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International Journal of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Volume 10, 2015 - Issue
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Original Research

Predicting frequent COPD exacerbations using primary care data

Marjan Kerkhof1 Research in Real-Life, Cambridge, UK
,
Daryl Freeman2 Mundesley Medical Centre, Norfolk, UK
,
Rupert Jones3 Plymouth University Peninsula School of Medicine and Dentistry, Plymouth, UK
,
Alison Chisholm4 Respiratory Effectiveness Group, Cambridge, UK
&
David B Price1 Research in Real-Life, Cambridge, UK;5 Academic Primary Care, Division of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UKCorrespondence[email protected]
Pages 2439-2450 | Published online: 09 Nov 2015

Figures & data

Figure 1 Patient selection in the database.

Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; CAT, COPD Assessment Test; OPCRD, Optimum Patient Care Research Database; FEV1, forced expiratory volume in 1 second; FVC, forced vital capacity.
Figure 1 Patient selection in the database.

Table 1 Baseline characteristics of all patients and of the two subpopulations

Table 2 Number of exacerbations in baseline and outcome years

Table 3 Univariable predictors of two or more COPD exacerbations in the outcome year in the total population data set (N=16,565)

Table 4 Significant multivariable predictors of two or more COPD exacerbations in the outcome year in the total population data set (N=16,565)

Figure 2 Calibration plot of observed versus predicted risk using the full developmental model (N=16,565).

Figure 2 Calibration plot of observed versus predicted risk using the full developmental model (N=16,565).

Table 5 Significant multivariable predictors of two or more COPD exacerbations in the outcome year among subpopulations

Figure 3 Calibration plot (25 groups of 108–109 observations) of the observed versus predicted risk after applying the model to the validation cohort (N=2,713).

Figure 3 Calibration plot (25 groups of 108–109 observations) of the observed versus predicted risk after applying the model to the validation cohort (N=2,713).

Table S1 Baseline mMRC scores, DOSE index scores, and GOLD groups based on mMRC score

Table S2 Baseline characteristics of the validation cohort

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