; Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 201, 228–9; Rubin, “Fragmentation of Afghanistan,” 156–157; Rubin, “Back to Feudalism,” 446; Giustozzi, Afghanistan: Transition Without End, 26; Burns, “Afghans.”

62. Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 228–229.

63. U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, “Afghanistan: Soviet Withdrawal Scenario,” 2; Khalilzad, Prospects, 25; Khalilzad, “Soviet‐American Cooperation,” 79–80; Rubin, “Post‐Cold War,” 480; Rizwi, “Endgame in Afghanistan,” 25; Rupert, “Afghanistan's Slide,” 768–771; Rais, “Afghanistan after the Soviet Withdrawal,” 123; Ali, “Cold War's End,” 41; “Winning by not losing,” 36.

64. “The Soviet Union and Afghanistan, 1978–1989,” 182; Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 195, 203; Halliday and Tanin, “Communist Regime,” 1369–1371; Ewans, Afghanistan, 242–243; Robinson, “Soviet Hearts‐And‐Minds Operations,” 19; Rubin, “Back to Feudalism,” 424.

65. US Central Intelligence Agency, “Afghanistan: After the Coup,” by Director of Central Intelligence, National Intelligence Daily, serial March 27, 1990, Washington, DC, 1990, 14–15, Declassified, available at: http://www.foia.cia.gov/docs/DOC_0000259072/DOC_0000259072.pdf, accessed 25 October 2012; Marshall, Phased Withdrawal, 8; Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 203–204; Tomsen, Wars of Afghanistan, 391; Coll, Ghost Wars, 212–213; Grau and Wilhelm, “Soviet Withdrawal,” 5.

66. US Central Intelligence Agency, “War in Perspective,” 257; Rubin, “Fragmentation of Afghanistan,” 160–161, 166; Tomsen, The Wars of Afghanistan, 337–338; Rubin, “Back to Feudalism,” 421, 424, 446; Rizwi, “Endgame in Afghanistan,” 25; Rupert, “Afghanistan's Slide,” 771; Rais, “Afghanistan after the Soviet Withdrawal,” 123; Burns, “Afghans”; Goodson and Johnson, “Parallels with the Past,” 580; Khalilzad, “Afghanistan After Soviet Military Withdrawal,” 6, 8.

67. US Central Intelligence Agency, “War in Perspective,” 257.

68. Coll, Ghost Wars, 211; Weitz, “Moscow's Endgame,” 31.

69. US Central Intelligence Agency, “After the Coup,” 15.

70. Rubin, “Situation in Afghanistan,” 4, 27–8 (also labeled as 13, 36–37 in the record).

71. Kalinovsky, Long Goodbye, 193.

72. Crile, Charlie Wilson's War, 518.

73. Rizwi, “Endgame in Afghanistan,” 25–26, 29; Rais, “Afghanistan after the Soviet Withdrawal,” 126; Long et al., Locals Rule 143.

74. Rais, “Afghanistan after the Soviet Withdrawal,” 124; Minkov and Smolynec, “Part III: Economic Development,” 603–604.

75. Paul Robinson and Jay Dixon, “Soviet Development Theory and Economic and Technical Assistance to Afghanistan, 1954–1991,” The Historian, 2010, 599–623: 622; Robinson, “Soviet Hearts‐And‐Minds Operations,” 12; Webber, “Third World,” 704; Giustozzi, War, 223–224, 234; Rais, “Afghanistan after the Soviet Withdrawal,” 124–125; Rubin, Fragmentation of Afghanistan, 171; Marshall, Phased Withdrawal, 8; Kalinovsky, Long Goodbye, 199; Minkov and Smolynec, “Part III: Economic Development,” 603–604.

76. Shah M. Tarzi, “Afghanistan in 1992: A Hobbesian State of Nature,” Asian Survey 2, February 1993, 165–174: 172; Rubin, “Political Elites,” 96; Weitz, “Moscow's Endgame,” 32–33; David Painter, The Cold War: An International History, London: Taylor & Francis, 1999, 109; Rais, “Afghanistan after the Soviet Withdrawal,” 124; Corwin, Doomed in Afghanistan 158; Webber, “Third World,” 703; Kalinovsky, Long Goodbye, 200–201; Tomsen, Wars of Afghanistan, 441–442, 448; Rubin, Fragmentation of Afghanistan, 152, 266–7; Rubin, “Post‐Cold War,” 483–484; Giustozzi, Afghanistan: Transition Without End, 26; Ali, “Cold War's End,” 41; Long et al., Locals Rule, 143; Halliday, “Soviet Foreign Policymaking,” 680, 688.

77. Khalilzad, Prospects, 36; Webber, “The Third World,” 703–704; Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 237; Rubin, Fragmentation of Afghanistan, 152; Rubin, “Political Elites,” 96; Giustozzi, War, Politics and Society, 237; Kalinovsky, Long Goodbye, 189; Rubin, “Post‐Cold War,” 484, 486.

