External Validation of Models for Predicting Disability in Community-Dwelling Older People in the Netherlands: A Comparative Study

Figures & data

Table 1 Characteristics Predictors

	D1		D2		D3		D4		D5
	n	%	n	%	n	%	n	%	n	%
Unexplained weight loss
no	392	92.5	1429	95.8	363	91.4	626	94.8	102	78.5
Yes	32	7.5	63	4.2	34	8.6	34	5.2	28	21.5
Difficulty in walking
no	223	52.6	1129	75.7	168	42.3	485	73.5	16	12.3
Yes	201	47.4	363	24.3	229	57.7	175	26.5	114	87.7
Difficulty in maintaining balance
no	276	65.1	1298	87	281	70.8	564	85.5	36	27.7
Yes	148	34.9	194	13	116	29.2	96	14.5	94	72.3
Poor hearing
no	270	63.7	1179	79	268	67.5	513	77.7	82	63.1
Yes	154	36.3	313	21	129	32.5	147	22.3	48	36.9
Poor vision
no	330	77.8	1356	90.9	331	83.4	599	90.8	94	72.3
Yes	94	22.2	136	9.1	66	16.6	61	9.2	36	27.7
Lack of strength in the hands
no	284	67	1210	81.1	264	66.5	543	82.3	58	44.6
Yes	140	33	282	18.9	133	33.5	117	17.7	72	55.4
Physical tiredness
no	238	56.1	1046	70.1	141	35.5	437	66.2	27	20.8
Yes	186	43.9	446	29.9	256	64.5	223	33.8	103	79.2
Problems with memory
No	386	91	1434	96.1	365	91.9	631	95.6	106	81.5
Yes	38	9	58	3.9	32	8.1	29	4.4	24	18.5
Feeling down
no	262	61.8	855	57.3	163	41.1	417	63.2	42	32.3
Yes	162	38.2	637	42.7	234	58.9	243	36.8	88	67.7
Feeling nervous or anxious
no	296	69.8	1066	71.4	216	54.4	469	71.1	58	44.6
Yes	128	30.2	426	28.6	181	45.6	191	28.9	72	55.4
Unable to cope with problems
no	365	86.1	1327	88.9	321	80.9	555	84.1	92	70.8
Yes	59	13.9	165	11.1	76	19.1	105	15.9	38	29.2
Living alone
no	213	50.2	1063	71.2	243	61.2	443	67.1	29	22.3
Yes	211	49.8	429	28.8	154	38.8	217	32.9	101	77.7
Lack of social relations
no	169	39.9	726	48.7	142	35.8	297	45	26	20
Yes	255	60.1	766	51.3	255	64.2	363	55	104	80
Lack of social support
no	357	84.2	1294	86.7	300	75.6	558	84.5	103	79.2
Yes	67	15.8	198	13.3	97	24.4	102	15.5	27	20.8

Notes: D1=Gemeente Roosendaal 2008. D2=Seniorenbarometer 2009. D3=Seniorenbarometer 2010. D4=Seniorenbarometer 2012. D5=Zonnehuisgroep Amstelland 2015.

Table 2 Characteristics GARS Scores

GARS Score	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5
Minimum	18	18	18	18	18
25% quartile	19	18	22	18	32
Median	24	19	27	19	41
Mean	26.7	22.3	29.8	21.9	42.7
75% quartile	31	24	35	22	55
Maximum	67	72	63	69	70

Notes: D1=Gemeente Roosendaal 2008. D2=Seniorenbarometer 2009. D3=Seniorenbarometer 2010. D4=Seniorenbarometer 2012. D5=Zonnehuisgroep Amstelland 2015.

