Analysis of High-Risk Factors Associated with the Progression of Subaneurysmal Aorta to Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm in Rural Area in China

Figures & data

Figure 1 Study flow chart.

Table 1 Basic Demographics of Patients

Age	60	61	62	63	64	65	Total
Screening
2.6cm	36	39	32	36	34	29	206
2.7cm	14	32	36	42	35	31	190
2.8cm	18	30	35	47	42	44	216
2.9cm	16	24	33	42	51	58	224
Total	84	125	136	167	162	162	836
Rescreening
SAA	78	119	121	149	156	142	765
AAA	21	17	27	53	43	99	260
Smoke pack/day
<1pack	9	4	8	6	2	13	42
1–2packs	55	36	46	53	41	82	313
2–3packs	56	17	49	51	51	83	307
>3packs	14	8	10	20	9	24	85
Start smoking
<20age	20	4	26	31	21	21	123
20–25age	60	13	56	48	24	86	287
26–30age	44	30	26	45	50	75	270
>30age	10	18	5	7	8	19	67
H
Norm	50	20	23	20	22	38	173
Light	47	25	27	48	22	65	234
Medium	26	10	46	47	20	60	209
Heavy	9	6	10	12	25	29	91
Fluctuate	2	4	7	3	14	10	40
AAA knowledge
Yes	2	2	3	1	2	1	11
No	132	63	110	129	101	201	736
Intervene treatment
Accept	38	40	94	93	92	178	535
Refuse	66	25	39	27	11	44	212
Refuse treatment reason
Expensive price	110	60	103	100	90	190	653
Other	24	5	10	30	13	12	94

Table 2 The Correlation Between Continuous Variables and the Progression of SAA to AAA

item	Standard Deviation	Standard Error	p
Age
61	0.66158	0.59795	0.268548
62	2.03359	0.49235	3.62e-05**
63	2.96665	0.47064	2.91e-10**
64	2.19817	0.48314	5.37e-06**
65	2.4582	0.44337	2.95e-08**
Abdominal aorta diameter
2.7cm	−2.09268	0.63341	0.000954**
2.8cm	−0.78781	0.575	0.170652
2.9cm	0.38843	0.60257	0.519175
Smoking
1–2pack	−0.13204	0.50269	0.792815
2–3pack	0.03557	0.50663	0.94402
>3pack	0.46208	0.54015	0.392291
Age of smoking initiation
20–25	−0.61222	0.29853	0.040290*
26–30	0.54992	0.29647	0.063614
>30	2.87224	0.51731	2.82e-08**
Degree of hypertension
Mild	0.55412	0.31496	0.07852
Moderate	2.25794	0.36163	4.27e-10**
Severe	2.91646	0.41738	2.80e-12**
Blood pressure fluctuations	1.88942	0.54409	0.000515**
Knowing	−0.32664	0.25788	0.205282
Intervention	0.24132	0.28624	0.399183
Economic factors	0.32682	0.22157	0.140202

Note: *P <0.05 is considered to be statistically significant, **P <0.01 is considered to be obvious statistically significant, “e” means exponent.

Figure 2 The correlation between variables and the progress of SAA to AAA. Multivariate analysis of the high-risk factors of SAA progressing to AAA. (A) Verification diagram of SAA-related risk factors; (B) screening diagram of SAA-related risk factors.

Table 3 The Probability of Developing AAA with the Total Score of Risk Factors

Total Risk Factor Score	Probability of Progressing to AAA (%)
127	10
150	20
165	30
178	40
189	50
201	60
213	70
228	80
251	90

Figure 3 Clinical prediction model prediction score. The C-index was performed to verify the predictive ability.

Table 4 The Predictive Ability of the Verification Model

Model	Likelyhood	Discrimination Ratio Test	Rank Discrim. Indexes	Indexes
Obs	747	LR chi2 329.88	R2 0.492	c 0.883
0	487	d.f. 21	g 2.388	Dxy 0.744
1		Pr(>chi2) <0.0001	gr 10.887	Gamma 0.744

Figure 4 Verification of the predictive ability of the model. The Nomogram-predicted probability of AAA were determined by Calibration chart.