Timed Up and Go Test can predict recurrent falls: a longitudinal study of the community-dwelling elderly in China

Figures & data

Table 1 The baseline’s characteristics of study participants (no-fall group, one-fall group, recurrent-fall group) during the follow-up period

Variable	Total	No-fall group	One-fall group	Recurrent-falls group	P-value
	n=541	n=428	n=76	n=37
Demographics
Age (years)	67.4±5.6	66.9±5.5	68.3±6.1*	70.6±5.2*	<0.001
Gender (male/female)	234/307	198/230	26/50*	10/27*	0.022
Widowed (%)	16.1	14.6	20.1	19.4	0.418
Walking aid (%)	0.4	0.0	1.3*	2.8*	0.001
Living alone (%)	11.1	11.3	7.8	13.9	0.580
Fall history (%)	9.3	6.8	17.1*	22.2*	<0.001
Illiterate (%)	43.3	43.9	40.8	41.7	0.862
Drinking (%)	37.2	37.1	39.5	33.3	0.818
Smoking (%)	51.9	50.9	52.6	61.1	0.497
Objective parameters
Grip/weight (kg/kg)	0.37±0.11	0.38±0.11	0.35±0.10*	0.34±0.12*	0.011
4-meter walking test (m/s)	1.01±0.21	1.02±0.21	0.98±0.22*	0.90±0.20*	0.003
TUGT (s)	10.3±2.5	10.1±2.3	10.6±2.4*	12.5±4.1*,**	<0.001
BMI (kg/m^2)	25.7±3.5	25.7±3.5	25.7±3.3	25.4±3.6	0.889
IPAQ (MET-min/week)	3,909.9±5,910.2	4,130.3±6,346.9	3,152.9±3,824.9	2,900.9±3,542.9	0.236
Depression GDS ≥11 (%)	9.5	7.5	11.8*	27.8*	<0.001
Diseases
Diabetes (%)	9.3	7.7	13.2*	19.4*	0.031
Hypertension (%)	45.2	46.0	44.7	36.1	0.517
Hyperlipidemia (%)	6.7	6.1	10.5	5.6	0.350
Heart disease (%)	23.2	22.1	26.3	30.6	0.404
Peptic ulcer (%)	6.3	6.1	5.3	11.1	0.455
Stroke (%)	7.2	6.1	14.5*	5.6*	0.032
Gout (%)	2.2	2.3	1.3	2.8	0.832
Cancer (%)	1.3	1.4	1.3	0.0	0.774
Kidney disease (%)	2.8	2.8	2.6	2.8	0.996
Hepatic disease (%)	1.3	1.4	0.0	2.8	0.438
Biliary tract disease (%)	4.8	4.5	5.3	8.3	0.574
Thyroid disease (%)	1.9	2.1	1.3	0.0	0.620
Osteoarthritis (%)	25.8	25.4	22.4	38.9	0.155
Anemia (%)	1.3	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.394

Notes: Data are presented as means ± SD for age, body mass index (BMI), grip strength, Timed Up and Go Test (TUGT), 4-meter walking test, and International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). All other variables are in percentages;

* P<0.05 versus no-fall group;

** P<0.05 versus one-fall group; P-value of the ANOVA among the three groups in the table.

Abbreviations: GDS, Geriatric Depression Scale; MET-min/week, metabolic equivalent task minutes per week.

Table 2 Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval of baseline TUGT, 4-meter walking test, and grip strength for any-fall group and recurrent-fall group during the follow-up period

Model	Any-fall group		Recurrent-fall group
	Non-fallers (n=428)	Fallers (n=113)	Non-fallers (n=504)	Fallers (n=37)
Grip strength
No adjustment	1.000 (reference)	0.968 (0.945–0.991)*	1.000 (reference)	0.957 (0.917–0.999)*
Adjusted for age and gender	1.000 (reference)	1.000 (1.000–1.000)	1.000 (reference)	1.000 (1.000–1.001)
4-meter walking test
No adjustment	1.000 (reference)	0.272 (0.100–0.739)*	1.000 (reference)	0.037 (0.006–0.214)*
Adjusted for age and gender	1.000 (reference)	1.005 (0.999–1.010)	1.000 (reference)	1.004 (0.994–1.013)
TUGT
No adjustment	1.000 (reference)	1.098 (1.039–1.161)*	1.000 (reference)	1.181 (1.094–1.275)*
Adjusted for age and gender	1.000 (reference)	1.070 (1.003–1.142)*	1.000 (reference)	1.160 (1.061–1.268)*

Note:

* P<0.05 versus same group referent values.

Abbreviation: TUGT, Timed Up and Go Test.

Table 3 Diagnostic value of baseline TUGT, 4-meter walking test, and grip strength measures for any fall and recurrent fall

Models	Prediction of any falls		Prediction of recurrent falls
	n=113/541		n=37/541
	AUCa value	95% CI	AUCa value	95% CI
Grip strength
Grip strengthb	0.512	0.449–0.574	0.548	0.429–0.666
Grip strengthc	0.602	0.542–0.663	0.612	0.511–0.712
4-meter walking test
4-meter walking testb	0.563	0.504–0.622	0.542	0.445–0.639
4-meter walking testc	0.586	0.526–0.647	0.680	0.593–0.768
TUGT
TUGTb	0.607	0.549–0.665	0.688	0.602–0.773
TUGTc	0.642	0.584–0.700	0.733	0.645–0.821

Notes:

a Areas under the curve (AUCs) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for grip strength, 4-meter walking test, and TUGT for fallers versus non-fallers and recurrent fallers versus non-fallers;

b no adjustment;

c adjusted for gender and age.

Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; TUGT, Timed Up and Go Test.

Figure 1 ROC curve of TUGT as predictor of recurrent falls among elderly individuals (area under ROC curve =0.733 [95% CI: 0.645–0.821]).

Abbreviations: ROC, receiver operating characteristic; TUGT, Timed Up and Go Test; CI, confidence interval.