Table 3 Performance Characteristic Models

Development					Validation					Validation					Validation					Validation
D	b0	b1	r	rmse	D	b0	b1	r	rmse	D	b0	b1	r	rmse	D	b0	b1	r	rmse	D	b0	b1	r	rmse
GLM
1	0.00	1.00	0.66	7.14	2	−0.32	0.97	0.64	5.64	3	2.27	1.00	0.53	8.24	4	0.41	0.90	0.63	5.65	5	−7.41	1.53	0.56	10.82
2	0.00	1.00	0.66	5.51	1	1.88	0.97	0.64	7.26	3	0.72	1.10	0.56	8.06	4	0.47	0.95	0.65	5.49	5	−11.60	1.71	0.58	10.62
3	0.00	1.00	0.58	7.93	1	2.25	0.86	0.63	7.36	2	1.04	0.85	0.64	5.59	4	1.48	0.81	0.64	5.57	5	−13.26	1.61	0.57	10.75
4	0.00	1.00	0.66	5.44	1	2.37	0.98	0.63	7.37	2	0.00	1.03	0.65	5.56	3	1.31	1.11	0.54	8.16	5	−11.88	1.77	0.59	10.58
5	0.00	1.00	0.64	10.03	1	10.97	0.50	0.61	7.49	2	9.05	0.51	0.61	5.77	3	11.57	0.54	0.51	8.36	4	9.08	0.48	0.61	5.73
SVM
1	−7.27	1.38	0.65	7.22	2	−7.15	1.33	0.64	5.62	3	−8.65	1.51	0.53	8.25	4	−6.56	1.27	0.64	5.59	5	−30.41	2.53	0.59	10.60
2	−7.66	1.45	0.66	5.46	1	−5.25	1.40	0.64	7.29	3	−6.27	1.53	0.55	8.13	4	−6.76	1.38	0.66	5.46	5	−18.43	2.24	0.55	10.92
3	−22.72	1.89	0.57	8.01	1	−17.35	1.64	0.63	7.36	2	−18.74	1.63	0.65	5.58	4	−17.56	1.56	0.65	5.53	5	−50.62	3.07	0.58	10.71
4	−16.10	1.89	0.66	5.45	1	−15.58	1.96	0.63	7.35	2	−17.10	1.97	0.65	5.56	3	−19.40	2.22	0.56	8.08	5	−38.53	3.31	0.56	10.85
5	−147.30	4.58	0.60	10.48	1	−91.28	2.99	0.61	7.50	2	−95.84	3.07	0.60	5.82	3	−79.84	2.77	0.43	8.76	4	−93.77	3.00	0.61	5.74
NN
1	−0.20	1.01	0.79	5.76	2	6.76	0.65	0.53	6.20	3	16.16	0.49	0.38	8.99	4	6.64	0.64	0.52	6.19	5	21.77	0.62	0.34	12.31
2	0.08	1.00	0.85	3.90	1	15.43	0.43	0.45	8.43	3	20.37	0.35	0.32	9.20	4	9.84	0.54	0.50	6.28	5	30.86	0.34	0.31	12.47
3	0.42	0.99	0.73	6.68	1	10.26	0.56	0.46	8.40	2	3.52	0.72	0.55	6.08	4	4.19	0.67	0.55	6.06	5	23.14	0.55	0.38	12.14
4	−0.06	1.00	0.91	2.95	1	16.60	0.39	0.45	8.43	2	10.93	0.51	0.53	6.17	3	19.92	0.37	0.41	8.88	5	36.21	0.20	0.19	12.86
5	−0.46	1.01	0.85	6.86	1	17.92	0.29	0.46	8.39	2	16.13	0.25	0.44	6.56	3	22.20	0.23	0.31	9.24	4	15.45	0.26	0.47	6.39
RP
1	0.00	1.00	0.65	7.20	2	−0.79	0.97	0.61	5.77	3	6.96	0.83	0.50	8.44	4	−0.77	0.94	0.63	5.65	5	13.37	0.89	0.40	12.02
2	0.00	1.00	0.67	5.42	1	7.22	0.76	0.59	7.63	3	6.25	0.91	0.55	8.13	4	1.31	0.92	0.64	5.59	5	12.44	0.95	0.52	11.18
3	0.00	1.00	0.63	7.51	1	1.86	0.86	0.56	7.82	2	−3.34	0.97	0.60	5.82	4	−1.78	0.89	0.59	5.85	5	7.96	0.99	0.51	11.27
4	0.00	1.00	0.68	5.29	1	5.84	0.85	0.59	7.63	2	0.31	1.02	0.63	5.68	3	7.25	0.90	0.54	8.20	5	8.79	1.08	0.50	11.35
5	0.00	1.00	0.67	9.78	1	7.78	0.55	0.55	7.87	2	1.51	0.70	0.60	5.82	3	9.67	0.59	0.51	8.33	4	2.55	0.65	0.60	5.78
RF
1	2.84	0.89	0.57	7.76	2	−2.65	1.05	0.65	5.57	3	2.70	0.97	0.50	8.40	4	−2.27	1.01	0.65	5.51	5	2.02	1.24	0.47	11.57
2	1.04	0.95	0.64	5.63	1	4.94	0.84	0.64	7.27	3	6.65	0.88	0.53	8.21	4	0.05	0.97	0.67	5.36	5	7.66	1.06	0.51	11.28
3	1.69	0.94	0.53	8.23	1	1.96	0.85	0.59	7.63	2	−0.80	0.89	0.61	5.77	4	−0.49	0.85	0.62	5.71	5	−5.62	1.36	0.57	10.72
4	1.76	0.92	0.61	5.73	1	4.15	0.91	0.63	7.32	2	−0.53	1.05	0.66	5.48	3	6.99	0.89	0.54	8.18	5	4.85	1.20	0.53	11.10
5	4.94	0.88	0.47	11.54	1	2.11	0.70	0.59	7.60	2	−1.02	0.76	0.62	5.74	3	3.15	0.75	0.54	8.15	4	−0.95	0.73	0.64	5.59

Notes: D1=Gemeente Roosendaal 2008. D2=Seniorenbarometer 2009. D3=Seniorenbarometer 2010. D4=Seniorenbarometer 2012 D5=Zonnehuisgroep Amstelland 2015 b0=calibration intercept, b1=calibration slope, r=correlation coefficient, rmse=root mean squared error.

Data Sharing Statement

The data sets used and analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.