78. Rais, “Afghanistan after the Soviet Withdrawal,” 124; Tomsen, Wars of Afghanistan, 440, 462; Grau, “Breaking Contact,” 260; Goodson and Johnson, “Parallels with the Past,” 580; Giustozzi, Afghanistan: Transition Without End, 26; Weitz, “Moscow's Endgame,” 32–33; Kalinovsky, A Long Goodbye, 201–204; Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 237; Shanker, “With U.S. Set To Leave Afghanistan, Echoes of 1989”; Webber, “The Third World,” 703–704.

79. “Afghan Guerrillas Claim Major Northern Victory,” Associated Press, 15 May 1991, available at: http://www.apnewsarchive.com/1991/Afghan‐Guerrillas‐Claim‐Major‐Northern‐Victory/id‐8ae313e5e93a84422fe18ba83e067cd1, accessed 20 December 2012; Tomsen, Wars of Afghanistan, 432–433; Giustozzi, War, Politics and Society, 235–236; Coll, Ghost Wars, 227.

80. Halliday and Tanin, “Communist Regime,” 1368; Marshall, Phased Withdrawal, 1, 8; Kalinovsky, Long Goodbye, 206; Crile, Charlie Wilson's War, 519; Webber, “The Third World,” 704.

81. Tarzi, “Afghanistan in 1992,” 165–166, 172; Kalinovsky, Long Goodbye, 208; Rubin, “Post‐Cold War,” 485.

82. Corwin, Doomed in Afghanistan, 62; Coll, Ghost Wars, 234–235; Tarzi, “Afghanistan in 1992,” 165; Khalilzad, “Anarchy in Afghanistan,” 43; Ali, “Cold War's End,” 41.

83. Halliday, “Soviet Foreign Policymaking,” 688; Halliday and Tanin, “Communist Regime,” 1368–1370; Giustozzi, Afghanistan: Transition Without End, 26–27; Long et al., Locals Rule, 145; Coll, Ghost Wars, 234; Kolhatkar and Ingalls, Bleeding Afghanistan, 17; Marshall, Phased Withdrawal, 9; Kalinovsky, Long Goodbye, 206–207; Gvosdev, “Soviet Victory that Never Was”; Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 237; Khalilzad, “Anarchy in Afghanistan,” 43; Fivecoat, “Leaving the Graveyard,” 47; Rubin, Fragmentation of Afghanistan, 269–270; Cordovez and Harrison, Out of Afghanistan, 386; Webber, “Third World,” 704.

84. Corwin, Doomed in Afghanistan, 1, 44, 54, 62, 169–70; Tomsen, Wars of Afghanistan, 4–5, 7, 479; Katzman, Post‐Taliban Governance, 4; Coll, Ghost Wars, 235; Rubin, “Post‐Cold War,” 469, 487–8; Tarzi, “Afghanistan in 1992,” 166; Long et al., Locals Rule, 145; Khalilzad, “Anarchy in Afghanistan,” 43.

85. Ahmed Rashid, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia, New Haven, CT: Taylor & Francis, 2001, 49; Corwin, Doomed in Afghanistan, x; Rubin, “Post‐Cold War,” 488; Ewans, Afghanistan, 247; Long et al., Locals Rule, 145; Khalilzad, “Anarchy in Afghanistan,” 43; Webber, “Third World,” 705; Halliday and Tanin, “Communist Regime,” 1370.

86. Rubin, “Post‐Cold War,” 488–489; Ewans, Afghanistan, 247–248.

87. Grau, “Breaking Contact,” 260; Rubin, “Post‐Cold War,” 490–491.

88. Tarzi, “Afghanistan in 1992,” 165, 173.

89. Rashid, Taliban, 49.

90. Khalilzad, Prospects, 35; Kalinovsky, Long Goodbye, 191–192, 204; Khalilzad, “Soviet‐American Cooperation,” 74, 90; Tomsen, Wars of Afghanistan, 287; Cordovez and Harrison, Out of Afghanistan, 6–7.

91. Burns, “Afghans”; Weitz, “Moscow's Endgame,” 31; Khalilzad, “Soviet‐American Cooperation,” 72; Tomsen, Wars of Afghanistan, 394–395, 710; Cordovez and Harrison, Out of Afghanistan, 6–7, 268; Rubin, “Post‐Cold War,” 482.

92. Neamatollah Nojumi, The Rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan: Mass Mobilization, Civil War, and the Future of the Region, New York: Taylor & Francis, 2002, 76.

