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International Journal of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Volume 16, 2021 - Issue
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Original Research

Prediction of Mortality Using Different COPD Risk Assessments – A 12-Year Follow-Up

Åsa Athlin1 School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, SwedenCorrespondence[email protected]
,
Maaike Giezeman1 School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden;2 Centre for Clinical Research, Region Värmland, Karlstad, Sweden
,
Mikael Hasselgren1 School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden
,
Scott Montgomery3 Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medical Sciences, Örebro University, Örebro, S-701 82, Sweden;4 Clinical Epidemiology Division, Department of Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden;5 Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College, London, UK
,
Karin Lisspers6 Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Family Medicine and Preventive Medicine, Uppsala University, Uppsala, SwedenORCID Iconhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3107-4462
ORCID Icon,
Björn Ställberg6 Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Family Medicine and Preventive Medicine, Uppsala University, Uppsala, SwedenORCID Iconhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8497-7326
ORCID Icon,
Christer Janson7 Department of Medical Sciences, Respiratory, Allergy & Sleep Research, Uppsala University, Uppsala, SwedenORCID Iconhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5093-6980
ORCID Icon &
Josefin Sundh8 Department of Respiratory Medicine, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden
 show all
Pages 665-675 | Published online: 16 Mar 2021

Figures & data

Figure 1 Flowchart patient selection.

Abbreviation: COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Figure 1 Flowchart patient selection.

Table 1 Included Components of Different COPD Assessment Systems

Table 2 Patient Characteristics at Baseline and Characteristics of Alive/Deceased 2017

Figure 2 Mortality rate in each group for each assessment system. Stage refers to lung function, stage 1-FEV1% pred ≥80, stage 2-FEV1% pred 50–79, stage 3-FEV1% pred 30–49, stage 4-FEV1% pred <30.

Abbreviations: GOLD, Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease; DOSE, dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation; ADO, age, dyspnoea, obstruction.
Figure 2 Mortality rate in each group for each assessment system. Stage refers to lung function, stage 1-FEV1% pred ≥80, stage 2-FEV1% pred 50–79, stage 3-FEV1% pred 30–49, stage 4-FEV1% pred <30.

Figure 3 Cumulative 12-year survival for different COPD assessment systems. Lung function, stage 1-FEV1% pred ≥80, stage 2-FEV1% pred 50–79, stage 3-FEV1% pred 30–49, stage 4-FEV1% pred <30.

Abbreviations: GOLD, Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease; DOSE, dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation; ADO, age, dyspnoea, obstruction.
Figure 3 Cumulative 12-year survival for different COPD assessment systems. Lung function, stage 1-FEV1% pred ≥80, stage 2-FEV1% pred 50–79, stage 3-FEV1% pred 30–49, stage 4-FEV1% pred <30.

Table 3 Hazard Ratio for All-Cause, Respiratory and Cardiovascular Mortality. GOLD Group C Excluded

Figure 4 Receiver-operator characteristics for different COPD assessment systems as predictors of all-cause mortality. Area under the curve (AUC) for each assessment system presented. Stage 1–4 refers to lung function.

Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; GOLD, Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease; DOSE, dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation; ADO, age, dyspnoea, obstruction.
Figure 4 Receiver-operator characteristics for different COPD assessment systems as predictors of all-cause mortality. Area under the curve (AUC) for each assessment system presented. Stage 1–4 refers to lung function.

Figure 5 Receiver-operator characteristics for different COPD assessment systems as predictors of respiratory mortality. Area under the curve (AUC) for each assessment system presented. Stage 1–4 refers to lung function.

Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; GOLD, Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease; DOSE, dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation; ADO, age, dyspnoea, obstruction.
Figure 5 Receiver-operator characteristics for different COPD assessment systems as predictors of respiratory mortality. Area under the curve (AUC) for each assessment system presented. Stage 1–4 refers to lung function.

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