Age-Structured Mark–Recapture Analysis: A Virtual-Population-Analysis-Based Model for Analyzing Age-Structured Capture–Recapture Data

Abstract

We present a new model to estimate capture probabilities, survival, abundance, and recruitment using traditional Jolly–Seber capture–recapture methods within a standard fisheries virtual population analysis framework. This approach compares the numbers of marked and unmarked fish at age captured in each year of sampling with predictions based on estimated vulnerabilities and abundance in a likelihood function. Recruitment to the earliest age at which fish can be tagged is estimated by using a virtual population analysis method to back-calculate the expected numbers of unmarked fish at risk of capture. By using information from both marked and unmarked animals in a standard fisheries age structure framework, this approach is well suited to the sparse data situations common in long-term capture–recapture programs with variable sampling effort.