93. Corwin, Doomed in Afghanistan, 2, 8–9; Khalilzad, “Soviet‐American Cooperation,” 78, 89; Burns, “Afghans”; Rais, “Afghanistan after the Soviet Withdrawal,” 124; Rubin, “Post‐Cold War,” 478.

94. US Central Intelligence Agency, “Afghanistan: Kabul,” 9; Eliot, “Afghanistan in 1989,” 160; Goodson and Johnson, “Parallels with the Past,” 595–596; Thomas Johnson, “Déjà vu: Afghanistan prepares for another withdrawal,” Jane's Intelligence Review, October 2011, 8–13: 10.

95. Kalinovsky, Long Goodbye, 170, 178–80, 183, 187, 195.

96. Ibid., 185–186, 200.

97. Marshall, Phased Withdrawal, 1, 9; Grau, “Breaking Contact,” 253, 260; Kalinovsky, Long Goodbye, 152; Giustozzi, War, 176, 178.

98. Ibid., 176.

99. Dexter Filkins, “After America: Will Civil War Hit Afghanistan when the U.S. Leaves?” The New Yorker, 9 July 2012, available at: http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/07/09/120709fa_fact_filkins, accessed 1 November 2012; Weitz, “Moscow's Endgame,” 25; Grau and Wilhelm, “Soviet Withdrawal,” 4, 6; Rubin, “Post‐Cold War,” 481; Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 201; Grau, “Breaking Contact,” 258–259; Rubin, “Back to Feudalism,” 421; Giustozzi, War, Politics and Society, 177; Tomsen, Wars of Afghanistan, 329–330; Rais, “Afghanistan after the Soviet Withdrawal,” 123; Rupert, “Afghanistan's Slide,” 760, 768, 770–1; Rizwi, “Endgame in Afghanistan,” 25.

100. Moreover, at the individual level, Giustozzi tracked a fall in active Mujahidin numbers from roughly 85,000 at the conclusion of the Soviet withdrawal to 55,000 by the end of 1989, a 35 percent drop (see Giustozzi, War, 167, 178, 187–9, 779 table-47; see further Oliker, Building Afghanistan's Security Forces, 78; Minkov and Smolynec, “Part III: Economic Development,” 604n41; “Peace Plans,” 357).

101. Katz, “Lessons of the Soviet Withdrawal.”

102. Burns, “Afghans”; Crile, Charlie Wilson's War, 171–172; Rubin, “Fragmentation of Afghanistan,” 158; Weitz, “Moscow's Endgame,” 35.

103. Coll, Ghost Wars, 217; Tomsen, Wars of Afghanistan, 280; Weitz, “Moscow's Endgame,” 28–29; Rashid, Taliban, 175.

104. Smith, “Lessons Learned or Mistakes Repeated”; Oliker, Building Afghanistan's Security Forces, 59–61, 71–72.

105. Ibid., 72; Grau, “Breaking Contact,” 258; Minkov and Smolynec, “Part I: State Building,” 326; Weitz, “Moscow's Endgame,” 26; Rizwi, “Endgame in Afghanistan,” 25; Marshall, Phased Withdrawal, 7–8; Giustozzi, War, 85; Shanker, “With U.S. Set To Leave Afghanistan, Echoes of 1989.”

106. Marshall, Phased Withdrawal, 7–8; Rizwi, “Endgame in Afghanistan,” 25; Giustozzi, War, 114; Weitz, “Moscow's Endgame,” 26.

107. Rizwi, “Endgame in Afghanistan,” 25.

108. Oliker, Building Afghanistan's Security Forces, 79.

109. Grau, “Breaking Contact,” 244; Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 201; Rubin, “Back to Feudalism,” 422; Rubin, Fragmentation of Afghanistan, 172; Rizwi, “Endgame in Afghanistan,” 25; Giustozzi, War, 76, 104; Rubin, “Situation in Afghanistan,” 27 (also labeled as 36 in the record).

110. U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, “Afghanistan: Soviet Withdrawal Scenario,” 2; “The Soviet Union and Afghanistan, 1978–1989,” 181; US Army, “Lessons from the War,” 14, 27; Mcmichael, “Soviet‐Afghan War,” 268–269; Grau, Bear Went Over the Mountain, 203–204; Smith, “Lessons Learned or Mistakes Repeated.”

111. US Defense Intelligence Agency, “Afghanistan: Soviet Withdrawal Scenario,” 2.

112. US Army, “Lessons from the War,” 29.

113. US Central Intelligence Agency, “After the Coup,” 14; Forrest L. Marion, “The Destruction and Rebuilding of the Afghan Air Force, 1989–2009,” Air Power History 2, 2010, 22–31: 24–5; Fivecoat, “Leaving the Graveyard,” 50; Giustozzi, War, 108, 272; Katz, “Lessons of the Soviet Withdrawal”; Grau and Wilhelm, “Soviet Withdrawal,” 5; Marshall, Phased Withdrawal, 9; Oliker, Building Afghanistan's Security Forces, 49; Catherine Dale, War in Afghanistan: Strategy, Operations, and Issues for Congress, Washington, DC: Taylor & Francis, 9 March 2011, 40.

