Advanced search
Publication Cover
Clinical Epidemiology Volume 10, 2018 - Issue
Submit an article Journal homepage
84
Views
6
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
Original Research

Combining statistical techniques to predict postsurgical risk of 1-year mortality for patients with colon cancer

Inmaculada Arostegui1 Department of Applied Mathematics, Statistics and Operations Research, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, Leioa, Bizkaia, Spain;2 Health Services Research on Chronic Patients Network (REDISSEC), Galdakao, Bizkaia, Spain;3 Basque Center for Applied Mathematics – BCAM, Bilbao, Bizkaia, SpainCorrespondence[email protected]
,
Nerea Gonzalez2 Health Services Research on Chronic Patients Network (REDISSEC), Galdakao, Bizkaia, Spain;4 Research Unit, Galdakao-Usansolo Hospital, Galdakao, Bizkaia, Spain
,
Nerea Fernández-de-Larrea5 Environmental and Cancer Epidemiology Unit, National Center of Epidemiology, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain;6 Consortium for Biomedical Research in Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
,
Santiago Lázaro-Aramburu7 General Surgery Service, Galdakao-Usansolo Hospital, Galdakao, Bizkaia, Spain
,
Marisa Baré2 Health Services Research on Chronic Patients Network (REDISSEC), Galdakao, Bizkaia, Spain;8 Clinical Epidemiology and Cancer Screening Unit, Parc Taulí Sabadell-Hospital Universitari, UAB, Sabadell, Barcelona, Spain
,
Maximino Redondo2 Health Services Research on Chronic Patients Network (REDISSEC), Galdakao, Bizkaia, Spain;9 Research Unit, Costa del Sol Hospital, Marbella, Malaga, Spain
,
Cristina Sarasqueta2 Health Services Research on Chronic Patients Network (REDISSEC), Galdakao, Bizkaia, Spain;10 Research Unit, Donostia Hospital, Donostia-San Sebastián, Gipuzkoa, Spain
,
Susana Garcia-Gutierrez2 Health Services Research on Chronic Patients Network (REDISSEC), Galdakao, Bizkaia, Spain;4 Research Unit, Galdakao-Usansolo Hospital, Galdakao, Bizkaia, Spain
,
José M Quintana2 Health Services Research on Chronic Patients Network (REDISSEC), Galdakao, Bizkaia, Spain;4 Research Unit, Galdakao-Usansolo Hospital, Galdakao, Bizkaia, Spain
& On behalf of the REDISSEC CARESS-CCR Group show all
Pages 235-251 | Published online: 06 Mar 2018

Figures & data

Figure 1 Variable importance for the top 30 predictors of 1-year mortality selected by the random forest.

Abbreviations: ASA, American Society of Anesthesiologists; CA, carbohydrate antigen; CEA, carcinoembryonic antigen; CRC, colon or rectum cancer; ICU, intensive care unit; pTNM, histopathologic tumor–node–metastasis.
Figure 1 Variable importance for the top 30 predictors of 1-year mortality selected by the random forest.

Figure 2 Results of the CART analysis for 1-year mortality in the derivation sample.

Notes: Each branch shows the classification variable and each node shows the number of subjects and the estimated probability of 1-year mortality on that node. Final nodes are in bold using different line types for stratified risk groups: low (dotted), medium (dashed), high (dotted dash) and very high (solid). Application to the validation sample is shown below each node in light gray-colored boxes.
Abbreviations: ASA, American Society of Anesthesiologists; CART, classification and regression trees; CCI, Charlson Comorbidity Index; Chem, adjuvant chemotherapy; IntraCom, intraoperative complications; pTNM, histopathologic tumor–node–metastasis; R1y, recurrence of the tumor; ResTum, residual tumor.
Figure 2 Results of the CART analysis for 1-year mortality in the derivation sample.

Table 1 Univariate relation of explanatory variables and 1-year mortality in the derivation sample is shown

Figure 3 ROC curve for predicted 1-year mortality by the CART analyses.

Notes: Solid line applies for derivation sample and dashed line for validation sample. AUC=0.896 and 95% CI is (0.856, 0.936) for derivation sample and AUC=0.835 and 95% CI is (0.776, 0.895) for validation sample. The cut-off point of estimated 1-year mortality risk dichotomization for optimal sensitivity–specificity combination for derivation sample is shown with the corresponding specificity and sensitivity values.
Abbreviations: AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; CART, classification and regression trees; CI, confidence interval; ROC, receiver operating characteristic.
Figure 3 ROC curve for predicted 1-year mortality by the CART analyses.

Table 2 Distribution of the subjects depending on the estimated risk of 1-year mortality

Figure S1 Results of internal validation of the CART analysis by bootstrap resampling (N=2000).

Abbreviation: CART, classification and regression trees.

Figure S1 Results of internal validation of the CART analysis by bootstrap resampling (N=2000).Abbreviation: CART, classification and regression trees.

Table S1 Descriptive statistics for explanatory variables stratified by sample (derivation vs validation)

Table S2 Internal validation of the CART analysis by bootstrap resampling (N=2000)

Related research

People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read.

Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine.

Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.
Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab.