The prognosis of patients hospitalized with a first episode of heart failure, validation of two scores: PREDICE and AHEAD

Figures & data

Table 1 Baseline characteristics and one-year mortality in the PREDICE and AHEAD cohorts

	PREDICE, derivation cohort (N=600)	PREDICE, validation cohort (N=180)	p	AHEAD, derivation cohort (N=5846)	AHEAD, validation cohort* (N=6315)	p
Age [years], mean (± SD)	73.6 (±12.3)	75 (±9.7)	0.16	74	77
Gender [female], n (%)	305 (50.8)	88 (48.9)	0.64	2536 (43.4)	2813 (44.5)	0,20
Ischemic cardiopathy, n (%)	98 (16.3)	18 (10.1)	0.04	1422 (24.3)	2255 (35.7)	<0.001
Atrial fibrillation, n (%)	177 (29.5)	56 (31.1)	0.67	1792 (30.7)	2462 (39)	<0.001
Valvulopathy, n (%)	160 (26.7)	23 (15)	<0.001
HFrEF, n (%)	106 (23.9)	54 (37)	<0.001
Hemoglobin [g/l], mean (± SD)	12.8 (±2.3)	12.3 (±2.2)	0.01	132	124
Sodium [mEq/l], mean (± SD)	138.1 (±4.6)	138.5 (±5)	0.32
Potassium [mEq/l], mean (± SD)	4.3 (±0.7)	4.4 (±0.7)	0.09
eGFR [ml/min], mean (± SD)	73.5 (±38.6)	72.0 (±30.7)	0.63
Beta-blockers, n (%)	188 (31.3)	90 (50.6)	<0.001	2931 (52)	2129 (36)	<0.001
ACE inhibitors, n (%)	328 (54.7)	96 (53.9)	0.75	3327 (59.3)	3357 (56.3)	<0.001
ARBs, n (%)	104 (17.3)	27 (15.3)	0.46	1276 (23)	635 (18)	<0.001
Diuretics, n (%)	439 (73.2)	137 (77)	0.43
Nitrates, n (%)	70 (11.7)	8 (4.9)	0.005
Digoxin, n (%)	152 (25.3)	26 (14.6)	0.002
Statins, n (%)	150 (25)	86 (48.3)	<0.001
Antiaggregants, n (%)	263 (43.8)	83 (46.6)	0.59
Oral anticoagulants, n (%)	203 (33.8)	75 (42.1)	0.05
IBDA, n (%)	537 (89.5)	160 (88.9)	0.82
Charlson Index >2 points, n (%)	77 (12.8)	162 (90)	<0.001
One-year mortality, n (%)	98 (16.3)	40 (22.5)	0.07	800 (13.7)	909 (14.4)

Notes: *GREAT registry. eGFR was estimated with the 4-variable version of the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation.

Abbreviations: SD, standard deviation; HFrEF, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; ACE, angiotensin-converting-enzyme; ARBs, angiotensin-II receptor blockers; IBDA, independent basic daily activities.

Table 2 Baseline characteristics of the PREDICE validation cohort according one-year mortality

	Overall [N=180]	Death [N=40]	Non death [N=140]
Age [years], mean (± SD)	75 (±9.7)	79.9 (±7.8)	73.7 (±9.9)
Gender [female], n (%)	88 (48.9)	17 (42.5)	71 (51.4)
Ischemic cardiopathy, n (%)	18 (10.1)	3 (7.5)	14 (10.2)
Atrial fibrillation, n (%)	56 (31.1)	18 (45)	38 (27.5)
Valvulopathy, n (%)	23 (15)	6 (18.2)	17 (14.4)
HFrEF, n (%)	54 (37)	14 (38.9)	40 (37)
Hemoglobin [g/l], mean (± SD)	12.3 (±2.2)	12.4 (±2.1)	12.3 (±2.2)
Sodium [mEq/l], mean (± SD)	138.5 (±5.0)	137.5 (±6.6)	138.9 (±4.4)
Potassium [mEq/l], mean (± SD)	4.4 (±0.7)	4.6 (±0.8)	4.4 (±0.6)
eGFR, [ml/min], mean (± SD)	72.0 (±30.7)	72.3 (±35.7)	70.8 (±27.9)
Beta-blockers, n (%)	90 (50.6)	14 (36.8)	75 (54.3)
ACE inhibitors, n (%)	96 (53.9)	19 (50)	75 (54.3)
ARBs, n (%)	27 (15.3)	6 (15.8)	20 (14.6)
Diuretics, n (%)	137 (77)	32 (84.2)	103 (74.6)
Nitrates, n (%)	8 (4.9)	5 (13.2)	2 (1.4)
Digoxin, n (%)	26 (14.6)	7 (18.4)	19 (13.8)
Statins, n (%)	86 (48.3)	15 (39.5)	69 (50)
Antiagregants, n (%)	83 (46.6)	17 (44.7)	64 (46.4)
Oral anticoagulants, n (%)	75 (42.1)	20 (52.6)	55 (39.9)
IBDA, n (%)	160 (88.9)	28 (70)	130 (94.2)
Charlson Index >2 points, n (%)	162 (90)	40 (100)	122 (87.1)

Note: eGFR was estimated with the 4-variable version of the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation.

Abbreviations: SD, standard deviation; HFrEF, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; ACE, angiotensin-converting-enzyme; ARBs, angiotensin-II receptor blockers; IBDA, independent basic daily activities.

Figure 1 Model calibration – PREDICE.

Notes: Calibration plot: predicted outcome probabilities (on the x-axis) plotted against observed outcome frequencies (on the y-axis). Perfect predictions should be on the 45° line.

Figure 2 SCORE calibration – PREDICE.

Notes: Calibration plot: predicted outcome probabilities (on the x-axis) plotted against observed outcome frequencies (on the y-axis). Perfect predictions should be on the 45° line.

Figure 3 SCORE calibration – AHEAD (using the development cohort of PREDICE).

Notes: Calibration plot: predicted outcome probabilities (on the x-axis) plotted against observed outcome frequencies (on the y-axis). Perfect predictions should be on the 45° line.

Figure 4 SCORE calibration – AHEAD (using the validation cohort of PREDICE).

Notes: Calibration plot: predicted outcome probabilities (on the x-axis) plotted against observed outcome frequencies (on the y-axis). Perfect predictions should be on the 45° line.