114. Oliker, Building Afghanistan's Security Forces, 59, 68–9; Antonio Giustozzi, “Afghanistan: The Problems of Creating a New Afghan Army—and the critical dangers of failure!,” United Kingdom: International Industrial Information, Ltd, 2002, 16, available at: http://www.newnations.com/specialreports/pdf/af.01.04.03.pdf, accessed 20 September 2012; Dale, War in Afghanistan, 45; Marshall, Phased Withdrawal, 6, 9–10.

115. Ali A. Jalali, “Rebuilding Afghanistan's National Army,” Parameters 3, 2002, 72–86: 72–3; Oliker, Building Afghanistan's Security Forces, xxi.

116. Rubin defines Qawm as a social solidarity unit in Afghanistan based on kinship, location, or occupation; see Rubin, Fragmentation of Afghanistan, 25, 148, 172.

117. Minkov and Smolynec, “Part I: State Building,” 324; Oliker, Building Afghanistan's Security Forces, 57; Long et al., Locals Rule, 142.

118. Minkov and Smolynec, “Part I: State Building,” 324; Rubin, “Fragmentation of Afghanistan,” 161; Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 205; Giustozzi, War, Politics and Society, 214–215; Oliker, Building Afghanistan's Security Forces, 57–58.

119. Ibid., 57–58, 93; Minkov and Smolynec, “Part I: State Building,” 324; Rubin, “Fragmentation of Afghanistan,” 161; Rubin, Fragmentation of Afghanistan, 160–161, 265; Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 205–206; Giustozzi, War, 171–172, 189, 195, 226–7; Giustozzi, “Afghanistan: The Problems,” 12–13.

120. Oliker, Building Afghanistan's Security Forces, 58; Giustozzi, War, Politics and Society, 213, 219–20.

121. Oliker, Building Afghanistan's Security Forces, 58.

122. Dorronsoro, Revolution Unending, 237.

123. Giustozzi, “Afghanistan: The Problems,” 13–14; Giustozzi, War, 216–218, 222, 226.

124. “The Soviet Union and Afghanistan, 1978–1989,” 182.

125. Ibid., 182–183; Oliker, Building Afghanistan's Security Forces, 74–75; Grau and Wilhelm, “Soviet Withdrawal,” 3.

126. Rubin, “Political Elites,” 78.

127. Minkov and Smolynec, “Part III: Economic Development,” 597, 599.

128. Paul Robinson, “Russian Lessons: We Aren't the First to Try Nation‐Building in Afghanistan,” The American Conservative 11, 2009, 30–32: 31; Robinson and Dixon, “Soviet Development Theory,” 612–613; Minkov and Smolynec, “Part III: Economic Development,” 605, 607, 614–15; Rubin, Fragmentation of Afghanistan, 162–164; Giustozzi, War, 234, 237–38; Rais, “Afghanistan after the Soviet Withdrawal,” 125; Artemy Kalinovsky, “Afghanistan: More Echoes of the Soviet Experience,” London School of Economics Ideas, Entry posted 15 October 2010, available at: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/ideas/2010/10/afghanistan‐more‐echoes‐of‐the‐soviet‐experience/, accessed 25 October 2012; Webber, “Third World,” 702; Robinson, “Soviet Hearts‐And‐Minds Operations,” 12; Barnett Rubin, “The Political Economy of War and Peace in Afghanistan,” World Development 10, 2000, 1789–1803: 1792–3.

129. US Central Intelligence Agency, “Afghanistan: Kabul,” 9; Rubin, Fragmentation of Afghanistan, 149, 161, 163–4, 170; Minkov and Smolynec, “Part III: Economic Development,” 603–604, 611, 613–15; Rizwi, “Endgame in Afghanistan,” 26; Rubin, “Political Economy,” 1792–1793; Robinson and Dixon, “Soviet Development Theory,” 622.

130. Tomsen, Wars of Afghanistan, 393.

131. Giustozzi, War, 223–224, 232, 236.

132. Rizwi, “Endgame in Afghanistan,” 26; Minkov and Smolynec, “Part III: Economic Development,” 614; Nojumi, Rise of the Taliban, 212; Giustozzi, War, 237–238; Rubin, Fragmentation of Afghanistan, 175, 265; Weitz, “Moscow's Endgame,” 29–30.

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Shane A. Smith

Shane A. Smith is a Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Air Force. He has an MA in Security Studies from the Naval Postgraduate School and an MA in History from East Tennessee State University. His articles have previously appeared in The Historian and The Culture & Conflict Review.