Predicting performance on the United States Medical Licensing Examination Step 1 and Step 2 Clinical Knowledge using results from previous examinations

Figures & data

Table 1 Gender distribution, mean scores, and SD of students during USMLE Step 1, NBME CBSE, USMLE Step 2 CK, and NBME Medicine CSSE

Examination	Male	Female	Total
USMLE Step 1
n (%)	345 (48)	374 (52)	719 (100)
Mean	225.2a	218.7a	220.5
SD	18.9	19.2	9.2
Pass, n (%)	328 (95.1)b	343 (91.7)b	671 (93.3)
Fail, n (%)	17 (4.9)	31 (8.3)	48 (6.7)
NBME CBSE
n (%)	344 (47.9)	374 (52.1)	718 (100)
Mean	66.5c	61.6c	63.8
SD	9.3	8.4	9.2
USMLE Step 2 CK
n (%)	258 (45.7)	306 (54.3)	564 (100)
Mean	236.2d	235.2d	235.5
SD	17.7	17.1	17.5
Pass, n (%)	245 (95)e	296 (96.7)e	541 (95.9)
Fail, n (%)	13 (5.0)	10 (3.3)	23 (4.1)
NBME Medicine CSSE
n (%)	248 (45.4)	298 (54.6)	546 (100.0)
Mean	77.8f	77.1f	76.8
SD	8.3	7.7	8.3

Notes:

a P≤0.0001.

b P=0.075.

c P≤0.0001.

d P=0.5.

e P=0.393.

f P=0.331.

Abbreviations: CBSE, Comprehensive Basic Science Examination; CK, Clinical Knowledge; CSSE, Clinical Science Subject Examination; NBME, National Board of Medical Examiners; USMLE, United States Medical Licensing Examination.

Figure 1 Score in the NBME CBSE vs score in the USMLE Step 1.

Notes: r=0.730, P≤0.001.
Abbreviations: CBSE, Comprehensive Basic Science Examination; NBME, National Board of Medical Examiners; USMLE, United States Medical Licensing Examination.

Figure 2 Score in the NBME Medicine CSSE vs score in the USMLE Step 2 CK.

Notes: r=0.572, P≤0.001.
Abbreviations: CK, Clinical Knowledge; CSSE, Clinical Science Subject Examination; NBME, National Board of Medical Examiners; USMLE, United States Medical Licensing Examination.

Figure 3 Score in the USMLE Step 1 vs score in the USMLE Step 2 CK.

Notes: r=0.698, P≤0.0001.
Abbreviations: CK, Clinical Knowledge; USMLE, United States Medical Licensing Examination.