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Clinical Epidemiology Volume 10, 2018 - Issue
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Original Research

The trends and projections in the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in urban Shanghai: a population-based study from 1973 to 2020

Lei Bai1 Institut Pasteur of Shanghai, Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai, China
,
Zhenqiu Liu2 Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China;3 Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
,
Qiwen Fang2 Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China;3 Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China
,
Qiong Yan4 Department of Child and Maternal Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
,
Oumin Shi5 Department of Neurology, Shenzhen Second People’s Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China
,
Pingping Bao6 Department of Chronic Non-Communicable Disease Surveillance, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China
,
Lina Mu7 Department of Epidemiology and Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Health Professions, State University of New York (SUNY) at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA
,
Xingdong Chen8 State Key Laboratory of Genetic Engineering and Collaborative Innovation Center for Genetics and Development, School of Life Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China;9 Fudan University Taizhou Institute of Health Sciences, Taizhou, ChinaCorrespondence[email protected]
&
Tiejun Zhang2 Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China;3 Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Fudan University, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, ChinaCorrespondence[email protected]
 show all
Pages 277-288 | Published online: 09 Mar 2018

Figures & data

Figure 1 Age-standardized incidence and mortality per 100,000 cases of liver cancer in urban Shanghai from 1973 to 2012 stratified by sex and age group.

Abbreviation: ASR, age-standardized incidence rate.
Figure 1 Age-standardized incidence and mortality per 100,000 cases of liver cancer in urban Shanghai from 1973 to 2012 stratified by sex and age group.

Table 1 Incidence of liver cancer in Shanghai from 1973 to 2012

Table 2 The estimated annual percentage changes of liver cancer incidence in Shanghai from 1973 to 2012

Table 3 Mortality of liver cancer in Shanghai from 1973 to 2012

Table 4 The estimated annual percentage changes of liver cancer mortality in Shanghai from 1973 to 2012

Figure 2 Age-standardized incidence and mortality per 100,000 cases of liver cancer in urban Shanghai from 1973 to 2012 by birth cohort and age.

Notes: (A) Incidence in males; (B) incidence in females; (C) mortality in males; (D) mortality in females.

Figure 2 Age-standardized incidence and mortality per 100,000 cases of liver cancer in urban Shanghai from 1973 to 2012 by birth cohort and age.Notes: (A) Incidence in males; (B) incidence in females; (C) mortality in males; (D) mortality in females.

Figure 3 Age-standardized incidence and mortality per 100,000 cases of liver cancer in urban Shanghai from 1973 to 2012 by time period and age.

Notes: (A) Incidence in males; (B) incidence in females; (C) mortality in males; (D) mortality in females.

Figure 3 Age-standardized incidence and mortality per 100,000 cases of liver cancer in urban Shanghai from 1973 to 2012 by time period and age.Notes: (A) Incidence in males; (B) incidence in females; (C) mortality in males; (D) mortality in females.

Figure 4 Age-specific liver cancer incidence and mortality forecasts in urban Shanghai from 2013 to 2020.

Notes: The fan shows the predictive distribution between the 5% and 95% quantile, whereby the shaded bands show prediction intervals in increments of 10%. The predictive mean is shown as a solid line. Observed numbers of cases are shown as an open circle. The vertical dashed line indicates where prediction started. (A) Cancer incidence in men; (B) cancer incidence in women; (C) cancer mortality in men; (D) cancer mortality in women.
Figure 4 Age-specific liver cancer incidence and mortality forecasts in urban Shanghai from 2013 to 2020.

Figure S1 Estimated effects of liver cancer incidence from the age–period–cohort model in males and females from 1973 to 2012 in Shanghai, China.

Notes: The left curve shows the fitted age-specific rates for 105 person-years at risk during the reference cohort (1931.5 in male and 1926.5 in female), the middle curve displays the rate ratios of cohorts relative to the reference cohort (1931.5 in male and 1926.5 in female), and the right curve shows the rate ratios of period conditional on the estimated age and cohort effects relative to the reference period (2005). The open circle in the cohort–effect curve represents the reference birth cohort.

Figure S1 Estimated effects of liver cancer incidence from the age–period–cohort model in males and females from 1973 to 2012 in Shanghai, China.Notes: The left curve shows the fitted age-specific rates for 105 person-years at risk during the reference cohort (1931.5 in male and 1926.5 in female), the middle curve displays the rate ratios of cohorts relative to the reference cohort (1931.5 in male and 1926.5 in female), and the right curve shows the rate ratios of period conditional on the estimated age and cohort effects relative to the reference period (2005). The open circle in the cohort–effect curve represents the reference birth cohort.

Figure S2 Estimated effects of liver cancer mortality from the age–period–cohort model in males and females from 1973 to 2012 in Shanghai, China.

Notes: The left curve shows the fitted age-specific rates for 105 person-years at risk during the reference cohort (1930.5 in male and 1958.5 in female), the middle curve displays the rate ratios of cohorts relative to the reference cohort (1930.5 in male and 1958.5 in female), and the right curve shows the rate ratios of period conditional on the estimated age and cohort effects relative to the reference period (2005). The open circle in cohort–effect curve represents the reference birth cohort.

Figure S2 Estimated effects of liver cancer mortality from the age–period–cohort model in males and females from 1973 to 2012 in Shanghai, China.Notes: The left curve shows the fitted age-specific rates for 105 person-years at risk during the reference cohort (1930.5 in male and 1958.5 in female), the middle curve displays the rate ratios of cohorts relative to the reference cohort (1930.5 in male and 1958.5 in female), and the right curve shows the rate ratios of period conditional on the estimated age and cohort effects relative to the reference period (2005). The open circle in cohort–effect curve represents the reference birth cohort.

Table S1 Fitting of the age–period–cohort models for the liver cancer incidence and mortality in Shanghai from 1973 to 2012

Table S2 The projection of liver cancer incidence in Shanghai from 2013 to 2020 based on the registry data, 1973–2012

Table S3 The projection of liver cancer mortality in Shanghai from 2013 to 2020 based on the registry data, 1973–2012

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