Comparative Analysis of Three Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction Models in Individuals Aged 75 and Older

Figures & data

Table 1 Predicted and Observed Risks of ASCVD

Items	Men			Women
	FRS	China-PAR	PCE	FRS	China-PAR	PCE
Total participants, n	454	454	454	263	263	263
Observed ASCVD events, n	160	160	160	46	46	46
Predicted ASCVD events, n	118.49	59.02	172.07	39.71	29.98	86.26
Expected-observed ratio	0.74	0.37	1.08	0.86	0.65	1.88
Mean predictive risk of morbidity, %	26.1	13	37.9	15.1	11.4	32.8
Mean observed risk of morbidity, %	35.2	35.2	35.2	17.5	17.5	17.5
A	0.618	0.778	0.682	0.815	0.815	0.774
95% CI	0.571–0.665	0.737–0.820	0.629–0.735	0.747–0.882	0.752–0.878	0.703–0.845
R^2	0.065	0.249	0.147	0.307	0.255	0.214
x²	21.89	90.52	51.14	54.04	43.97	36.34
P value	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001

Figure 1 The 10-year absolute CVD risk levels predicted by 3 models.

Figure 2 (A) Discrimination of the 3 equations in men. Framingham (man): AUC = 0.618 95% CI = 0.571–0.665. China-PAR (man): AUC = 0.778 95% CI = 0.737–0.820. PCE (man): AUC = 0.682 95 CI = 0.629–0.735. (B) Discrimination of the 3 equations in women. Framingham (woman): AUC = 0.815 95% CI = 0.747–0.882. China-PAR (woman): AUC = 0.815 95% CI = 0.752–0.878. PCE (woman): AUC = 0.774 95% CI = 0.703–0.845.

Figure 3 Calibration of the 3 equations. (A): X-squared = 1.3964, df = 8, P = 0.994. (B) X-squared = 13.523, df = 8, P = 0.095. (C) X-squared = 25.528, df = 8, P = 0.001. (D) X-squared = 6.1433, df = 8, P = 0.631. (E) X-squared = 7.9098, df = 8, P = 0.442. (F) X-squared = 8.3685, df = 8, P = 0.398.