159
Views
2
CrossRef citations to date
0
Altmetric
ORIGINAL RESEARCH

An Explainable Machine Learning Model to Predict Acute Kidney Injury After Cardiac Surgery: A Retrospective Cohort Study

, , , , , , , & show all
Pages 1145-1157 | Received 25 Jan 2023, Accepted 27 Sep 2023, Published online: 03 Dec 2023

Figures & data

Figure 1 Study cohort description.

Figure 1 Study cohort description.

Table 1 Baseline Characteristics of Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery in Derivation and Validation Cohorts

Table 2 Baseline Characteristics in Derivation Cohort

Table 3 Prediction Performance of the Models

Figure 2 Comparison of AUC between LR and Xgboost models in predicting postoperative AKI. (a) derivation cohort. (b) testing cohort.

Abbreviations: AUC, area under curve; Xgboost, eXtreme gradient boosting; LR, logistic regression.
Figure 2 Comparison of AUC between LR and Xgboost models in predicting postoperative AKI. (a) derivation cohort. (b) testing cohort.

Figure 3 Calibration plot of Logistic regression ((a) derivation cohort, (c) testing cohort) and Xgboost model ((b) derivation cohort, (d) testing cohort).

Figure 3 Calibration plot of Logistic regression ((a) derivation cohort, (c) testing cohort) and Xgboost model ((b) derivation cohort, (d) testing cohort).

Figure 4 (a) sHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) summary plot of the top 15 features in the Xgboost model. The higher the SHAP value of a feature, the higher the probability of postoperative AKI development. Each line represents a feature, and a single dot represent each value for each variable observed in the cohort. Purple represents higher feature values, and yellow represents lower feature values. (b) Variable importance of features included in the Xgboost model for prediction of AKI.

Abbreviations: AKI, acute kidney injury; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; NT-proBNP, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; CPB, cardiopulmonary bypass; LVRWT, left ventricular relative wall thickness.
Figure 4 (a) sHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) summary plot of the top 15 features in the Xgboost model. The higher the SHAP value of a feature, the higher the probability of postoperative AKI development. Each line represents a feature, and a single dot represent each value for each variable observed in the cohort. Purple represents higher feature values, and yellow represents lower feature values. (b) Variable importance of features included in the Xgboost model for prediction of AKI.

Figure 5 SHAP dependence plot of the Xgboost model. The SHAP dependence plot shows how a single feature affects the output of the Xgboost prediction model. SHAP values for specific features exceed zero, representing an increased risk of AKI development. (a) Postoperative eGFR; (b) Postoperative creatinine; (c) Preoperative eGFR; (d) Postoperative NT-proBNP; (e) Surgical time; (f) CPB time.

Abbreviations: eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; SHAP, shapley additive explanations.
Figure 5 SHAP dependence plot of the Xgboost model. The SHAP dependence plot shows how a single feature affects the output of the Xgboost prediction model. SHAP values for specific features exceed zero, representing an increased risk of AKI development. (a) Postoperative eGFR; (b) Postoperative creatinine; (c) Preoperative eGFR; (d) Postoperative NT-proBNP; (e) Surgical time; (f) CPB time.